Truth from Iceland

Iceland has been testing heavily. They tested 10% of their population - this is more than every country in the world, except Faeroe Islands. Tests are freely available to everyone.  

Iceland now has about 1700 people infected and 8 deaths.

But what should the numbers be for the whole country?

Well... if we assume the tested and untested individuals have the same infection rate, we get 17 000 people infected today. If I use my estimate, 0.2% of that would be 34 dead -- we might see Iceland reaching that number in the next week or so. 

So far the numbers are consistent with my 0.2% upper bound on deaths. Sure, a good portion of the untested people are infected as well.