The world's reaction to the coronavirus: each country's way out?

The US

America was slow in starting to test. They have acted as if they are trying to hide the epidemic. On March 1, they have only tested one man in one million.  The American strategy is to minimize the economic impact and maximize the credit its president has for the affair. Donald Trump likes to be a dictator. He just gained new powers because of the coronavirus pandemic. He also likes walls and borders and now finally borders are in place with Mexico and, temporarily, with all the other countries.  A war like state will increase his chances to be re-elected. 

In order to minimize the economic impact, the best solution is probably to 0) back the "it's just a cold" statement. Then 1) accept the inevitable and have a relatively short quarantine, 2) deploy antibody tests to show that many, if not most Americans have already been infected, and 3) burry (or burn) the dead, end the quarantine and move on with life. The hope of the political class is that the US will end up more loving of Trump with an economy less harmed than the rest of the world.

The UK

Like America, the British will have to somehow weather the storm. The NHS is relatively fit for wartime times. They have done little to slow the pandemic, so they will have a vast number of patients all at once. Parts of the system will collapse. The most important element will be keeping people away from hospitals -- healthy people who can be treated at home and are simply scared. 

When antibody tests come out, they will show how many people are infected and stop the madness. The key is to keep the time as short as possible between the periods when you tell the people that nobody had it and when you say we all went through it. 

Germany 

Angela Merkel and her government do come across as honest, trustworthy and doing what's best for their nation. This is rare when looking at political leaders today. Their quarantine works -- not only by flattening the peak, but also by keeping sick people at home and thereby having less severe forms of COVID-19 than if they did go to work. 

Most of the German population will be infected in the next few weeks and, after that, the madness will come to an end. My guess is that about 80 000 will die.

Austria

A special note for Austria: they are the only country left that still has 500 times more positive tests as they have deaths. They are still able to test enough, but it won't last long. This virus infects millions very fast. 

Russia

Putin is a strongman. He is a dictator. If he was to try to respect the constitution, he'd have to step down. The Coronavirus is a war. War calls for strong men. Dictators fare better than democrats in times of war. 

This has therefore been the perfect time to cal a referendum on constitutional changes that will allow Vladimir Putin to be president forever, and he did just that. The referendum must go ahead even in the midst of a pandemic. Deaths must be hidden. The COVID-19 does not exist. Maybe some Russians drink too much Vodka and die. 

Eastern Europe

Eastern European governments have shut down schools and public life much sooner in the pandemic than their western counterparts. It's all very reasonable, but I worry about the economic impact because quarantines are expensive and the rest of Europe is already too caught up in its own economic problems to help, and will be so for, perhaps, a long time to come.

Romania has announced the first COVID-19 fatality while the patient is still alive. He has been tested positive for coronavirus and the doctors are certain he will die, given that he has terminal lung cancer and he retuned home to die. 

Serbia has closed borders to Serbians abroad. The Romanian president has asked Romanians outside the country to not return home. There are reports of people being quarantined in tents erected in the border region. While it's been warm in the past few days, it can still snow in Romania now and it is cold at night. Would be a great time to be stuck in a tent for 2 weeks with pneumonia, surrounded by lots and lots of people. A great way to catch the coronavirus too! Visions of two weeks in a prison-like tent are one of the reasons that keep me away from Romania this month. The other being that it's good to stay put during a pandemic if one shows common sense (those who know me also know I am not prone to bouts of common sense, but a pandemic is a worthy exception even for me). 

The danger may be that, for Eastern Europe, the quarantine is too soon to spread the peak and will delay the epidemic as a whole perhaps until summer, when it may naturally slow down only to restart in the fall.

Iran 

I think, here, it's summer weather that is making COVID-19 harder to spread. I would expect 80 000 deaths in Iran. Iran has declared 1500 and probably hid a few times as many. The epidemic seems to have lost its exponential form for a good while. Maybe summer will cut the pain short and the virus will come back in the fall. The Spanish Flu did the same. 

China 

China has finished the epidemic. This could be achieved in two ways: 

1) The Quarantine succeeded. This means a new wave will start as soon as the quarantine is lifted. This second wave will probably be weaker and slower due to summer and because some social distancing measures will be left in place for a long time. 

2) The Quarantine failed. Everyone got infected. People are immune. I suspect this is the Chinese reality, but, for this to be the case, China would have to have hidden one million deaths (50% of the population infected, at 0.2% mortality rate). It seems possible, as China's monthly death rate is about one million a month. Rules have been put in place to silence and expedite cremation of dead people. Most COVID-19 victims are old and with pre-existing conditions. Thus, they have an alternative diagnostic and reason to die. They will, in general, not be tested for COVID-19. Doctors won't dare after Xi declared victory. 

Throughout the COVID-19 epidemic, China has build a vast medical industry to deal with the problem. They have tests, respirators, masks -- vast industrial production capacity has been created to deal effectively with the domestic crisis. 

Now, people are dying allover the world. China can, should and will export this. Sure, for money, but, like most Chinese things, it will be a good service, at a good price, delivered on time and with a smile. 

China can pack people and supplies in a plane, take off from Wuhan, land in Milano, and by the evening convert a hotel in a hospital with 1000 beds to treat dying Italians. They are starting to help, but not on the scale they could help. The Chinese doctors and nurses are now experienced in dealing with the problem. They can pick up where Italian medical professionals fail: there are patients that have to be left to die. Some will live if they receive help.

The Chinese medical staff would also have been exposed the virus, so their chances of falling ill are much smaller. They could, in principle, do away with protective equipment altogether. China also has vast supplies of blood and plasma from people who survived the COVID-19 infection. That, also can be exported and would be a reasonable thing to try especially in older patients who otherwise have a low life expectancy and would not have much to lose if they contact a blood-borne disease. 

China could also deploy police and and general law enforcement personnel to help make the quarantine work China-style elsewhere. I think that's a step too far, but we'll see. Maybe they'll just export the mobile people tracking technology. 

People will be critical of China for making money from the virus, but, like everything else China sells, it's gonna be better and cheaper than what others offer. It will be interesting, if, in a few weeks, China will offer this service to the US. It will also be interesting to see the market price, when all the world is competing for a still relatively limited supply. China has treated 80 000  COVID-19 patients. They probably have a few thousand respirators. Around the world, there are already millions infected, and, in a few days, there will be millions in serious condition, all at the same time. 

There will be a price to pay for life, but it should be paid. Of course, governments will have to decide if it's worth paying or not. 

Sure, other countries can also do that. Nothing stops Germany, the UK or Russia from sending doctors and supplies to Italy or Serbia, but, most countries will be busy with their own local version of the pandemic. 

South Korea and Singapore are too small to build the required capacity. They should  -- and probably will -- do it as well, but they don't have China's industrial machine and ability to mass produce what's needed. In any case, I don't think the lights will go out on the South Korean factory that produced the quarter of a million tests used in the country. 

Italy

Italy seems to be undercounting the dead. The reality seems worse than the worst news. I hold on to my guns that the pandemic will stop short of killing more than 0.2% of the Italian population. Perhaps, they'll be lucky and only half will be infected. Maybe, saved by summer? That would be 60 000 deaths. 3500 currently recorded, maybe another 10 000 not declared/tested, about 50 000 to go... and that's optimistic. My 0.2% has been criticized as optimistic. WHO is saying 2% Wuhan 5% and Italy says 7%.