Happy new year!

Both 2020 and 2021 have been so dreary that I have forgotted how to be cheerful. They seemed to merge into one long year for me. With my father ill, it was difficult to write without neglecting him and so Mihai took over some of the blog posting. My blog became an analysis of the COVID pandemic. He declares it's over. And to celebrate the occasion he finally agreed to shave. He had not shaved since the beginning of the pandemic. So, my mother, the children and I are relieved that he looks human again vs. the former preambulating hay stack.

In these two years of haos I have taken decisions I did not believe I would ever have to take.

1. In July 2020, I gave birth at home because the hospitals were closed. They had closed just as I went into labor because they came across one positive COVID-19 patient, who happened to be asymptomatic. They had a "zero-case" policy back then. Most of the doctors and staff were in quarantine since they had been in the hospital in that one situation, which happend between shifts. However, a basement in one of the hospitals was opened for emergencies, and staffed by some over-worked residents. Furthermore, the rule was that in case of successful deliveries all babies would be separated from the mother, and taken care by the understaffed hospital for about a week just in case the mother turned out to be COVID-19 positive. This was during a heat wave and so all the doctors and staff dressed in bunny suits and looked like they needed assistance themselves.

The very strick regulations were harmful and made so little sense and the fear of having somebody do the wrong thing without meaning to be wrong scared me so much that I stayed home. I chose to give birth at home even though I knew from the pre-natal scan that my son had a very long ombilical cord that was wrapped around his neck. I am lucky that my mother is a retired gynecologist, and was able to help me through the birth process, which turned out well -- my baby was only slightly blue when he came out. When I took the decision to stay home, I knew that if complications arose she could not have saved the baby in the home-setting. Of course, any pain killers, C-section or medication were out of the question. After it was all over, the baby was sleeping on the bed, and I went to drink some water. When I returned, I found the cat curled around him. He had moved to be surrounded by Bendemolina. They were both sleeping peacefully. And, no, I did not take pictures. Neither did my mother during or after the birth process. I was relived and grateful that we were alive. I could not write about it until now either. Little Ira is 1 year and 1/2.

2. In September 2020 I admitted failure to raising four children and taking care of my father. So, I sent David to Germany to be with Mihai, and when that failed to work well to California to be with his mother. In November 2020 he was brave enough to take a one-way flight alone in the middle of the pandemic from Germany to Los Angeles. At almost 15, David is now in a top highschool in Arcadia. He took Chinese in his first semester and Advanced Mathematics and Biology in addition to the standard courses. He has also joined the boy scouts and bikes across the mountains there. I am proud of him.

3. In early March 2021 my father's blood stopped flowing properly and started overclotting, mostly in the lower part of his good leg. This was after almost four years of hemiplegia due to a series of hemoralgic strokes. Hospitals would not admit him because they were overwhelmed by the pandemic. Soon part of his leg turned dark. I learned a lot about the balance between various medications and mechanical procedures, we bathed his foot frequently, we tried to relive the pressure through small incisions, etc. Nothing really worked well enough to solve the problem. In time, the body started eliminating areas of his leg. He lost the ability to move the foot, and it shrank and parts of it fell off leaving the tendon exposed. We fought death on a daily basis and won for three months in a row. It seemed the overclotting was self-limiting. Then in June 2021 everything stopped working. My father died on June 8. He would have been 71 on August 8.

4. Towards the end of May 2021, I did not think things could get any worse. But they did. My mom started to have heart issues: high pulse, unequal beats, fibrilation. Then Edward and James went outside to play with some children from the neighborhood without me. I could not go with them, and asked them not go, but the children insisted, and said they'd be gone just 20 minutes. They overstaid, and just when they wanted to come back home, one of the kids pushed Edward off a train container in front of his mother (we live near the train station, which has some old containers that were once used by workers). Edward stopped the fall with his arm and broke all four bones: the clavicle, the humerus, the ulna and radius. The humerus bone could be seen almost pushing the skin, but not quite.

My mom went to the hospital with Edward. The hospial was a mess because of the pandemic. There was no ambulatory treatment any more. Everyone had to come in, take a COVID test, and stay in the hospital to get treated. There was no longer a septic and a-septic section of the hospital, which increased the number of infections. They set his arm, and put an old-fashioned cast on, but were too overwhelmed to do anything else and the arm started healing. After almost two days of waiting in a room with infected patients, we decided against surgery, which was recommended by the doctors there. My mother and I took the responsibility of going against their advice. My father suggested we wait until he dies, and then hire his therapist for Edward. He said that would help Edward and therapist, who would relearn how efficient therapy is when the person is young. Edward has since recovered and forgets which is his right hand and which is his left hand again. The cast was on for two weeks, and came off the day my father died, and therapy was necessary for one month after that.

5. In September 2021 I have accepted a Maria de Maestro postdoctoral fellowship in Barcelona to restart my career in science. This Xmas I bought a house about an hour away (not the one mentioned in a previous post; the owner had a debt that was too large, and could not sell it) and moved in. It's a new beginning and like all beginnings it's hard. I have pulled out all the little roots I had formed in Romania, and all the people and animals who have helped me are left behind. I have felt alone then and I feel alone now. But life moves on and I am grateful that my children are healthy, and that my mother is still with me and able to help. Andy has been here for the past three weeks, and helped us move. He will leave on Jan 4 because he starts teaching then.

6. How can I help? I would be grateful if some of you downloaded Edward's book. It's available on Amazon at https://www.amazon.com/Common-Birds-Uncommon-Talent-Narcissus/dp/B09KN2QR6Y/ and it's free on the 1st and 2nd of January. It is our pandemic project, and I have mismanaging the advertising. If you can share it with friends, it could help even more.

In Ghost Vendrell

We go rollerblading in Ghost Vendrell. The children named this area so beacause it has streets, cross walks, and parking spots, and even bus stops, but the streets are blocked so cars can't pass. People walk their dogs and bike here with their children. The buildings have been demolished, and the bus stops are torn and vandalized. They were demolished long enough ago for thorns to grow over the rubbish, and for rabbits to build burrows all over. However, it's clear there were once houses here with water, power, and even a school. The water and power is still in place. It's only been cut off.

On one of the former bus stops there is a drawing. It stands out. It has a heart surrounded by the thorny bushes that now cover the area. Does is symblolize the heart of the people who had once lived here? How much of their hearts did they leave behind? How did they lose their homes? Why did this happen?

Then on a nearby fence one can see the symbol of communism: the hammer and the sickle. This is not the only area with ruins in El Vendrell. There are several demolished areas. Some are downtown, and one is right at then end of my street. Those in the center are fenced up. However, this is the largest. It is so large it cannot be fenced off. Among the ruins there are olive trees and bushes. There are even some bits of structures left. One has a chair in front of it. It means somebody lives there now: a homeless person. One house has parts of a pool left, and as we passed James looked in, and somebody said "Ola!".

Most of the trash is in the areas where one can still drive right before the blocked part. The areas through which one can only walk are cleaner. What will the future bring? Will they build new buildings? or will the rabbits and olive trees remain? Will my street end up like this soon enough?

Sleeping Beauty's Castle

We went hiking and found a castle in the woods. The rock walls were covered in thick thorny bushes. Some might make berries later in the season. It looked just as I imagined sleeping beauty's castle to be after 100 years. It even had a tower, and a dungeon under the tower, which was almost filled by a combination of debris and some trash. While the trash is omipresent wherever one goes, it is never part of any dreams or stories. We pretend it does not exist.

This building is not marked on any map. So, I don't know its true story. It could have been bombed during the war and then abandoned. Perhaps it sheltered people then, and each had a story to tell, or perhaps it is even older. Is the dungeon an opening of a tunnel that goes under the hills? I don't think so, but I did not go down there to find out. Why? There are so many homeless people in Spain that I, generally, refrain from exploring delapidated basements because I don't want to intrude.

This castle had a certain eerie beauty to it that made it hard to miss. Some other pictures are below. James was the first to enter. There is even a window. Edward and little Ira look through it. But overall, it would have been difficult for prince charming to do much here. It's a pity that they don't turn this kind of buildings into museums or at least into stopping points along the hiking trail with a bit of history attached. Of course, they would not make you feel like you've discovered them then. It's wonderful and sad in the same time to see nature take over a structure almost completely. Then on the way back my one year old fell asleep and I had to carry him home. It was quite a challenge, which reminds me I am getting older and barely able to carry my youngest sleeping beauty.

A picture is worth a thousand words?

When asked to draw something other than rabbits, James drew ... another rabbit, and then a large animal who looks somewhat like a rabbit, which might show he is a little stubborn. I have to say the large animal seems happy and the rabbit looks a little defiant. He later ripped the drawing, but I stuck it back together because I thought it was cute.

His second drawing is of me with the two characteristics that must stand out to him: my uncombed hair (I seldomly have time to shower or brush it) and my unequal breasts. I have three boys and I've breastfed each of them for about 3 years (last last one might still have 1 year and a half to go) and has a preference for climbing on things and selectively jumping off them, which keep me and my mother on edge. As far as breastfeeding goes, they each had a preference for one side. They did not each prefer the same side and so the unequalness has shifted with a period of three years. Then Edward added a goat and a chicken to the page. He was only reusing the paper. There was too much blank space. Note that we have no pets in Spain as of yet, and we are not planning to get any.

I'll be turning 40 in the fall of 2022. When we moved to Barcelona Edward and I met a friend for some mail and he told me: "she must have been good looking once. Now she looks like a Barbie doll that has been left out for too long in the sand." The expression has stuck with me. It's an interesting way of looking at getting old. Of course, I wonder if that's how I look, too. So far James' picture is the best (and only) charicature I've seen of me. James is five and Edward is 11, and considers himself a reliable adult. When I was their age, 40something seemed so ancient. Now 60 no longer seems so old.

James does not color. He draws. Most of his pictures have a story attached to them, too. The ducks and rabbits build many bathrooms, buy houses, and leave building materials wherever they go. I was just hoping to get him to diversify. But sadly after the above drawings he went back to his ducks and rabbits.

It's Over!

I hereby declare the COVID-19 Pandemic over on January 1, 2022 (the date is approximate). At least, any shadow of a medical reason for this geopolitical movement we call COVID-19 pandemic is gone.

Just like with the gladiator fights in ancient Rome or the Corrida in Spain, a good show needs blood. In the Corona pandemic, the blood was provided by the millions of people dying spectacular deaths gasping for air. Some were hooked up to ventilators, in overcrowded hospitals run by zombie doctors, themselves infected and sleep deprived.

Sure, there was a virus, and there were deaths. Our measures and show, however, had very little impact on those deaths. Furthermore, we reacted far more to the 0.2% of us dying of Corona when infected, than to the 0.1% of us dying of all causes every month.

Now, Covid-19, has mutated sufficiently to no longer cause deaths. Its latest incarnation, Omicron, is very much a common cold and less deadly than the average flu. The virus is far more contagious than before. Thus pandemic wave comes to an end much faster, infecting everyone and killing no one, just like the common colds do.

We may continue the circus, but historians of the future will agree that, as of January 1, 2022, the circus has no base in reality because

--Omicron is not deadly
-- Omicron is so contagious that resistance is futile. Thus, even if it was deadly, there was nothing we can do.

The whole world and many countries show a clear Omicron signal. The new infections are raising very quickly, and, a few days later, in countries that are far enough along, falling again. The Omicron signal is a very sharp rise in cases. The deaths don't rise. People don't die because the virus no longer goes down to the lungs. Thus this unprecedented number of cases is not correlated with deaths.

Notes on individual countries.

South Africa is already going over Omicron. The number of cases goes down, as most people have been exposed and are now immune. There is no rise in deaths.

Russia and Germany don't have much Omicron yet. Thus, cases and deaths correlate like before.

Denmark has some deaths. Maybe Omicron mixed with Delta? The rise in cases isn't as sharp as would be expected of Omicron.

All other countries shown have Omicron - sharp rise in cases. No deaths. Below are cases and deaths for Italy, the UK, the US and Australia.

The truth about the duck

From our renowned printing house I announce that stories of Narcissus, the result of a transatlantic Indo-European collaboration, are free on January 1st and January 2nd. The book is brought to you by Amazon. Feel free to download it using the link below.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B09KN2QR6Y

Narcissus, the transgender duck, is still alive and happy. He lives in our garden, under a cherry tree and enjoys swimming in a muddy pond built by Edward.

Narcissus (and other birds) is what is left today from the once mighty dinosaurs. He's got a very long genome that allows birds to be very diverse. Also, grace to their once huge size, birds have great mutation repair mechanisms and very little cancer.

Narcissus had two wives and they all enjoyed a great family life in the pond. During the COVID-19 lock down, they laid eggs and, once enough eggs were laid, the wives became broody and retired to their nests, each taking care of a bunch of eggs.

Then, surprise, surprise, Narcissus himself became broody. He also went to a hidden bunch of eggs and laid on them, to keep them warm. Weeks rolled by and the two broody ducks started to lose weight. Their red faces became more and more pale. They ate less and less, as life was flowing out of them, while waiting for the ducklings to hatch.

Then, one day, the children became worried that the ducks may die. They decided to conduct a Caesarean section on some of the eggs and see if indeed there are ducklings inside. As so much time has passed, the children thought the risk of a premature chick being born was low. But, instead of ducklings, the eggs contained an almighty stinky mess. There was not a single duckling in all the very many eggs. The whole garden and the whole neighbourhood, perhaps the whole city stank to high heavens. But, having aborted the eggs, all ducks returned to a normal life in the garden.

Next year, if we have the same three ducks, we'll make omelettes instead.

As being transgender is quite controversial, Narcissus likes to keep his secret throughout the book. He is rather discreet about his sexuality.

Have a look on Amazon, download the book and leave only good reviews!!

All free on January 1st!

Happy New Year!

Mihai

P.S. This note started as an email. My children loved it, and so it morphed into this post.

Brave new world

I wish I could travel back in time and show the current Europe to the younger me. A few years ago, I would have though the world we live in now, with all its comical rules taken so seriously by so many would be good for Charlie Hebdo's front page.

A few days ago, I was heaving a heated conversation with a pretty and unmasked friend. As she spoke, a few drops of saliva landed on my hand, as it has happened so many times in the past. In the past it was something I would have ignored. It happened often enough in lecture halls when I took the front row and when various professors known for spitting took the podium. Now, I seriously thought to bring the incident to her attention, and, for a second, considered taking her to task for exposing me to her version of COVID-19. Then I thought I'd better look in the mirror before speaking. I was wearing a mask, but I have not shaved since COVID-19 started, nor cut my hair much. How many bacteria does my beard spread? I wanted to let it grow to make a statement -- but now when I look in the mirror I remember the Amish in central Pennsylvania. Only they shave the beard around their mouth for cleaness.

How do normal people, politicians and health experts interact today? It's certainly something of interest. I am vaccinated, boosted, and I test myself when there is any suspicion of COVID-19. But is that enough? How long should we continue to be afraid of each other?

Who would have thought that, in XXI century, we will have a new class division?

The upper class can ride trains, planes and, on occasions, even travel internationally.

The lower class, best known as untouchables, must sit at home most of the time, sometimes under house arrest, sometimes just advised to avoid contact with others. Yet they are the ones who work in factories, mines and fields, and feed and dress the upper class. International travel is tabu and forbidden for them most of the time, with very few exceptions. Many untouchables are darker in color and have an accent. They tend to have more children and live in crowded conditions. These untouchables cannot use the trains buses or subway. They cannot ride the tram and must use the stairs, not the lift. Untouchables cannot eat in a restaurant and cannot sleep in a hotel. When they travel illegally by train somewhere, if they make it, they must sleep with friends, or under the bridge. Friends who allow untouchables in their houses are few and far between. Such friends are hard to find, as having touched an untouchable, you can be excluded from interaction with the upper class until a cleansing ritual has been completed.

The upper class can still enjoy a luxurious life. They expect to keep a safe distance from each other and, above all from untouchables. It is common for an upper class old lady to occupy 4 seats and a table in the train and advice anyone trying to seat next to her of her desire for luxury, space and privacy. In the name of the State, the suspect untouchable should look for a seat elsewhere or stand by the door.

In XXI century Germany, only members of the upper class can use the train. For work or fun, whenever using public transport, you must demonstrate your upper class by:

-- wearing a thing over your nose. It must be government approved. Only a few brands and manufacturers are allowed.

-- have another thing in your blood. Again, must be government approved. Only a few brands and manufacturers are permitted. The list is short and varies by county.

-- carry a phone with a QR code that demonstrates you have the correct thing in your blood.

Should the phone battery die or the phone break down, get lost or stolen, you are banned from all upper class privileges. Thus, you can't using public transport, you must sleep under the bridge and cannot travel internationally, until you get a new phone and find a way to display the correct QR code. For the unskilled or inexperienced, the process can be long or impossible. I look at the old people staying in line to pay their bills in person. It's hard to tell how many of them are vaccinated or can display their QR code.

I sit in the train next to an empty table. At one station, a bunch of people join the train. Two of them look like normal upper class people. The other two are underclass. Their noses are running. They wear no masks are are ready to kill everyone with their COVID-19 viruses. Not only me, but the whole train. They jump and run and talk and spit, filling the air with the scent of death. They touch the table with their slimy hands. The train must be thoroughly disinfected after their departure. Oh, I wish the people who used my table were not such...

The worst criminals of all are children. They spend their time together. They interact with people, and, in particular, with others from the same very dangerous criminal sector. They take the freedom to spread death in trains, planes and other crowded places: a bit like rabbis wearing the Star of David and preaching the truth of the Torrah before the Holocaust. Most people dying of old age have encountered such a criminal within a month of death. It could have been a brief encounter, as most are. Sometimes, a sneeze or some crying at the other end of the bus is enough. But, almost all people who died this year encountered a child during their last month alive.

In other countries, children were jailed in the only jail that could be created large enough to hold them all -- the HOME. In Spain children were not allowed outside for any reason in a first lockdown that lasted many months. In the Philippines, they were jailed for over one year -- the thousand beaches of the Philippines were cleaned of the infantile scourge and pest. One of the few remaining freedoms bestowed upon the children by the government, through its infinite kindness and grace is the freedom to consent and submit to sexual activity, starting at the age of 12. Such activity is seen as far more reasonable and less dangerous than going to school or walking in the park.

All this happened because there is a Chinese virus going around the world. The virus is so bad that it can kill. Some of those it kills are old people. Some are also sick. Others might only get a runny nose and a sore throat. It is not only like a cold. It is a cold that sometimes kills. Genetically speaking, the virus was always a cold. Its latest version, omicron, is mild -- perhaps more like a very normal cold. It comes with runny nose, which makes it spread efficiently and no longer goes down to the lungs, which was the deadly bit. But, as the virus morphs into a regular cold, the old world remains shut. The world order has changed. We now dream of a brave new world: a world without the common cold. Perhaps, a world where people live forever and children are never born.

I dread this brave new world -- it's a scary utopia -- it's a world that choses fear and isolation over our health and that our children, and yet pretends to try to save us and do the best it can while hurting the most vulnerable. AND like most utopias it makes no sense. It's funny and sad in the same time, just the same way communism was.

How deadly is omicron?

From the first UK death reported on December 13, we are, as of Dec 21, still doing pretty well.

The virus doubles every 2 days, and we were counting 14 deaths on Dec 20. From the 45000 confirmed cases, only 129 ended in hospital and 14 died. That is, roughly, one death every 3000 cases.

For comparison, the rough estimate for previous versions of COVID-19 is one death in 500 people , or 0.2%, which I have calculated in February 2020 and published on this blog since March 2020.

Assuming that
-- all people are infected with the Delta variant, which is almost true in some countries like Romania and not true in Germany,
-- no untested people are infected with Omicron, which is certainly not true. A reasonable estimate for the total number of British cases is 2 million a day, and doubling every 2 days.

Under the above assumptions, omicron will still be 6 times less deadly than Delta, which gives a very rough upper bound.

As people live roughly 30 000 days (think 100 years x 300 days/year), you do expect 1.5 deaths for every 45000 days lived and 60 for every 2 000 000 days lived. If there are indeed 2 000 000 daily cases, and only 14 deaths, Omicron must prevent people from dying. This is, however, unlikely. Some of the positives who died of other causes may have not been tested for Omicron. Still, a dead person is far more likely to be tested than a sneezing one.

Thus... Omicron is now a normal cold. It will spread and infect the whole British population in a few days. Europe will soon follow. Hopefully, and likely, Omicron infection confers immunity against deadly Delta and will lead to its elimination. I believe the pandemic will end this year. Heavily mutated African variant Omicron will join the 200 cold viruses that plague us, without standing out. Merry Xmas everyone!

And what will come next? one can only hope for a less frightful new year with a chance to recover and move on. We've had an out of proportion reaction to the bird flu, then came the swine flu, and now from the COVID-19 pandemic, it's time to move to on to ... well... other pandemics. The good news is that they've been fairly rare in the past.

A shred of hope

As the new variant eliminates deadly Delta, the deaths should slow down. As seen so far in both in the UK and South Africa, Omicron cases are not associated with a discernible increase in deaths. Thus, it seems that Omicron is no longer the kind of cold that kills people. Long Covid and the need for intensive care are also less common. There is strong evidence to suggest Omicron is just a regular cold, and not the worst cold in 10 years.

Restrictions are again on the rise. However, I argue that they are counter productive and ultimately will be associated with an increase in deaths. I expect the spreading Omicron to be associated with a decrease in hospitalizations and deaths, followed by a period of herd immunity, with nearly no hospitalizations and no deaths.

Lockdowns slow both Delta and Omicron, with Omicron probably less vulnerable. Thus, lockdowns do decrease the number of daily deaths and hospitalizations. Not sure they decrease the overall number, but the problem gets spread over a longer time.

All in all, in my view, lockdowns do not provide a good return on investment. Thus, we 'pay' too much for every life we save. In other words, the same resources allocated elsewhere would probably save more lives. However, this global hysteria induced in the name of a virus has never been about saving lives...

Hungary's gone crazy

Through an artifact of imperfect reporting, Hungary appears second only to Russia and above the US in COVID-19 deaths. These are probably the deaths registered on Monday, which are reported on Tuesday and probably happened during the weekend and on Monday. We note that, in Hungary, Sundays, and, likely, some Saturdays appear to never have any deaths.

Still Hungary punches very high for a country with under 10 million people, many of which are living abroad. We can only hope that Omicron will soon come to Hungary and displace the deadly Delta. The next best thing after vaccination for the Hungarian government to do would be to spread the mild Omicron in the country, much like the UK does at the moment.

Instead of this, the Hungarian government focuses on quarantine and social distancing, which slow down the spread of Omicron and allow Delta to infect and kill more people.

Although a bitter pill to swallow for public relations, the spread of Omicron will likely cut the overall hospitalizations and death, despite, perhaps, coming with a short surge when everyone is infected at the same time and a small fraction end up in hospital due to either somatic or psychosomatic reasons.

Hospitals are not used to turning away COVID-19 patients who aren't very sick. They will certainly have to master this skill very well during the reign of Omicron.

How mild is Omicron?

Despite the very large number of cases, there is only one death in the UK. With 200 000 people infected yesterday, there should have been more, even if Omicron doesn't kill anyone directly.

How many deaths? can we estimate?
People live about 30 000 days (think 100 years at 300 days a year). Thus, for every 30 000 days lived, one should die once. Within 200 000 people having been infected yesterday, there should have been 6 deaths. If only one is found it means that we are either not counting or Omicron is actually preventing people from dying, which would indeed be very strange.

What happens in South Africa?
South Africa now shows 40 000 new Omicron infections a day (it must be all Omicron there by now), and barely any deaths. The real number of Omicron infections should be close to the total population and it should peak very soon. Most people in South Africa must be coughing or sneezing now, as it happens most winters (although it's mid-summer there). The summer should make Omicron milder in Africa than what we expect in Europe. The younger African population should also result in lower mortality and less severe disease than what we expect in Europe and America, where the populations is older and many are kept alive by good healthcare systems.

Still, a cold is a cold and if it continues to be this mild Omicron will fit into "the just a cold scenario". Of course, then December 2021 would not be the first time a new cold virus has swept through the EU, but it will be the best monitored cold in the histoy of mankind. We'll survive it. Well, most of us...

Omicron - all over the UK. Happy Omicron Xmas!

Omicron seems to bring the Corona pandemic to a swift end. As of today, December 13, In London, 44% of new Corona infections are Omicron, with cases doubling every 2 to 3 days. Models estimate the number of new Omicron infections to be 200 000 a day in the UK. If they double every 2 to 3 days, we should have 1000 more in about one month. That is 3 times the population of the UK. Thus, the virus will run out of people, probably this year.

The rest of the world will follow a few short days later. My guess is that Omicron immunity works against Delta, while Delta immunity doesn't work well against Omicron. This would mean the Delta variant will be phased out soon.

Omicron is mild, well in the range of the common colds we are used to. As it outcompetes Delta, the Corona pandemic will become the usual cold pandemic we experience every winter.

Sure, there is the worst case scenario, when Omicron is so different from Delta that Omicron infection doesn't offer immunity against Delta. That would suck, as both Delta and Omicron would continue to propagate independently. While possible, I don't believe this scenario to be likely.

Thus, we should wish our friends and family a happy Omicron this Christmas. Looks like almost no one will escape it. As we are allowed to stay home when sick, we should all have a mild cold. Maybe some cough. Hopefully, no pneumonia.

Note: I have vaccinated and I recommend vaccination!

The Unstoppable Omicron -- a foreseeable end for the Covid-19 pandemic?

Omicron is now confirmed to be less deadly and more contagious than Delta.

Why? The omicron virus appears to have borrowed a DNA sequence that is common in human cells, and other viruses that infect us including most colds viruses and even HIV. This may be the genetic factor that helps it be more infectious and less lethal.

WHO continues to claim Omicron has caused no deaths so far. By the way we have counted deaths in this pandemic, this is obviously impossible. Omicron has spread worldwide and is highly infectious. The number of cases now must be in the millions, perhaps tens to hundreds of millions. We will know that most of the population in a region has been exposed when the pandemic wave peaks and the number of cases stops growing.

For a typical million people, 1000 must die every month. To see that, think that people live about 1000 months (100 years at 10 months a year). Thus, in a typical million, 1 in 1000 die every month. In the month with Omicron, there should be more. We see that through the doubling of excess deaths South Africa.

If Omicron wasn't killing anyone, but we count natural deaths occuring while infected as Omicron deaths, like we did with other Covid fatalities in this pandemic, the lowest possible theoretical mortality for the one week long Omicron iness is 0.025%. That is a bit more than one tenth of Delta.

Any virus, even the most mild cold, should increase mortality a little bit. As the pandemic wave affects the entire population roughly at the same time, even a mild increase in mortality and morbidity will have a visible effect on the health system and media.

The good news, however, is that the new Omicron will likely replace Delta in a few days in most places and a few weeks worldwide. This will bring the Covid-19 mortality in the region of unremarkable colds. It will no longer be at the high end of the mortality spectrum among the over 200 respiratory viruses that infect us.

Omicron

The world is shutting down again due to Omicron.

This new variant is said to be Africa's response to the pandemic.

In general, viruses evolve to become
-- more infectious
-- less deadly
-- immune to the antibodies of previous variants, but, in general, existing variants will be vulnerable to the antibodies against the new ones.

The proof follows:
(1) It is obvious that, all other things equal, a more infectious variant will take over a less transmissible one.
(2) Let us consider two coexisting virus variants, with one being more deadly than the other, while all other things are the same.
The people affected by the less deadly variant will continue to participate in society and spread the virus more effectively. Thus, the less deadly variant will infect more people and take over.
(3) When a virus evolves in an environment where most people have immunity against an existing variant due to widespread natural infection, any genetic mutation that allows the virus to go around the prevailing kind of immunity will enable the new mutant to reinfect the entire population and take over.

In general, the old variants will still be vulnerable to the immune response generated by the new ones. Thus, in general, when a deadly virus infects a population, eventually, a less deadly and more contagious variant evolves, which acts as a natural vaccine against the original deadly virus. Sure, in this natural vaccine production process many of the affected animals or humans will die.

So far, with COVID-19, we've seen it evolve into the Delta Variant in India. Delta is more contagious, and, I believe, less deadly. Thus, the pandemic waves are shorter, with a lot of people dying at the same time. Overall, in places like Romania, where both Delta and the original variant infect the entire population, there are fewer deaths due to Delta. Fewer, but concentrated in a shorter time.

Compared to Delta, Omicron has evolved more. It is thus further from the original variant, and, thus, I expect it to be considerably more contagious, and, at the same time, less deadly. It will transition more and more from clinically looking like a bad flu to being more like a common cold.

At the same time, as vaccine immunity becomes widespread, we should expect new variants to evolve in the vaccinated world that are immune to the dominant vaccine immunity.

In the unlikely event that we contain Omicron, these new variants that evolve independently from Delta are likely to be more deadly than Omicron.

The most likely scenario is a new Omicron wave that will go through the unvaccinated population and try to evolve a way to infect the vaccinated ones.

It will probably succeed in doing so, and the Pharma industry will have to come up with new vaccines. These will be necessary every few months. Some people will choose to be vaccinated, while others will choose to cough away the virus like they do with the flu. Preliminary counts in the UK say that more than half of the detected omicron patients were doubly vaccinated, and WHO claims no deaths due to omicron so far.

Overall, I dare take the controversial position to say that, probably, Omicron is a good development in the COVID-19 story. A less deadly and more contagious variant will act as a natural vaccine, sure, with side effects that appear vastly worse than those of manufactured vaccines.

This is not an argument against vaccination.

A cure for the common cold

Pfizer has a drug that can cure COVID-19. It slashes hospitalizations by 90% and virtually eliminates deaths from the illness. Furthermore, the drug disrupts the virus metabolism, and, therefore, works on all versions of COVID-19 as well as on the old Coronaviruses that causes some 10 - 15% of common colds. It probably works agains the deadly SARS and MERS as well.

The common cold is one of the main illnesses that plague us. It comprises of a few hundred viruses split of several types like Coronaviruses, Adenoviruses, Rhinviruses, Influenza, etc. For reasons that always escaped me, we never had a cure. It was always said that colds are so complex that science can't find a cure. But science wasn't trying hard enough.

With a bit of world shake from Covid-19, we now have a drug that effectively addresses and cures the common cold. It will not work on all colds -- just the 10-15% of them that are caused by coronaviruses, including COVID-19.

This is a major technological breakthrough and probably signals the end of the pandemic.

But ... why did we need a pandemic to fund this research? We could have done it 5 years ago or 10 years go or, maybe, even 20 years ago. There are 200 more cold viruses out there that still don't have a cure. There is a good chance we won't look for it now. Why?

Why do we have money to fund armies and nuclear bombs and space programs and, when it comes with something as common as the common cold that can turn as life threatening as the Spanischer flu, we just don't care?

After this pandemic, how can we justify not having research and vaccines and tests and drugs for all cold viruses?

Why? Because just like research on Gravitational Waves or just like literature and art, most of these drugs won't be sold for huge profit. They won't make private firms rich enough to lead the world, like it just happened to Pfizer. Yet, by developing them, we'd be ready for the next pandemic, when it comes.

Fundamental research should have enough government funding to thrive. By funding it we would get ready for the next pandemic. Research that matters should never be led by private companies that must deliver shareholder profit. But goverments aren't ready to make changes that matter. Leaders meet and cause wars. They don't fix problems.