Thursday, October 21, 2021

Living in fear

I've been lucky. Nobody I hold dear has died of COVID-19 this fall, but every morning I wake up and wonder how long my luck will hold. My mother and I have vaccinated twice. Our second doze of Astra Zeneca was in June and so we are still not due for a third vaccine, and we are in Spain, for now. The children are not vaccinated because they are not over 12 (Edward is 11). Are we safe? is everyone we love safe? and is it right to worry over safety for so long?

In the taxi to the airport, our driver, who is vaccinated, and is pro-vaccination told us a proverb. He said that during the COVID-19 pandemic: "Saracii se spala pe maini si bogatii spala banii" (the poor wash their hand, while the rich launder money). While no market has crashed yet, a crash seems imminent. Romania is one of the nations that seems below all others in the EU in vaccination rate, and in medical care. It is not random. We've had a war against vaccination led by the press and by churches. Why? Is scaring people stiff an experiment? Since we don't have the Euro, perhaps it means that there is more to take without crashing the EU. Perhaps there is more to gain by extending the crisis.

So many people I know and love have not vaccinated because they are afraid. I cannot convince them otherwise. Every time the numbers drop, I hope for a return to normalcy, whatever that is. Schools will open on Monday (November 8?). Should they? I no longer know.

Thursday, October 7, 2021

A sad record: Romania is number 1 ... in COVID deaths/day/capita worldwide

Yesterday, October 6th, Romania set a sad record. We have the highest daily Corona mortality worldwide.

We counted 328 Corona-related deaths yesterday. This places us 5th in the world by this overall number, up from 7th place a day before and behind the US, Russia, Mexico and Brazil. These are, however, much larger countries, exceeding our population by a factor between 7 (Russia) and 17(US).

If we look at the other countries, and their population, we are World's Number 1.

To put things in perspective, the number isn't that extraordinary. More technologically advanced nations have been there and the world didn't come to an end.

Germany peaked at 1244 deaths in one day, in January. Considering that their population is between 4 and 5 times larger, our absolute number isn't that extraordinary. Unlike Germany, our current epidemic shows no clear signs of slowing down yet, although, it will soon stop, as it happened everywhere else in the world. We are not that special.

Romania's average annual mortality rate is 1.32%. This corresponds do an average daily toll of 687 people. This number varies naturally by 10-20 % in most years due to the weather and various viruses live the common cold and flu that go around. 50% is a lot, but not the end of the world.

But ... we have a vaccine. The vaccine works. The vaccine has been available to all, and turned down by most since May. Our vaccination rate, at just over 30% is one of the lowest among first world countries (are we??).

I have spoken before against shutting down the world for the sake of a debatable, small reduction in Corona-related mortality. But, now, we have a vaccine. The vaccine works. Why die when there is no reason to die?

Our people -- mostly old and sick -- have chosen to decline the vaccine and now choose to die for no good reason. Younger people may suffer with long Covid for months to come -- in most cases cough and not so deadly ill health. It's all good when there is no other way, but, now, we have a vaccine. It's easy to get vaacinated, and it's free. Still, we choose to die. Why, people, why?

The good news is that, despite the very high current mortality, the country remains open. Some schools have closed, but only if they have more than 50% of their classes closed due COVID. Many are in session. Airports operate. Hotels, shops and everything else work -- everything shuts down early, but they open again in the morning. About 70% of the population isn't vaccinated, but, in my view, most people have been previously infected. Thus, what this data shows is that natural immunity doesn't work well against COVID-19 and even a second infection can be deadly.

Vaccines do work, but, it seems, just like the natural immunity, for a limited time only. Thus, we are probably looking at a future where we will have to get infected or vaccinated against this Coronavirus every season, just like the flu.

Where will the current wave of unnecessary deaths and infections stop? Will we pass the US, Russia, Mexico and Brazil like we passed India and Ukraine the day before? My guess is that, when the numbers for the next few days come in, we'll pass some, but not all of these countries. And, it will not be the end of the world. I wish we'd have managed and regarded earlier waves of this pandemic as we do now. Still, this didn't have to happen. People didn't have to die. In countries with good vaccination rates, like the UK, Spain and Germany, the current wave of COVID-19 infections, while present and not small, leads to very few deaths, compared to previous waves.

Romania, Russia, Ukraine and Bulgaria have decided to avoid vaccination and have another wave. God bless those who survive and those who won't.

I thank Dr. Katja Herges for long and useful discussions.

Graphs: Worldometer

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/romania/

Friday, October 1, 2021

The lack of sparrows and women: signs of a dangerously unhealthy environment

The sparrow population is declining around the world. While they still appear in rural areas, you almost don't see them in cities any more.

So, why should I care, it's an invasive species anyhow? Well, because biodiversity measures environmental health. If cities around the world get to the point where sparrows find it hard to surrvive, it means the environment is very unhealthy, i.e., we have a problem. Now, dragging sparrows to cities from other areas will not solve our problem. They have left for a reason. Research published in the journal Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution found that a combination of poor diet and air pollution induced physical stress on house sparrows, leading to reduced reproductive success. Cities now lack both the spilled grain and natural seeds (we cut our grass often), and use poison to destroy unwanted vegetation and to kill bugs and other pests. This leads to starvation of the sparrow chicks and often to the poisoning and starvation of sparrows themselves.

Women are sometimes compared to sparrows, and it's not complimentary. I am, however, going to try to make this parallel useful. I will compare the sparrow decline and the decline of the number of women in science (and at the top of most fields). The number of women in science is very low as is the number of women in leadership positions. It decreased during the pandemic. Just like with the sparrows, the lack of women in science (and in leadership in general) is a sign of a problem. Diversity is a measure of the health of the environment, whether we are dealing with birds or humans. Women are half of the population. If the environment is healthy, it will contain sparrows. You will all agree it does not make sense to drag one or two sparrows to the middle of the city and claim to solve the sparrow decline. Well, similarly, hiring one or two women does not solve the lack of women in science problem. Neither does building huge committees, subpackages and subgroups to evaluate every hire. A change in the environment is required. This type of change improves the situation for everyone. Then if the environment is healthy, there will be women.

I once asked the leader of a project with many sub-packages in Zurich that aimed to help women stay in science for help when I did not receive maternity leave after the birth of my second child and had to quit science. I found out that the right exists only if the child is born within six weeks of the end of the contract (note that every country has its own set of rules; this is/was true for Switzerland). If James had been born on his due date or before that he would have had that right. However, James chose to be a week late, which was 7 days too late to have any rights. Then I asked the Swiss National Science Foundation, and the director of the Equality Section answered personally and told me she quit science because she had two children herself. I also asked the rector and pro-rector, social security office, etc and all of them assured me I had no right to maternity leave because my contract would have ended anyhow, which was true.

The university was quite aggressive in stating I had no right to maternity leave, and made me feel guilty instead of trying to change the system. They wrote I travelled in the summer and that I was paid. They said I actually quit earlier, and stated that I should be grateful they paid me as long as they did. I went to the US and gave a number of technical seminars, which were reimbursed, when I was 7 months pregnant with James. I also went to Romania before that so that I could leave my children with my mom. It was my last chance to give talks and be paid, and I took it. They wrote I should have staid unpaid in Switzerland after giving birth and not go to the US or Romania before that. I had the right to stay, but it would have used all my savings. They also said that while I told the institute/department I was pregnant, I did not report directly to human resouces and the department is under no oblitation to do so. In fact, for this reason most pregnancies of students and staff go unreported. Human resources did say that if they had known early enough they would have tried to work some special arrangement around the university rules and perhaps find a way to provide some maternity leave (my postdoctoral advisor at the time said nothing can be done because grants don't come with provisions for materinity leave, which is correct). My position had been for 5 years, and the rule in Switzerland is that if they extended it for any amount of time, they would have had to make it permanent, and then fire me with a 1 month old baby or something like that, which would have also made them look bad.

Oh, and there was no child care unless one registered in advance for more than a year. Again, the building I worked in had never seen a woman in a temporary position with children before me, and nothing changed with me or after me. I was able to work with my first child because my mother quit her job as a doctor to help. She is an outsdanding doctor who has saved more lives than she can count. So, she sacrificed her career and stopped saving lives to help me, but when my father's health was declining, she wanted to go back.

I even talked to some members of the press. One journalist thought about my story for three weeks, and then called me to tell me it was a non-story. I then got together with three other talented collegues, and wrote a technical article on women in scicence. I talked to a sociologist colleague at Portsmouth (they have the Athena Swan program) to try to get it published in one of their journals to get their attention. She said she was unaware things were that bad, read the paper, thought about it for six months and than said she had no time and passed me to another colleague, who thought about it for a year, then passed me to yet another person (who was finishing her thesis and clearly had no time). The last person said it can be at most a series of blog posts, which Christine (one of the co-authors) had suggested we do from the beginning. I was very tired of trying anything else at this point, and my formerly enthusiastic co-authors had lost interest. I tried to accept that what I wrote or said was clearly not going to change anything, and I moved on or thought I did. Just like with climate change everyone knows there is a problem, but nobody is willing to help in a way that actually makes a difference. And the higher one goes (rector, pro-rector, etc) the less they care -- postdocs and students are like insects for them. They want to keep their positions and be comfortable, they don't want to make changes that last. It does not matter how many insects they step on.

For sparrows, one of the problems is the lack of nesting spaces. You have shinny buildings and not enough trees. For women, making sure the women on your staff and your students have the right to maternity leave (and paternity leave) is a good first step for any university and for any company. All grants should have that (and not just fancy grants with a name). If an employee gives births, funds should be received for maternity leave. If the grant does not come with that, the university should ensure maternity leave. There should childcare on campus. Also, if a conference is organized, there should be child care so that parents can come with their children. It is not asking for the moon. It's simply asking for basic human rights. There should also be provisions in case of illness. Many scientists are not in their home country, and will not have the same rights as citizens. Particularly with mental health becoming more of a problem, universities should think about these issues and propose solutions that work.

In 2017, MIT succeeded in reaching 50% women (up from 13%) in Mechanical Engineering after modernizing their courses and their recruiting . Unfortunately, the experiment was not repeated at other universities around the world, or even in MIT's other departments. It, however, shows that the gap can be closed, but there is no willingness to do so. Just like with the fight for the environment: we play make believe games and give them fancy names. We don't try to solve problems. We pretend we do.

Why so few? Well, the females of most species have the desire to survive. This is why they take themselves out of toxic environments. All the males are not necessary. So, they are more likely to risk their lives and sanity and to lose it. It does not make the environment good or the men in it superior. I have three boys. I'd like them to be happy, and to do what they love while staying sane. Note that humans have managed to bypass this natural bias for survival and built toxic environments that have more women then men. In that sense one might call what's happening in science less toxic than the low number of men in some fields because it's a natural inclination, e.g., sociology, the fashion world, etc have many women, but seem way more toxic than the hard sciences to me.

I have always been shy. It has been difficult (and still is) to talk to strangers, to ask questions, and to speak in front of audiences. One way of coping with this is to imagine your audience as various animals (it also makes me laugh at random times when somebody is talking to me and I should not laugh). I sometimes imagine mine as horses with blinders on. Each looks at a wall. Some have very deep vision and understanding. So, they look at all the bumps and valleys on the wall in front of them and can understand them very well. Then they complain that the day only has 24 hours, and they have no time to look at parts of the wall that is not straight ahead of them. This lack of time is very common, and I understand it because I feel it myself. I will soon get an office with a blank wall that I will examine very carefully to make my institute and department happy.