The Unstoppable Omicron -- a foreseeable end for the Covid-19 pandemic?

Omicron is now confirmed to be less deadly and more contagious than Delta.

Why? The omicron virus appears to have borrowed a DNA sequence that is common in human cells, and other viruses that infect us including most colds viruses and even HIV. This may be the genetic factor that helps it be more infectious and less lethal.

WHO continues to claim Omicron has caused no deaths so far. By the way we have counted deaths in this pandemic, this is obviously impossible. Omicron has spread worldwide and is highly infectious. The number of cases now must be in the millions, perhaps tens to hundreds of millions. We will know that most of the population in a region has been exposed when the pandemic wave peaks and the number of cases stops growing.

For a typical million people, 1000 must die every month. To see that, think that people live about 1000 months (100 years at 10 months a year). Thus, in a typical million, 1 in 1000 die every month. In the month with Omicron, there should be more. We see that through the doubling of excess deaths South Africa.

If Omicron wasn't killing anyone, but we count natural deaths occuring while infected as Omicron deaths, like we did with other Covid fatalities in this pandemic, the lowest possible theoretical mortality for the one week long Omicron iness is 0.025%. That is a bit more than one tenth of Delta.

Any virus, even the most mild cold, should increase mortality a little bit. As the pandemic wave affects the entire population roughly at the same time, even a mild increase in mortality and morbidity will have a visible effect on the health system and media.

The good news, however, is that the new Omicron will likely replace Delta in a few days in most places and a few weeks worldwide. This will bring the Covid-19 mortality in the region of unremarkable colds. It will no longer be at the high end of the mortality spectrum among the over 200 respiratory viruses that infect us.