The Second Wave

In February, I estimated the mortality rate of Covid-19 at 0.2%. So far, this limit seems to hold. There are no countries or large areas where the virus has proven more deadly.

Sure, there’s New York where 0.17% of people have died and New Jersey with 0.18%. If we look closely, county by county and suburb by suburb, we have Bronx with 0.34%.  However, Bronx has a high obesity rate, and more uninsured and poor black people who appear to be more susceptible to COVID-19. These factors naturally contribute to a higher COVID-19 mortality. Overall, the 0.2% estimate seems to hold, as a rough, but reliable guideline.

This makes COVID-19 about twice as deadly as the common flu. It has interesting complications involving the brain, heart, lungs and other organs. This is not unheard of for viruses — just think of Adenovirus 36 that is strongly linked to obesity. Colds, themselves, are caused by a wide variety of viruses including coronaviruses. So, COVID-19, welcome to the clan!

In this article, I want to look at the future. What will happen in the next few months, when fall brings lower temperatures, more rain and more … colds. COVID-19 is now firmly established as an endemic virus across the globe. No country has been spared. OK, perhaps North Korea, but it is hard to believe the North Koreans! From New York to South Sudan, we all face the same virus and, like with all viruses, modern medicine can do remarkably little to help. Thus, we should not expect to see across Africa or Brazil vastly higher mortality rates than we have seen across NY or London. In fact, India has reported a lower mortality rate in Mumbai's slums than Western Europe has because they have a younger population and because they have likely tested more.

In hindsight, the dominant feature of the first wave was rapid onset with a fast exponential growth in cases and deaths. This was due to the novelty of the virus. Everyone was susceptible and the R-factor (the number of people the average patient passes the virus to before getting cured) was high.

This R-factor depends on various things such as
— immunity — if half of the population is immune, R will halve.
— weather. Colds don’t like summer.
— social distancing

— school, work, public transport use.

Now, through various measure and through the grace of God’s summer, we the people, have brought R well below 1. This led to an exponential decay in the number of cases, but the virus has not disappeared. It may never go away. At least not in the near future.

In the second wave, the R-factor will be close to 1. It will inch slowly above 1, as cold weather makes us more susceptible to colds and people naturally share viruses more efficiently in the fall because they spend more time inside in the proximity of other people.

Thus, we will see an increase in cases, but it will be much slower than in the first wave. It will be like Iran now. The virus is there. Some people are dying, but the numbers do not change by a factor of 10 a week.

If immunity is long lasting, some places, where almost the entire population was infected will not see a serious second wave, e.g., India's slums, NYC and NJ if the death rate is what I have predicted.

If immunity doesn’t last long, such places will see a second wave of milder illness. The virus will infect adults for the 2nd time — with far milder symptoms due to some degree of immunity from the first infection. It will also infect children who were breastfed or not yet born during the first wave. Thus, like most other colds, it will do the rounds in day care centers, again, mostly with mild symptoms.

In countries where the quarantine stopped the virus successfully this summer, the second wave will be more substantial. For people who first meet the virus during the winter, we should expect more pneumonia and a higher mortality compared to those first infected in summer. This happens with all colds.

In such places, like Norway, Denmark, Austria, and perhaps parts of Germany and Eastern Europe, where most people appear to have avoided the virus in summer, we will see a lot of death and pneumonia in the fall. Sure, still of the order 0.2%, so not the end of the world. The difference between summer and winter mortality could be substantial.

How about Sweden? Sweden is interesting. Sweden’s first wave mortality was about 0.05% — about a quarter of my 0.2% rough limit. I wonder if they can get away with less. This may be due to the general good health of the Swedish people, their good discipline, good health care and low incidence of obesity. Maybe, in Sweden, this virus only kills 0.1% or, maybe, even less. It will be very interesting to see if Sweden gets and 2nd wave and how it will look like.

Iran, if we believe their numbers, has only lost 10% of the 0.2% I expect. But I am not sure I believe their numbers. I think they may be further along. We’ll see when it stops. Iran is in a stationary state, with R hovering above 1 when it rains or too many people turn on the AC and blow 1 otherwise.

A look in the Southern hemisphere — Chile has nearly reached 0.05% dead while New Zealand and Australia have very low numbers. Argentina is much lower than Chile but still on the growing exponential. Slow growing exponential. So, the Southern hemisphere doesn’t look too bad. We’ll be lucky if we’ll have it so easy in the north.

My 2 cents on politics and policy advice:

Allowing the virus to go though the population during summer will result in some degree of herd immunity. Usually, summer colds are vastly easier than winter colds — less likely to result in complications, pneumonia, etc. Thus, letting the virus go through the population now will, in the long term, save lives. Sweden has dome this experiment and is probably going to be proven right.

Austria, Denmark and Norway will probably see more deaths in the fall and perhaps Eastern Europe, Germany, too if the lockdown is the reason the numbers are low. These countries will be in a particularly bad position as they would have paid the economic cost of the lock downs — children lost school, everyone lost money, and, may have more COVID-19 deaths than if they had done nothing at all.

Italy, Spain, US, the UK and Sweden seem to be managing to pretend to be taking measures against Covid-19, but their mortality rate seems to be the same as if they had done nothing at all. Doing nothing at all to prevent the virus spreading during summer seems to be the best strategy.

I am surprised by New Zealand and Australia — they are in the middle of winter and they seem to have few Covid-19. Although, Australia is seeing an increase in cases at the moment. I didn’t believe their containment strategy would work. We’ll see if the low numbers will lasts until the end of winter.

Across the world, inflation, political instability and war appear unavoidable now.  I worry about my children, and my nephews and about their future. Will David and Edward go to war instead of college? If so, will David fight against or with his siblings in this new twisted world?

General Relativity in Everyday Life

My first seminar at ICCUB is live on youtube!

A note on the questions: I favored field binaries, i.e., binaries that form in the galaxy, over a dense environment/dynamic evolution scenario. Most stars form in binaries because of the way the disc fragments. Then when the stars explode, some remnants stay in binaries. Thus, the field binaries go through a channel that is somewhat better understood -- common envelope, supernova collapse that does not kick the black hole much. However, both scenarios are equally possible at this stage. Neither is ruled out by LIGO data.

The field binaries provenience would be more likely only IF the black holes are born without spin, which they could be due to inefficient angular momentum coupling, but we don't know that this is the case. Naively, one would expect BHs (and NSs) to acquire high spin during the collapse process from a larger to a much smaller object -- it's just that neither BHs nor the observed young neutron stars seem to have much spin. So, either they are born with high spin and there is some mechanism that spins them down like r-modes for neutron stars and super-radiance for black holes as Roberto pointed out during my seminar OR they are born without spin. A proof for super-radiance would be a scenario like Roberto mentioned, where there is high spin below a certain mass, when the super-radiance process is active, and no spin above that mass or the other way around. It would be more interesting to have them born spinning and see the spin-down mechanism at work -- but we have not seen such proof yet. For neutron stars, the most obvious proof would be what LIGO calls continuous waves from, e.g., unstable r-modes in newborn neutron stars, which have a specific gravitational wave frequency at 4/3 x frequency of the star vs. the usual 2 x frequency of the star for mountains, and would hopefully be close enough to identify the source and its environment.

IF they are born with spin, then the globular cluster/dynamic scenario is more likely. Then the BHs are likely to be both spinning and precessing, but the precession would not be visible for the equal mass scenario.

What would be proof that BHs can be born with spin?
Black holes with spin in an equal mass binary would be proof that they are born with spin and that there is some instability that only works in some cases. I don't see that they would have to be large. Perhaps if they are small and we know they are black holes, they are more likely to be born this way and not be the result of a merger.

How to get into highschool in Romania: speak a third language or cheat?

David took his end-of-middle school exam this summer. He passed and will start ninth grade at the best highschool in Lugoj in the German-speaking section, which focuses on natural sciences. Since his grades were far from perfect, he is too embarrassed to write about it himself. I don't suffer from such a huge ego yet. So, I will write my opinion of the process. I will not focus on David since he passed and got into the highschool he wanted and there is not more to say beyond that. I am, however,  shocked because of the reported nation-wide results -- which imply that the only way to go to a good highschool is to speak German, be some other form of minority or cheat. I am fluent in German, and I am good at studying. So, I don't worry about my future in this country or in any other country unless there is another war, but I think it's unfair that almost every child should be doomed to go to schools without many good teachers or be forced to cheat in a so-called still democratic society.

If one looks at Bucharest: Colegiul "Sfantul Sava" -- Matematica-Informatica -- last entrance grade 9.98. Given that grading is relatively subjective, admitting only children with perfect grades is wrong because you don't get diversity, you don't get the best students, you only get the kids whose parents found a way in. But, ok, you'd think Bucharest as the capital with the largest population could have some excuse. 

How about other cities? Colegiul National 'Vasile Alecsandri' -- Galati -- Matematica Informatica -- last entrance grade 9.83. My grandpa is a proud graduate 'Vasile Alecsandri' from 1968. He got in because he was talented, and ended up first in Romania when he took the medical school entrance exam at the end of highschool. Yet, with his grades, he would not have gotten in had he been born 50some years later. In Timisoara, Colegiul National Loga has the last entrance grade of 9.75 for Matematica-Informatica and 9.51 for Natural Sciences. In the Grigore Moisil Highshool the last kid who entered had a grade of 9.49. My mom is a graduate of Grigore Moisil and would not have gotten in today. She has a Cornell PhD and still is one of the most talented women in our country.

Lugoj is a pocket of sanity among thieves. The last GPA for Matematica Informatica is 7.51, which is reasonable. Interestingly enough, the Natural Sciences section -- taught in Romanian -- has a last entrance grade of 7.80 and the last student who got into Umanist section has 7.83. The section where David is had the last entrance grade of 5.74. It is taught in German and has a focus on Natural Sciences. The German section in Colegiul National Banatean has a last entrance grade of 5.92, while Lenau is off charts with a last entrance grade of 9.40 for 'Matematica-Informatica' and 9.17 for Natural Sciences. So, are David's colleagues stupid? are they the dumbest of the dumb? No! They are the Golden Kinder of Lugoj. This is what the teachers call them. Why the nickname? They are 18 of them and they won the Olympiads every year in most subjects. I know because I study in German, too and I am one of the top three in my class. We also won the city's Math Olympiad this past year + a bunch of other contests and olympiads. I was on second place even though I was sick and had high fever that day. OK, the one who got the 5.74 did not win any contests in math or science, but I think he did in sports.

Mom tells me the entrance grade at Grigore Moisil in Timisoara in her time was somewhere above 7. Then half of the seats were known to be sold. Today almost all seats must be sold-off since it cannot be possible for so many children to have perfect or close to perfect grades. So, Bucharest, Craiova, Constanta, Galati, Buzau, Cluj, Timisoara, Iasi did you have to sell the future of all your children? Why wasn't half enough?

Our politicians congratulated the children for doing so well on the exam. But, I wonder, dear leaders, how many of you would score past 7 on this middle school graduation exam? I wager the life of my favorite chicken -- Petunia -- that most of you would fail this exam and certainly none would score over 9.98 to enter the highschool in Bucharest. Should schools be congratulated for selling their children's future and, literally, closing cities to education? Perhaps... in a world where presidents like Donald Trump brag about Acing cognitive tests, which should be given in Old people's home not in the White House, this is the 'new' normal. For me, being Romanian and American, it destroys all hope of normal. But then the US president openly mentioned he could shoot somebody in plain view of thousands and still win, and why should the politicians of Romania be different when corruption here has been a trademark since the end of the last war. Our school system, however, had been one of the best in Eastern Europe. Why ruin it and brag and humiliate what's left of it?

Our leaders mock the children and the schools by congratulating them for theft at a time when most have such fragile egos. And children forget these leaders are inferior beings. OK, they are these really annoying beings in their early teens who care more about appearances than about anything else, but do they deserve to be hurt so? to have their future trashed? Even David who passed and got in exactly where he wanted feels hurt that he did not do better. He spends almost all his time shooting toy pistols (they cost 7 lei, and Andy/dad keeps breaking them because they are both stubborn; grandma says he should be left alone to use them until he gets bored because he keeps buying more and they cost money and resources) or on his phone. He scored  close 7 on the exam -- more than most politicians would score -- I am sure. Of course, he could have easily obtained a higher grade had he studied more. But is three a point to studying? in the world we live in? The scums of the Earth seem in charge everywhere.... how can they deal with a pandemic? with climate change? while they have absolute power?

Thoughts of a former minister of education from WWII

Romania's minister of education during the second world war was Ion Petrovici. His thoughts on education were that even in war school has to continue independent of the problems that the country passes through. He believed that this continuation has to be on equal, steady ground and not be conquered by hardships. In consequence, he surrounded himself with like-minded colleagues who understood the importance of education in spite of the times.*

My grandmother taught mathematics in this period close to the front lines in Balti, Basarabia. All state employees would go through regular pay-cuts also known as sacrificial curves, which meant sometimes they would get paid and at other times they would not, but work and sacrifice went on. She would teach in the day-time and volunteer to help with the wounded after school-time was over. When I was growing up she did not dwell on memories, but did the best she could for us and for the myriad of pets that we brought home. However, as her time came near the end, she did not want a TV or radio or other forms of noise. She would spend the hours reliving her own life. She would see the people she interacted with again, as they were then, and be angry with some of them, and still feel guilty that she did not do enough for others. From her time as a volunteer, her strongest memory was that of a child without external injuries who came to the field hospital only to die in her arms. All she could do was hug him, and at the time she almost felt that the hug could give him life. She also remembered hugging me when I fainted at 10 months old in the same way, and shaking hands with Ion Antonescu who thanked her for her service.

Today we no longer consider education as essential. Before educators struggled to keep kids off the streets. Now, we struggle with keeping them off their phones and are yet happier with online learning since it involves fewer risks and often less effort on both sides. Will the COVID-19 depression be as bottomless as that in the 1930s? will we make it this time?

* Some of Ion Petrovici's thoughts were written down by Ion Zamfirescu in "Oameni pe care i-am cunoscut" ("People I have known"). Ion Zamfirescu, himself, was one of the personalities of the 20th century. He writes how Ion Petrovici asks for his help at the ministry. Also, mentioned is his time as a silent pallbearer for Nicolae Iorga -- the man who outlawed the extreme right movement in 1932 and opposed both fascism and communism. No verbal tribute was allowed in Romania after Iorga's torture and murder by the Iron Guard. The murder outraged the world. More than 40 universities world-wide raised their flag in Iorga's honor... but the war and injustices continued.

How does Ion Petrovici compare with ministers from our time? Well... he was capable and talented -- a person to admire -- whose work lived on independent of politics. At home he studied with/learned from Titu Maiorescu and Nicolae Iorga, while abroad he attended lectures by Wilhelm Wundt and Hans Volkelt in Leipzig and by Friedrich Paulsen, Wilhelm Dilthey and Alois Riehl. 

He stopped writing from 1940 when fascism came to power till 1966. In this period he was sentenced to 10 years of hard labor and once he returned to deportation in Baragan. After all this, he retained his sanity, and had the strength to continue to write about Kant's philosophy and about his own life.  Our leaders can't speak properly -- and often if they publish it's a copy of somebody else's work.

What do antibody tests say? Results from Ischgl

Comprehensive tests were done for 1473 people (1259 adults, 241 children) between April 21st to 27th. These are 79% of the population of Ischgl. 42.4% of them were found to have antibodies, which is 6x more than those that tested positive earlier via PCR tests. This means 85% had Covid19 were asymptomatic. However, herd immunity still cannot be assumed. The majority of cases was of age 18-60 years. They will do more tests to see if the antibodies were retained. Two people died from the pandemic and 9 were hospitalized, which is consistent with Mihai's estimate.

This article was translated and pointed out by Werner.

To teach or not to teach -- in person?

 Students at all levels consider online teaching to be sub-par education. This is especially true in the US, where education is so expensive. I happen to agree with the students. We already have a problem in that people of all ages spend too much time online, and the COVID-19 rules have exacerbated this problem. I see this with David first hand -- who can no longer be separated from his phone. The most important part of the college experience and of school is social interaction. The networks one builds and the friends one makes play an important role not only in how we make use of the knowledge acquired, but also in motivating us to acquire the aforesaid knowledge in the first place. Teenagers particularly seem to need their peers in order to study since it's an age when they no longer listen to their family. This being said, online teaching is a tool just like books are tools, and the COVID-19 environment offers us an opportunity to perfect this tool.

What about heath risks? How deadly is COVID-19?

The highest death rate in the world was in NY and NJ. There the COVID-19 deaths reported per million was close to or slightly over 1700, which imply a death rate 0.17% -- slightly under Mihai's 0.2% estimate from early data of the pandemic. Mihai did a more careful estimate, and ended up with similar numbers within a factor of 2. The number of new deaths in these states is close to zero today -- they have flattened the curve. If Mihai's estimate is correct, this would be because a form of herd immunity has been reached in populated areas of NY and NJ, where a second wave is not expected. Other states, however, have catching up to do. Of course, the numbers will vary based on factors such as population distribution, its poverty, and heath, and likely on the weather, too. Air conditioning systems play a primary role in transmissions in states such as CA and AZ.

Anyhow, if all states are to reach the NY and NJ death rate, more will die -- and we will see that if the counting continues. Of course, if the death rate is higher, things will be worse everywhere.

In the US the number of cases are roughly 10000/million, which is about 1%. The number of deaths so far are 400 per million, which is 0.04% -- a factor of 5 off from Mihai's 0.2%. If 4 to 5 times more people have to die, that is scary. The hope is that they missed many asymptomatic carriers. They would have to have missed 60 times the number of cases for moderate safety from COVID-19. This is not impossible since it seems that over 80% of people are asymptomatic. However, most predict a second wave is expected in the fall.

Can we create a safe environment? e.g., put the professor behind a plastic screen like we do with those who sell in stores, make the groups of students smaller to maintain some form of distancing, and so on. 

I would say this is not realistic -- just like it's not realistic to maintain spacing in flights. If one thinks of first and second year classes, where there are hundreds of students, the proposal is to split the students in smaller groups. This means much more teaching in the same room, which cannot effectively be cleaned. Teaching many times in a row is tiring, and it's unclear the chances of getting sick would be smaller than teaching once in front of a larger group of people. On the other hand, splitting students in smaller groups results in more attention to each individual, which is good for the student. It's, however, a question of having enough professors to do this effectively without overworking them.

The average age of a full professor is 55 in the US. This puts them in the higher risk zone. While many are healthier than the average US population, the risk is still there. Andy said that the director/dean who forces professors to go back to teaching should attend every funeral personally. I hope it won't come to that. Also, note that while professors are mostly old, and some have pre-existent conditions, not all who teach are full professors -- many are not.

Given the correlation between age and mortality, perhaps a solution would be to have the teaching in person done by those who are younger, and can meet with multiple groups of students without getting sick.

 

Is education an essential service? Well... it was seen so in WWI and WWII. Independent of how many bombs fell, and of what happened politically, schools continued to teach.

Should education continue during a pandemic independent of the price paid? It's hard to say. NYC kept schools open during the 1918 pandemic. They said it kept children off the streets. Now, school keeps children off their phone IF done in person. The children who spend a lot of time on their phone are absent and cannot see around themselves anymore. This zombie child/young person of the 21st century is more scary to me than the pandemic itself. Young people should have goals and should want to do things, and somehow the various mobile devices are more often robbing them of a future instead of enabling one. Of course, the phone is tool as is the computer -- tools that are being misused.

What about Romania?

Romania has had 20-30 recorded deaths a day at the peak of the pandemic. The average number who die daily is 800 due to all causes. While there is a second peak, so far the numbers are small, and well within the ability of the system to handle them. For example, Odobescu and Bega -- the two major state hospitals that specialize in Obstetrics and Gynecology in Timisoara -- have split work: Odobescu handles the cases with negative COVID-19 results and Bega handles the ones with positive COVID-19 results. So far I've been told the number of births Bega handled has been zero.

Most things have opened -- not schools because it's summer -- but I hope the relaxation will continue. As of today, it seems that quarantine is no longer enforced and even people with a positive COVID-19 test can go home after signing a form that they have conditions to isolate, but that it is now a recommendation and since it's not a law it can no longer be enforced. Since we had very few cases we could afford to hospitalize every one of them. However, Germany and other countries in Western Europe have only hospitalized cases that needed treatment. So, it may be that there won't be many repercussions from Romania finally taking the same approach.

Most of Eastern Europe is in a similar situation with relatively low numbers of COVID-19 deaths, and secondary peaks occurring. These are peaks in the noise relative to what happened in most of Western Europe or America.