Monday, December 13, 2021

How mild is Omicron?

Despite the very large number of cases, there is only one death in the UK. With 200 000 people infected yesterday, there should have been more, even if Omicron doesn't kill anyone directly.

How many deaths? can we estimate?
People live about 30 000 days (think 100 years at 300 days a year). Thus, for every 30 000 days lived, one should die once. Within 200 000 people having been infected yesterday, there should have been 6 deaths. If only one is found it means that we are either not counting or Omicron is actually preventing people from dying, which would indeed be very strange.

What happens in South Africa?
South Africa now shows 40 000 new Omicron infections a day (it must be all Omicron there by now), and barely any deaths. The real number of Omicron infections should be close to the total population and it should peak very soon. Most people in South Africa must be coughing or sneezing now, as it happens most winters (although it's mid-summer there). The summer should make Omicron milder in Africa than what we expect in Europe. The younger African population should also result in lower mortality and less severe disease than what we expect in Europe and America, where the populations is older and many are kept alive by good healthcare systems.

Still, a cold is a cold and if it continues to be this mild Omicron will fit into "the just a cold scenario". Of course, then December 2021 would not be the first time a new cold virus has swept through the EU, but it will be the best monitored cold in the histoy of mankind. We'll survive it. Well, most of us...

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