As the new variant eliminates deadly Delta, the deaths should slow down. As seen so far in both in the UK and South Africa, Omicron cases are not associated with a discernible increase in deaths. Thus, it seems that Omicron is no longer the kind of cold that kills people. Long Covid and the need for intensive care are also less common. There is strong evidence to suggest Omicron is just a regular cold, and not the worst cold in 10 years.
Restrictions are again on the rise. However, I argue that they are counter productive and ultimately will be associated with an increase in deaths. I expect the spreading Omicron to be associated with a decrease in hospitalizations and deaths, followed by a period of herd immunity, with nearly no hospitalizations and no deaths.
Lockdowns slow both Delta and Omicron, with Omicron probably less vulnerable. Thus, lockdowns do decrease the number of daily deaths and hospitalizations. Not sure they decrease the overall number, but the problem gets spread over a longer time.
All in all, in my view, lockdowns do not provide a good return on investment. Thus, we 'pay' too much for every life we save. In other words, the same resources allocated elsewhere would probably save more lives. However, this global hysteria induced in the name of a virus has never been about saving lives...
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