The world's reaction to the coronavirus

The United Kingdom
As of March 17, the UK has 1700 cases and 70 deaths, with 20 people critically ill. Based on the 0.2% mortality rate I argued for earlier, I conjecture that there were 17 000 infections about 2 weeks ago and, probably 170 000 today. My optimistic expectation is of 30 million cases and 60 000 deaths in the next few weeks. This would mean about 250 000 people in hospitals, many of them in critical care. The NHS has 140 000 beds. Like it is pointed out flattening the peak is crucial in the management of this patient load.

The WHO puts the mortality at 3.4% and China claims 4.9% in Wuhan. Italy currently is 7.3%, assuming no undetected cases. A 5% mortality rate like some believe was the case in Italy and Wuhan would mean up to 2 million deaths, if the entire population 40 of the 66 million Brits are infected.

As of March 15, the UK has taken what they call serious action against the Coronavirus.  Serious Action, British style on March 15, means the following: 

• Schools, nurseries have not closed yet. 

• Public transport is still running and the tube is packed. 

• They banned sporting events AFTER the Bath Half.

• Tests in England are still hard to obtain and reserved only for the most vulnerable patients. This supports my 0.2% hypothesis. It could be that Boris Johnson thinks the mortality is lower than 0.2 %. The schools appear to stay open. 
• The world suggests Mr. Johnson is playing with fire. 

The United States
As of March 16, the US has 71 dead people and 3680 confirmed cases. Based on my 0.2% mortality rate, I expect 35000 cases some 2 weeks ago and 350 000 cases today. If the pandemic runs uncontrolled and half of the 400 million Americans get infected, we will probably see 400 000 deaths and a few million people in hospitals. 

The US administration has been unreasonably slow at testing people. As of March 1, only 1 in 1 million Americans has had access to a Coronavirus test. Tests continue in a very sluggish way, and the Coronavirus is heavily politicized.  A 5% mortality rate, with half the population infected, would mean 10 million American deaths and, maybe, 50 million in hospitals. Mr Trump is certainly betting his future in the White House on China being wrong to quarantine anyone and the death rate being below my optimistic and heavily criticized 0.2%. 

Even at my optimistic 0.2%, the American policies are an almighty mess. Here's just one example.  Mr. Trump did appear to try his business skills at buying exclusive rights to a German Coronavirus vaccine. It is suggested that he may want to sell it to the rest of the world for profit. 

Italy
With 25 000 tested positive and over 2100 already dead today, Italy should have had one million infected people two weeks ago, and, unless the quarantine worked, perhaps as many as 10 million today. The numbers give a hint of flattening out at over 300 deaths per day. 

On the other hand, if the mortality is about 5%, only a small fraction of the Italian population is sick today and the quarantine works, the disease may soon stop, but, only to start again when the quarantine ends. Thus, Italians will stay in quarantine for a very long time. And so will we all. Quarantine will be a new way of life until effective vaccines are made. It would mean less pollution and a collapsed economy.

There should be more deaths to come. I expect 60 000 in total, at my optimistic 0.2% mortality rate. If it's 5% -- and the rough numbers look like 7% now -- we are talking about a heartbreaking 2 million people, if Merkel's two thirds of the population get sick. However, the Italian strain of the virus could be more deadly and could burn itself out, and then perhaps start over as the quarantine stops. Eventually, we will be left with the less deadly strains that will affect the majority of the population.

The medical system is collapsing under the weight of today's 1600 patients in critical conditions. There will be more this evening. I remain optimistic. If 10 million people are already sick, there inferno will soon be over. The strong will live, the weak will die and the population will become immune to Covid-19. They will have to encourage people to stay home if sick, and avoid hospitals whenever possible.  If only the 30 000 people we've tested positive are sick today, this is the beginning of a tragedy that knows no limits. With a mortality of 5% that could only get worse as health care system continues its collapse, we are back to the middle ages.

I do remain optimistic and believe the Italians have missed 10 million cases of COVID-19. In this case, there will be more deaths, but only tens of thousands. To put things in perspective, about 100 thousand Italians die every month due to natural reasons. So, 60 thousand can be a low number IF spread over the whole country. The 2200+ death we've seen up to day were in a small part of Italy, which is why the health system is so overwhelmed. 

Spain seems to be a few days behind Italy. They have about 12 000 reported cases and over 500 deaths. They are in full lock-down and yet the number of deaths went up by about 170 yesterday. Italy has over 300 deaths per day. Their population is a bit smaller than Italy at about 47 million, but both the way they test for the virus and death toll seem similar. Their ICU units have 3 beds for every 100 000 inhabitants, but they are also using private practices. Again, under the same optimistic assumptions, if they missed a few million cases, the pandemics might be over in a few weeks once the populations reaches herd immunity.

Germany 
Germany has a population of 80 million people. They have a similar number of reported cases with Spain (about 9000), but only 23 deaths. We know that they tested more people than either Spain or Italy. 

Angela Merkel seems honest and relaxed about the fact that 60-70% of Germans will probably get the Coronavirus.  Her government is tackling the crisis methodically, with plenty of tests available to people with or without symptoms. Thus, Germany now has about 9000 cases, with over 1000 new positives today. There are only 23 deaths. According to my 0.2% theory, there should have been 9000 cases some two weeks ago and 90 000 today.

We must consider that many of these patients show some symptoms. Maybe that's why they got tested. That means they went pass the incubation period, which can be 2 weeks. There are also delays related to collecting samples, waiting for the results and updating the numbers online. Thus, it is reasonable to assume these 9000 people were infected sometime between 1 and 2 weeks ago. That means, unless mortality is less than 0.2%, Germany should be detecting a very good portion of the infected population before they heal. Sure, they have plenty of time to spread the disease before they get tested. 

If you assume people live to 80, and ignore variations in the age distribution, you should expect one million Germans to die every year. That is about 3000 deaths per day. I like order of magnitude mental calculations, but if you want an exact number, you can look it up and it is 2500. Every day, on average, 2500 Germans die. The coronavirus could double this number for sometime. Natural variations in mortality are normal. For example, there was a 25% change in mortality in Germany between 1975 and 2005. Globally, due to an ageing population, Germany has one of the highest levels of natural mortality in the world. 

In Germany, schools have been shut down, albeit, perhaps, a little too late in the epidemic. Shops are full (minor shortages on particular toilet paper flavors, most most things are there). Trains run, borders are closed, people seem alive. 

With only 2 out of 9000 confirmed cases critically ill today and, with potentially 90 000 infected and untested, Germany seems to be doing great so far. That is, if my 0.2% hypothesis holds. We should expect 80 000 deaths and a quarter of a million in hospital. While hard, the German medical system may survive in reasonable shape. They seem to have found a way to keep sick people home -- away from respirators and unnecessary doctor's visits.  

If 5% of Germans die, with half of the population infected, Germany would be in big trouble. 2 000 000 deaths and 10 000 000 in hospital, many at the same time would lead to carnage even here. I believe Merkel is confident mortality will stay below my 0.2% theoretical expectation that so many people have criticized as too optimistic. 

On the street, in Germany, I have come across the following, in the past few days
-- a train ticket inspector checking tickets and touching passengers in-between coughs and sneezes. He obviously had a bad cold, perhaps not the COVID, but I'm sure he wasn't tested. The lady serving drinks in the ICE also seemed sick. 
 -- a police lady, at work, in  the train station, also visibly sick with a cold. 
-- many people coughing and sneezing in the train
-- many people sick in the supermarket, including two cashiers. 
-- a waiter in a restaurant breathing with difficulty, as if he had a cold. 

Sure, one would have seen the same people with the same colds this time last year. They may be fewer now, but it isn't immediately obvious. 

 In these Coronavirus times, since we don't know what the numbers really are, if in a position to infect thousands like being a train ticket controller, you should stay home and drink tea. And, Policeman and Policewomen, you should consider that when you infect the people you are supposed to serve and protect, you are likely to cause more damage than whatever criminals you are protecting us from. You should police yourselves for stealing people's health. 

It is sure a matter of culture. Even now, many in Germany find it unacceptable to stay home sick when they only have a cold. The trouble is that, for most people, it is impossible to tell which cold. This coronavirus looks a lot like other coronaviruses if you don't have access to PCR (polymerase chain reaction DNA testing).

Sweden and Denmark and much like Germany. Lots of tests, many cases, few deaths, suggesting that many of the infected people are tested. Many is probably still a small fraction if the total, but more than elsewhere. 

Bulgaria
I can only applaud Bulgaria for having the brilliant idea to shut down schools due to a flu epidemic before Coronavirus entered the country.  This way, Bulgarians will have less flu and the first few Covid-19 cases had been deprived of their prime spreading mechanism. There was then a smooth transition to closing schools due to Covid-19. 

Bulgaria today has 62 cases and 2 deaths. So, if 0.2% die, maybe 1000 cases two weeks ago and 10 000 today, with huge error bars. Schools have been down for a good while. 

GO BULGARIA!! 

Iran
At over 1000 reported deaths, Iran would need half a million to be infected. Under the same optimistic assumptions of a 0.2% death rate, with a population of 80 million, and half reasonably likely to be infected, Iran should expect another 80 000 Covid-19 deaths. They have released prisoners with sentences under 5 years to help contain the spread.