Monday, April 20, 2020

Preliminary results from antibody tests: Austrian village immune?

Antibody tests find 50% immunity in Austrian village and the local doctor suggests their last flu wave was COVID-19. While they claim that antibody tests are 100% accurate, there is still some cross-checking needed to see that this is true.
 
IF it is, it means COVID-19 is more widespread, and the mortality is not as high as claimed (likely closer to that of the flu or it would not have been mistaken for flu -- perhaps 0.1-0.2% like Stanford and Mihai suggest). Note that because it is a new virus even a 0.1% to 0.2% death rate can cause what happened in Lombardy and NY -- since everybody is affected at once, and this is disastrous in large cities.

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