How deadly is the coronavirus? 0.2% upper bound: supported by preliminary results

Preliminary results from antibody tests are in. They confirm my 0.2% upper bound for the Coronavirus mortality rate, that I have predicted in early March and first published on March 15.

A new study from Stanford, based on antibody tests, puts the death rate between 0.12% and 0.2%. 

They are consistent with results from Heinsberg, Germany where they found 15% of 254000 were infected and 54 died, which means the death rate was 0.14%.

In Italy, Lombardy gives a death rate of about 0.11% at almost 11000 deaths from 10 million people. This is also consistent with the above, and the new cases in Italy appear to happen mostly in other areas.

 

While more tests need to be performed before a peer-review article is published, these numbers give us hope of not having to live in a new 'normal' as WHO and the rest of the media suggest -- a form of quarantine that goes and comes and lasts for years, i.e., until a vaccine appears. Such a regime would increase poverty, panic and hunger to an unprecedented level world-wide and lead to a form of digital gulag where democracy and personal freedom are in-existent. 

A 0.1-0.2% death rate means that a lot more of the population is infected than the number of cases reported (almost 100 times more). This gives the world a shot at herd immunity and would mean that quarantine will not become a way of life as suggested by the media. It also implies that invasive methods like the tracing of contacts are ineffective and unnecessary at this stage in the pandemic because the virus has already spread. Herd immunity is then already achieved in Lombardy and in NY, and Spain, France and the UK are well on their way towards herd immunity as well.

Could it be that COVID-19 burned through all of China at 0.1-0.2% mortality and was 'missed' as they were looking for a 5% mortality bug? They have not had a second wave of COVID-19. Antibody tests could tell us the answer....