Italy — a lower bound

Lombardy has reported 10911 COVID-19 deaths out of 10 million people. Thus, 0.11% of the population. It’s half-way to my 0.2% upper bound and the spread does seem to stop. Comparisons between deaths from this year with previous years shows up to a factor of two at the peak of the epidemic. This is still within my 0.2% estimate. If my estimate is correct, Lombardy should have reached herd immunity and not experience a second wave of COVID-19.

The data also has anomalies, which have to be studied and understood. In some areas, the total number of deaths during the pandemic was 1%. Overall, I believe this must be an isolated case, perhaps based on a aging population or some sort of medical accident where people who shouldn’t die, died— maybe they sent too many people with mild symptoms to hospital infecting and/or overwhelming medical staff instead of allowing people to recover at home, etc. Maybe. Maybe not. All these are suppositions at this point.

A 1% death rate would be consistent to the data from the Diamond Princess and South Korea. That’s scary. In Italy, it’s still just a few villages. It would also mean China doesn’t have herd immunity. I hold that as unlikely. One should test the hypothesis. A 1% death rate would mean, Wuhan should have either had 100 000 deaths (hard to hide even in China) or expect a 2nd wave of infection —it does not seem to be happening as of yet. If this is true, it also probably means we will all be stuck in quarantine forever -- maybe with a brief break in summer. I still would not support quarantine as a way of life.