Second and Third Coronavirus Deaths in Romania

A second patient has died in Romania. It is a 74 years old man with kidney failure and who required dialysis. He was treated in Bucharest. Such patients are very fragile and with a short life expectancy. They often die from the common cold as well. 

In the US, the average life expectancy of a 74 years old on dialysis is 3.6 year, compared to 12.2 years for the average 74 years old who doesn't require dialysis. 

The third patient has just died this evening, a man from Piatra Neamt who died in the county hospital in Iasi. He was 70 and had pre-existent conditions: arterial hypertension and diabetes. The authorities investigated and found that he did not travel or meet any infected persons before contacting the virus. 

OK, so, some people who likely found their bodies a prison have died. Why worry? Because it means that the virus is present around us. Today some people with weak immune systems have died and more will follow. While the quarantine was done on time, Romania is unprepared for this epidemic. We don't have the ventilators, the beds or the doctors to treat a large number of patients and we are unlikely to receive international help with other richer countries going through this at roughly the same time. We won't even be able to burn the dead -- the only place to burn the dead is in Bucharest -- it's where they burned the victims of the revolution. I was hoping the weather might be hot enough to perhaps slow down the transmission, but so far snow is predicted this week.

Romania has 20 million people, and if my optimistic 0.2% death rate guess holds, it means more than 20, 000 deaths when half of the population was infected. Some go unreported when patients die at home untested and many of the elderly will likely die at home. Yearly, Romania has had about 1500 deaths for every 100,000 people, which means about 800 people die every day and the virus could easily double this number.