World War III: Aftermath

While the current pandemic event is not unprecedented, the political reaction to it is extraordinary. At no other time in history have we seen so many countries in such a short time switch from civilian to military rule and take drastic action. At no other time, since World War II have we had so many countries under military command. It is true that viruses pose extraordinary threat to mankind. The Spanish Flu pandemic from 1918 killed more people than the First World War that was raging at the time. And this wasn’t the only one. We have had less deadly pandemics since and even more deadly ones prior.  

Even though this virus is not deadly enough to justify this kind of action, it is a reasonable military exercise to see if we can stop it. The answer is clear. We can’t. Even Boris Johnson can’t protect himself from the virus. The Royal Family isn’t safe either. The transmission rate is too fast. A lot of tests come back positive all over the world. The virus has a good hold of humanity and is here to stay.

Now, we’ve mobilized the armies, we’ve seen we can’t do much … what next? Will it end? How? When? 

In the meantime, we lose life in several ways
   1. When closing borders and important sectors like agriculture in the spring and summer in a over a quarter of the world, the impact will go beyond financial loss and loss of quality of life. There will be lives lost due to the measures. But it's beyond my ability to compute this kind of death rate. So, I will continue by discussing the more obvious loss of life.

  2. People who die either because of the virus or because they cannot receive proper treatment since the medical system is overwhelmed. In Italy, the average death of COVID-19 victims is close to 80.  Average life expectancy is 82. Thus, the average victim loses, perhaps 2 years. Perhaps less since the people with pre-existing conditions and lower life expectancy are more likely to die. Also, note that all victims who die with COVID-19 in their system are labeled as COVID-19 victims, whether the virus was the actual cause of death or not. Since hospitals are infected, and cannot be effectively cleaned or closed at this time, people who go to the hospital are likely to get  COVID-19 if they do not already have immunity to it and those with pre-existent conditions are more likely to die.

   3. The quarantine is life lost one day at a time. If we keep 1000 people locked up for a bit over one month, we have lost 100 years. If one in 1000 people die, and that life is cut short by only 2 years, the quarantine is the main cost. Donald Trump seems to understand this. The rest of the world does not.

But can we predict some of the aftermath beyond obvious life loss?

— There is unemployment and there will be more. The recession has already begun.
— Governments are printing more and more money without connecting the money to action. They cannot take action because everything is in lockdown. So, there will be devaluation, which means everyone will pay for the lockdown by losing their savings and it will go beyond that. There is no easy way out. Germany's finance minister committed suicide when trying to cope with the economic fallout of the coronavirus. The situation is serious, and will go beyond financial loss. 

— In this period, it is much easier than normal to escalate to a classic military conflict, using guns. 

— The travel restrictions and other acts appear to be more politically motivated than to do with the virus. The world seems to be turning into a second China. This is worrisome to say the least.

— The United States will probably try to keep the quarantine short and get America back to work. This will minimize both financial damage and overall loss of life. US states refused to impose full lock-down measures and New York city refused to enter full lock-down.

-- Sweden has gone back on its quarantine measures while training people who lost their jobs to become hospital workers.  IF they succeed in standing up to the rest of the world, these countries will fare better in the end.

-- In Europe, I hope the borders won’t last long and we’ll soon be free to travel again. A lot of the freedom that we gained with the EU has disappeared overnight. It is very important to regain this freedom. Travel restrictions between EU countries with similar levels of infection don’t make any sense. Yet, they are in place. 

-- Eastern Europe is doing the quarantine in a way that’s too expensive: too few lives saved for too much trouble. All work contracts have ended. In Romania, everybody is unemployed, locked up in their own homes, and paid by the state at 75% of their pay-check. They have closed every sector including agriculture, while explaining how nothing will come in, and local farms will support people.  Borders are closing completely as of this week. They may end up having no quarantine at the peak of the epidemic, when it would truly help OR they may end up being too expensive to be kept in Europe after the mess is over -- if there will be an European Union when this is over.

Some civil liberties are probably lost forever. Governments will have more easy access to persona data, travel patterns, etc. This is a serious limitation to personal freedom. It an be used in both good ways and bad ways. 

Some bubbles burst. Real estate, stock markets, etc. When a commodity is priced in a way not backed by reality, it might come back to its real value. Or, frequently, to less. 

We will shop more online. Some stores will close forever. We’ll learn online and do bureaucracy online. This digital transition is permanent. 

Some Airlines failed. There will be higher cost for air travel if things return to normal.

Real Estate markets will change worldwide. Prime London Property that comes with very little space and a near certainty to achieve early exposure to COVID-19 may lose some value. Countryside land and homes that offer more space might increase in value. Who wants to be stuck again in a very small flat? This is probably going to happen worldwide. 

Past wars have been followed by baby booms. In World War II, we’ve had more additional lives that started due to the war than lives that ended in the war. Yes, World War II produced more lives than it ended. The population increased faster than before — both during and after he war. 

Given that birth rates throughout most of the world are below replacement level, a baby boom would be a very welcomed thing. Since in most of Europe, population halves every two generations or faster, a baby boom would be most welcomed. There’s no better thing than children to replace the old dead. Let’s hope Italians understand. 

From Russia With Love, the military has come to the rescue in Italy. It’s a beautiful gesture. The Russians are sending doctors and equipment to Italy, when, in a very short time, their own medical system will collapse and they will need this stuff. They are doing it at the expense of their own people, but, haven’t they always done that? Politically, it’s a great move. And, perhaps, by the time the peak of the epidemic arrives in Russia, the Russians doctors would have been infected with COVID-19 in Italy and recovered already. Thus, they’d be immune and able to do away with the need for some of the protection equipment in Russia. 

-- China has developed tools and technology to fight this virus at home. They’ve scaled up production capabilities and they will come to the rescue of the rest of the world. Sure, it will come at a price. Some will be paid now and some later by recognizing China’s place in the world in a different way than before. Let's hope this recognition will not come at the price of turning the rest of the world or parts of it into a second China like the quarantine measures are doing and keeping it so.

— In the United States, the virus made the press stop writing about the impeachment of Donald Trump. His chances to get reelected are much higher than in times of peace. It would be amazing to see military hospitals from China, Russia and Cuba come to the rescue when the American medical system collapses. 

— Russia might increase its influence in the world. Moldova, Ukraine may drift further away from Europe and the annexation of Crimea will no longer be discussed. As Europe loses power, they might annex other countries as well including parts of Eastern Europe.

— The developing world will likely not be very much affected by the virus, but they will be affected by the lock-down measures and these will cost lives. India and Africa are used to disease — many diseases more deadly than COVID-19. An illness that only kills the old and frail will be easily dealt with.  Most people will die at home, without respirators and tests.