Monday, December 13, 2021

Omicron - all over the UK. Happy Omicron Xmas!

Omicron seems to bring the Corona pandemic to a swift end. As of today, December 13, In London, 44% of new Corona infections are Omicron, with cases doubling every 2 to 3 days. Models estimate the number of new Omicron infections to be 200 000 a day in the UK. If they double every 2 to 3 days, we should have 1000 more in about one month. That is 3 times the population of the UK. Thus, the virus will run out of people, probably this year.

The rest of the world will follow a few short days later. My guess is that Omicron immunity works against Delta, while Delta immunity doesn't work well against Omicron. This would mean the Delta variant will be phased out soon.

Omicron is mild, well in the range of the common colds we are used to. As it outcompetes Delta, the Corona pandemic will become the usual cold pandemic we experience every winter.

Sure, there is the worst case scenario, when Omicron is so different from Delta that Omicron infection doesn't offer immunity against Delta. That would suck, as both Delta and Omicron would continue to propagate independently. While possible, I don't believe this scenario to be likely.

Thus, we should wish our friends and family a happy Omicron this Christmas. Looks like almost no one will escape it. As we are allowed to stay home when sick, we should all have a mild cold. Maybe some cough. Hopefully, no pneumonia.

Note: I have vaccinated and I recommend vaccination!

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