Covid-19 and politics

Our current world has been very much shaped by cold viruses even without a Covid-19 epidemic/pandemic. We lose more productivity to colds than to any other illness. Some conditions, like obesity, appear to be linked to cold viruses (adenovirus 36). 

Respiratory infections can be deadly. We’ve seen it in 1918 — the Spanish flu killed more than all the guns and battles in World War I -- or about 3% of the population. Should another such virus be produced (viruses are relatively easy to edit — insert new genes, add interesting mutations) — the World could be a very deadly place. 

Covid-19 has affected the world so far through the measures we take to protect ourselves against it and not through the number of deaths or people infected. The world is trying to achieve what never seemed remotely possible: to stop a cold from spreading. Most infect a significant part of humanity every year. The corona virus is also very likely to spread around the world.

Note that what I write reflects my own thoughts, which are not representative of any institution I have been part of or graduated from or of other people.

Below is the political situation, as I see it:

— The US needs a war. A US President who starts wars always seems to get reelected. It has thus become a habit for the US to use war as a regular tool when they need to reelect a president. It has already happened a few times. Americans are more likely to reelect a president that has already been in office if the world is scary.

— One of the main electoral promises of the Trump administration was to bring China down and make America great again. China is down. House sales are down. Building has stopped. Prices have dropped. All manufacturing is severely affected. New car sales dropped by a factor of 20.

It would have taken a lot of bombs and an almighty war to have a similar effect on China.

— Trump has many enemies. It would be difficult for him and his team to leave power without a high risk of jail.

— Trump stands to benefit massively from the Covid-19 media storm. Without it, we would have heard a lot more about impeachment and the funny vote where nearly all people in Congress voted according to the direction of their party. This is typical of kangaroo courts in Belarus or Rwanda and not a democracy where members of Congress are supposed to be independent thinkers, fairly immune from prosecution and putting America’s interest at heart. It is impossible for such similar independent thinkers to independently reach conclusions that are exactly what their party dictates.

— Trump has clear dictatorial and dynastic ambitions. A war situation will help him be reelected and increase his chances to appoint a successor and establish a dynasty. His administration will also be able to rule by decree or twitter, which they also like.

— In China, Xi wants to increase his power as dictator and not step down like a peace time president. War is good for dictators. He wants the power, even at the expense of the Chinese people and ultimately of the rest of the world.

Covid-19 allowed military rule and dictatorial powers to be rolled allover China overnight. Their response to the epidemic has been brutal. People with cold symptoms are often thrown in quarantine institutions that might resemble concentration camps or jails. In most videos I’ve seen from Chinese hospitals and quarantine centres, people appear to wear ski trousers, many sweaters and very thick winter jackets. This suggest an indoor temperature between -10 and 10 C. Not exactly the best conditions to cure any sickness. Measures to prevent viral transmission between patients in a quarantine centre appear to be almost non-existent. The beds are close together in large common dormitories. There are many viruses circulating in such centres. Thus, a patient is likely to come in with one virus and, if they come out, be infected with several. It thus seems certain that people who stay home and drink tea have a much higher survival rate than those who go to the field hospitals.

I would presume that people with interesting political views are more likely to be infected with Covid-19, and more likely to die once quarantined. There have been a few notable cases, including the doctor who first discovered the virus, despite the very low mortality rate in their population group. The cremation of dead people appears to be expedited. No family members are allowed to inspect the body before cremation. Thus, no one can actually tell if bullet holes are present. Controversial transfusions are also used to treat Covid19. It would be interesting to see if the blood group match is statistically correlated with political considerations.

— In Russia, Putin also wants to become more of a dictator than he is. He wants to change the constitution, so he can be forever in power. War is good for dictators.

— European Union is the last bastion of democracy. Reinstating borders across EU could mean the end of free movement, the end of the EU as a coherent player on the world scene, and much decrease Europe’s influence in the world.

So far Italy has the most cases of the virus. Its economy and tourism are taking a down-turn. Up to today 17 have died with most being elderly and sick with pre-existent conditions. The youngest of the reported victims was 62, was waiting for a kidney transplant and having dialysis. Most victims likely had a life expectancy measured in months.

This morning, I woke up to the news that a train was turned around at the Austrian border. Was coming from Italy and the Austrians learned just two people with a cold were on board. The number is very low for what’s expected this time of the year. Yet, the train was turned back. I couldn’t help my mind not notice Austria’s most notable citizen was Hitler.

— In Japan, the Diamond Princess was an example of what is likely to happen to the world in the next few weeks. Again, the 4 people who died were old and far from healthy. The funny thing is that, after putting the ship in quarantine, the people were sent home. They were infectious and carrying a virus for which there is no cure. It looks scary and containing the virus in places at war, like Ukraine or Iran seems silly to attempt. At sea, it is cheaper, better, safer. The normal time to end that quarantine would be when everyone is dead or cured and no new cases happen for a month.  

Will it all end? 
There is a chance that we will see society reengineered to decrease the general cold transmission factor below 1 in winter, as it currently is during summer. This transmission factor is the number of people each sick person is, on average, expected to infect. When the transmission factor is over 1, the epidemic grows exponentially. When under 1, it dies away.

There are some places, like California where this is already the case. In other places, like London, it appears to be very difficult.

It would be truly remarkable if the transmission factor has indeed been lowered below 1 in China.

If we decide to reengineer society and prevent it from spreading, serious changes could lie ahead. So far, we don’t seem to be doing much. The flu, which looks the same and spreads in the same way doesn’t seem to slow down at all this year. So far it looks like this virus is here to stay, just like the many more viruses that cause respiratory infections that exist already.

Can we count the number of infected patients right? The short answer is no. So, take any numbers you see with a grain of salt. There is currently no reasonable way for all members of the public to get tested for Covid-19. It is unlikely for PCR testing kits to be available in sufficient numbers for testing to become a viable option before you become infected. 

What to do if sick with a cold? Most of the time, no treatment is necessary or available. The health care system is not likely to cope with the large number of cases. Thus, the most reasonable course of action, if you or your family members become sick with a cold is to stay home and drink tea. Keep warm, stay happy, enjoy some fruits, and avoid spreading it when you can. Unless your situation is severe and death imminent, visiting a GP or hospital is likely to cause more harm than good, both to you and other patients. Colds should be treated with a bit more respect and care as the current political situation calls for some extra care — the best way you can treat a cold at home.

Basic health precautions

— Children, employers and employees should stay home when they have a cold. Ideally, they should stay home from the first symptoms until a day or two after the symptoms disappear. Again, overall gain may be higher, assuming a reasonable intellectual stimulation at home. The main purpose of school and work is gain and not just showing up -- however, this view, while true, is difficult to enforce.

— If your family situation does not include grandparents or other people who can stay at home with the children, it is likely that, in this period, employers will tolerate absences that are the result of having a child who can be potentially infectious or does not wish to attend school.

— Avoid carnivals, drunken parties and other situations where cold transmission is likely to occur. Covid-19 is transmitted like any other cold.

— Dress warm in cold weather.  

— Wash hands.

— Masks don’t appear to work too well, but you may wish to have one for political reasons

— Vitamin D is generally a good thing, although sun is better.

Money worries. We are likely to see significant and permanent changes in stock market, housing market and other parameters of our society. Think carefully if making an investment or taking a loan. Be careful with your investments. There is a serious possibility of significant changes in both stock market and residential property values all over the world. 

The memory of a cold from yesterday

In the last few weeks, we have seen major war-like changes around the world. China, the world’s largest manufacturing economy and exporter of goods, has been nearly shut down. Iran, South Korea and Italy are in trouble and we are all likely to catch the Covid-19, although the virus itself might not appear to be so scary if one is young and healthy, the world is changing because of it. I thus thought it is appropriate to share with you some personal thoughts on the matter -- I broke my text in two parts: this first post tells a story from my past and in the second one I will discuss a bit of world politics as I understand it today.

It was 26 years ago on a sunny day of February that my Grandfather died of pneumonia. 

Grandma, Mother, Dad, and Grandpa in one of the forests he had planted

He was 89 years old and had suffered a stroke 6 months earlier. I remember it started as a cold with a sniffle. A little sneaky sneeze here and there — as opposed to the rather powerful sneezes I had witnessed from him in other years.

Grandma, Grandpa and Mother

He had a running nose, and it looked like he had gotten a little extra energy. He walked to the window for the first time in half a year to wave goodbye to us and life.

A week later, as I came home from school on Friday, he was in a coma. A few hours more and he was gone.

The cold that lead to his pneumonia was probably brought home with love and, maybe with a kiss, by one of the people he loved most. Maybe the ones who went to school. He loved us more than life itself.

No one tested positive or had notable symptoms, but we knew all about asymptomatic colds at the time. Yet, it was never mentioned that we might have brought home the virus. It was just God that sent for Grandpa. An Angel, a virus and a kiss let him spread his wings and fly away from the jail his body has become.

My Mother later went to sort the papers. The doctor signed without an autopsy because everyone agreed that his time had come. It is not that we did not cry. We all did cry until we had no tears left. Even at 89 he had such a strong personality, we could not imagine life without him, but we also understood he had to go.

me and Grandpa

A younger Grandpa 

The funeral was Sunday, and then Grandma cried for her son. He lost him to a fierce virus — Polio — some 50 years prior. After all those years, her pain was raw still, and her heart still broken. Teodorita, their son, was five when he died. He had been the soul and brain of any gathering of kids and had he lived he could have done so much. For Grandpa, she’d just smile and say he lived his life in full, and gone in time. Not a sad thing — just the right time. 

Today, we see a virus just like the one that Grandpa used to spread his wings cause panic on unprecedented scale. Many of the victims, outside China, are people much like Grandpa. Perhaps less healthy still  (when we were growing up we knew Grandpa was allergic to Aspirin, and so never took pills; he also did not drink alcohol, did not smoke, ate in moderation and had no detrimental habits beyond getting us to do extra math problems when we were busy playing).

The world is trying to achieve what never seemed remotely possible: to stop a cold virus from spreading. It’s never actually been done.

"Fereastra catre Stiinta": Edward's talk on Gravitational Waves and David's talk on Atomics Clocks

In September 2019, we were invited to participate in the second edition of the festival "Fereastra catre Stiinta" from Tecuci. Its aim is science popularization. We are staunch supporters of "Fereastra catre stiinta" and we hope more cities will support such programs. We note that the foundation is supported by C.C.D.P.U Bendis and that beyond the extraordinary enthusiasm and power of volunteers coming from all over the country or in vacation from other countries, they had sponsors that offered the venue, and, e.g., for us, paid the hotel room.

After a 30 hour sitting-up train + bus trip from Lugoj to Tecuci, Edward and David gave their talk from Cornell on how to stop global warming and then Edward spoke about gravitational waves and David about atomic clocks. At night we went stargazing -- everything was organized by volunteers. Bogdan Gheorghiu (one of the primary organizers of the meeting and the owner of the telescope) also had a laser that could point to specific constellations. It was wonderful to see so much enthusiasm and to see this taking place in Romania.

 James, my mom, and I were also there. I gave a seminar discussing my women in science work in Romanian. The children did a great job -- especially given the circumstances.

Note that the videos are available on youtube and that the children are counting the number of views and likes they receive there. While such counting can be quite addictive, it is their work and they are rightfully proud of it.

The next day we took the train back home -- this time through Iasi since the route through Bucharest no longer had available sleeping compartments and we did not want to experience another almost sleep-free night. In the station as the train was leaving we could see a young woman dressed in tights surrounded by two boyfriends. She was slapping one of them over the face while he was holding his hands in a begging-like posture. The other was looking on, seemingly proud of her and of his ability to win her over competition. We could not understand what they were saying because the train was making more noise than them -- although she was loud, too -- but the silent scene was sufficient in itself. I suppose it reminded us that women can be bullies, too (or perhaps that all is fair in love and war or of a video with penguins fighting over partners) and that one can inspire this public devotion. But it mostly made me think of devotion to science, and of the way proving it is perceived in academia (and sometimes in industry, too) as having to surpass all obstacles and various forms of abuse -- a thought I did not share with my children because I do not want them to be discouraged yet. Of course, other jobs are not so different.

Should we be worried about the Coronavirus?

As the coronavirus in China grabs headlines, one worries if it detracts attention from more important aspects.  Should we worry about it? My understanding is that the answer today is no, not at this point or at least not as much as we need to worry about the flu season. The coronavirus is affecting the global economy bringing the US markets back to 2008 levels, and has crashed China's economy. China's car sales dropped by 92% in the first half of February and other sectors followed, e.g., home sales froze, new apartment sales plummeted by 97%. It's been good for the climate so far because of the various shut downs in China, and like any variation it's been good for business for the few people/companies who buy and sell things and can adjust to the circumstances.

Another aspect is that China produces for the world for which it is sacrificing its air and water and now some of its people.  Factories mean lots of people working close together. No country is ready to deal with an epidemic, and China is no exception. The rest of the world should learn from this and help or at least try to help, and we don't see this happening.

How does the coronavirus compare with the flu?

In the US, more than 10 000 people died in the 2019-2020 flu season so far, and around 200 000 were hospitalised. This means 5-6% of people hospitalised died. However, the death rate from the flu is reported to be around 0.1%. From the corona virus, well over a 1000 people died so far out of 42000 cases (note that my numbers are not updated automatically; for the latest look at worldometer that reports the number of cases or at the John Hopkins site; the numbers should coincide). This means about 2-3% of the people who were confirmed to have the disease died. Of course, it is expected that not everyone who contacted the virus knows they have it because the symptoms are similar to that of the flu. The number of cases in China are dropping, which means the virus has been contained. They do say it is spreading faster and so it's unclear the spreading will stop as of yet.

Viruses have no treatment beyond treating the symptoms, which is why they are scary. Viruses also mutate fairly easily. For the flu, they are typically about three to four vaccines that circulate each season and more viruses. So, vaccines are not always efficient and they change from season to season.

The scariest flu pandemic that killed three times as many people as WWI....was way, way worse

The flu pandemic in the 1918 had more than 50 million deaths worldwide, and about 675000 deaths in the US alone.  Note that world population was less than 2 billion then. This means around 3% of the population died. To compare, today the US population is about 330 million people, and 0.003% of them died of the flu this season. China's population is 1.4 billion and so the number of people who died from the corona virus or the flu or both is likewise negligible. Since the corona virus is mostly contained to China, it is not a pandemic, but an epidemic.

What is the coronavirus?
The coronaviruses get their name from the shape they have under the electron microscope, which magnifies much more than a regular microscope (up to 5000 times more) because it uses a beam of really fast electrons and is not limited by diffraction. It can thus see the halo or corona around each virus particle. The spikes on the viral envelope specify how viruses bind to certain receptors on the host cells and determine viral infectivity. Corona viruses are a family of viruses that cause illnesses ranging form the common cold to more severe respiratory illnesses observed in the middle east to the new strain observed in China, which has not been identified in humans before. Because of their structure coronaviruses are zoonotic, which means they are transmitted between animals and people. This means there are some strains that circulate among animals that have not been observed in people.  This new strain from China is called the 2019-nCov and has not been previously observed in people before. See more, e.g., on the World Health Organization site.  While the virus is zoonotic, I am thankful there were no chicken or pigs to kill this time.

Negative impact on China's economy and potentially on the world's economy

China has been shutting down factories, schools and plants to stop the spread of the virus. The streets are empty in many towns. This is slowing down its economy and will affect the world economy as well. If it continues prices will go up, and consumerism might have to take a break or pay more for the various items. It is a, hopefully, brief test on how frail the economy is, and how dependent the rest of the world is on China.

Where there is loss, there is gain...
However, the price drop, if temporary, will be advantageous for others who might, e.g., buy rough products now and resell them later as things go back to normal. While there is some gain and plenty of loss when any variation occurs, globally it is unclear to me which economy has to gain most from China's loss. 

Positive impact on the climate so far

The shut-down due to the corona virus will reduce CO2 emissions. It will be interesting to see how measurable the effect is. The estimates are that China's CO2 emissions should drop by 1% or more, which is more than Romania's yearly emission. The price of products like palm oil (and iron ore and other rough materials) has been dropping because China is its second largest buyer. The increase in the use of palm oil has caused extensive deforestation, which is extremely detrimental to the environment.

Lasting positive effects?
I don't see any so far beyond the drop in CO2 emissions, which is significant, but perhaps I am wrong. It does dominate the world news. So, we see less of Trump and other candidates and Brexit while they prepare to look good.

The April Heat
The US president informs us that the coronavirus infection will go away with the April heat. While we are used to laughing at his comments, in this case the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention does agree with the president saying the infection might be a flu-like seasonal outbreak that could temper off as the weather improves and perhaps appear again in the cold months. The flu likes cold, dry weather, and the coronavirus could be similar.

The Life-price
The avian flu resulted in the killing of millions of chickens -- most without testing and the swine flu resulted in the killing of pigs -- again, most were healthy and most were untested. They both caused the closing of companies in areas where one or two infected animals might have been found and in the taking of millions of innocent lives in a pointless fashion -- just to be burned and not even used as a resource. The coronavirus is resulting in the burning of people. Are they all tested? Were they all properly cared for?

One can see the high SO2 around Chongquing and Wuhan, two areas most seriously affected by the virus. SO2 can come from the burning of bodies or from industry. While most of the sulfur has been reported to come from steel mills in Wuhan and the large body count theory seems to be a hoax,  the bodies of the dead from the coronavirus are being burned. Note that cremation has been compulsory in China partly because they simply do not have the extra space for graveyards like we do in Europe.

One still wonders what are the conditions in the makeshift hospitals? has it suddenly become easier to get rid of people in China? if they have money or if they disturb the order somehow or if they are undesirable for whatever reason? does the coronavirus make it easier to take money and power and life away from some and give the money and power to others? Colds and flu viruses are notoriously difficult to contain. Are we asking the impossible while facilitating the mistreatment and potentially the killing and burning innocent people? and destroying China's economy in the process?

Note that I am not interested in promoting any kind of conspiracy theories and I am not an expert in viruses or anything related. This post is just me sharing what I have read and what I understand about the coronavirus so far.

I end my post by quoting explanations from a colleague in China. She basically tells us that China closed the infected areas, which was a big sacrifice, and that the virus appears contained at this point. But since her comments are very insightful and she has access to first hand information, while I do not, I will quote her mot-a-mot below.

"The threshold for confirmation of the nCoV infection were set very high, one has to both showing symptoms (cough/fever/headache/etc.), showing signs in CT, then he/she was entitled for the RNA kit test. In Wuhan, since the kit were made in a rush and the false alarm/false dismissal rate was very high, one has to show two times positive to be identified as infected. So a lot of tragedy we saw online was about people actually showing symptoms and very severe physical conditions, but since the limited access to the RNA kit (the production speed is less than the demand), a lot of patients died without ever being identified. No identification leads to no treatment (the overburdened medical service just can't handle every patients) and patients in Wuhan, especially who had severe symptoms, were wishing to be identified as positive. So on the contrary, there are more people got sick, died, cremated than the official reported number. The good news is the threshold for identification has been changed yesterday [February 12], which led to a huge increase in the number of confirmed cases yesterday.  For the makeshift hospitals, by reading between the lines, the main function is not to treat the patients, but to isolate them from healthy people. As we know it people get cured through their own immune system. Due to the low fatal rate, many people can just recover by themselves, and if the condition get worse, they would be transferred to get more formal treatment. By setting up makeshift hospitals, patients get isolated and spread could be cut off.

Wuhan, Hubei and China made sacrifice on different levels to contain the virus. Looking back towards the development, the CDC performed a wonderful job in identifying the virus and report it to politicians very timely before 3rd Jan. However, the bureaucracy delayed the treatment significantly and Chinese citizens are making acute critics towards the government on that. After the shutdown of the city, however, I think it is the best any city/province/country can ever done towards treating the virus. On a personal level I know patients in Wuhan had a ten times higher fatal rate than if they were in other places, and I feel very sorry for them. But with that sacrifice, I think the development of the nCoV is showing a sign of being contained. It could have been much, much worse, if no such measures were taken."

How to stop global warming? By David and Edward (Cornell talk)

David (12 years old) and Edward (9 years old) gave a talk at Cornell University in September. I finally posted it on youtube at their insistence. All the drawings minus the pie chart are made by the speakers.


The link and the video are below:

How to stop global warming?

While it's not perfect, it is their first public talk at a university and I am glad it happened at Cornell -- my alma mater for graduate school. They spent about two weeks preparing and drawing for it, and I am proud of them. Below is the poster we made and Ira printed (for those of you who are not regular readers -- Ira and Saul were my PhD advisors). It was posted in the elevator and on all the boards on the 6th floor of the Space Sciences building. I enjoyed seeing them give a talk at the same place where I gave my first seminars (same room, perhaps different projector, same faculty, and other graduate students). While the recording is done by my phone, one can hear what they say. I did not post the questions session because they were too truthful in some ways and I do not want to embarrass them for the future.

While I am a biased observer, and I am not a climate scientist, I find their point of view interesting and I think we need to listen more to their generation and include them in our decisions -- especially the decisions we take that might affect their future vs. giving our vote to older and older leaders and to those who have no interest in upsetting their donors by addressing climate issues.