As the coronavirus in China grabs headlines, one worries if it detracts attention from more important aspects. Should we worry about it? My understanding is that the answer today is no, not at this point or at least not as much as we need to worry about the flu season. The coronavirus is affecting the global economy bringing the US markets back to 2008 levels, and has crashed China's economy. China's car sales dropped by 92% in the first half of February and other sectors followed, e.g., home sales froze, new apartment sales plummeted by 97%. It's been good for the climate so far because of the various shut downs in China, and like any variation it's been good for business for the few people/companies who buy and sell things and can adjust to the circumstances.
Another aspect is that China produces for the world for which it is sacrificing its air and water and now some of its people. Factories mean lots of people working close together. No country is ready to deal with an epidemic, and China is no exception. The rest of the world should learn from this and help or at least try to help, and we don't see this happening.
Another aspect is that China produces for the world for which it is sacrificing its air and water and now some of its people. Factories mean lots of people working close together. No country is ready to deal with an epidemic, and China is no exception. The rest of the world should learn from this and help or at least try to help, and we don't see this happening.
How does the coronavirus compare with the flu?
In the US, more than 10 000 people died in the 2019-2020 flu season so far, and around 200 000 were hospitalised. This means 5-6% of people hospitalised died. However, the death rate from the flu is reported to be around 0.1%. From the corona virus, well over a 1000 people died so far out of 42000 cases (note that my numbers are not updated automatically; for the latest look at worldometer that reports the number of cases or at the John Hopkins site; the numbers should coincide). This means about 2-3% of the people who were confirmed to have the disease died. Of course, it is expected that not everyone who contacted the virus knows they have it because the symptoms are similar to that of the flu. The number of cases in China are dropping, which means the virus has been contained. They do say it is spreading faster and so it's unclear the spreading will stop as of yet.
Viruses have no treatment beyond treating the symptoms, which is why they are scary. Viruses also mutate fairly easily. For the flu, they are typically about three to four vaccines that circulate each season and more viruses. So, vaccines are not always efficient and they change from season to season.
The scariest flu pandemic that killed three times as many people as WWI....was way, way worse
The flu pandemic in the 1918 had more than 50 million deaths worldwide, and about 675000 deaths in the US alone. Note that world population was less than 2 billion then. This means around 3% of the population died. To compare, today the US population is about 330 million people, and 0.003% of them died of the flu this season. China's population is 1.4 billion and so the number of people who died from the corona virus or the flu or both is likewise negligible. Since the corona virus is mostly contained to China, it is not a pandemic, but an epidemic.
What is the coronavirus?
The coronaviruses get their name from the shape they have under the electron microscope, which magnifies much more than a regular microscope (up to 5000 times more) because it uses a beam of really fast electrons and is not limited by diffraction. It can thus see the halo or corona around each virus particle. The spikes on the viral envelope specify how viruses bind to certain receptors on the host cells and determine viral infectivity. Corona viruses are a family of viruses that cause illnesses ranging form the common cold to more severe respiratory illnesses observed in the middle east to the new strain observed in China, which has not been identified in humans before. Because of their structure coronaviruses are zoonotic, which means they are transmitted between animals and people. This means there are some strains that circulate among animals that have not been observed in people. This new strain from China is called the 2019-nCov and has not been previously observed in people before. See more, e.g., on the World Health Organization site. While the virus is zoonotic, I am thankful there were no chicken or pigs to kill this time.
What is the coronavirus?
The coronaviruses get their name from the shape they have under the electron microscope, which magnifies much more than a regular microscope (up to 5000 times more) because it uses a beam of really fast electrons and is not limited by diffraction. It can thus see the halo or corona around each virus particle. The spikes on the viral envelope specify how viruses bind to certain receptors on the host cells and determine viral infectivity. Corona viruses are a family of viruses that cause illnesses ranging form the common cold to more severe respiratory illnesses observed in the middle east to the new strain observed in China, which has not been identified in humans before. Because of their structure coronaviruses are zoonotic, which means they are transmitted between animals and people. This means there are some strains that circulate among animals that have not been observed in people. This new strain from China is called the 2019-nCov and has not been previously observed in people before. See more, e.g., on the World Health Organization site. While the virus is zoonotic, I am thankful there were no chicken or pigs to kill this time.
Negative impact on China's economy and potentially on the world's economy
China has been shutting down factories, schools and plants to stop the spread of the virus. The streets are empty in many towns. This is slowing down its economy and will affect the world economy as well. If it continues prices will go up, and consumerism might have to take a break or pay more for the various items. It is a, hopefully, brief test on how frail the economy is, and how dependent the rest of the world is on China.
Where there is loss, there is gain...
However, the price drop, if temporary, will be advantageous for others who might, e.g., buy rough products now and resell them later as things go back to normal. While there is some gain and plenty of loss when any variation occurs, globally it is unclear to me which economy has to gain most from China's loss.
However, the price drop, if temporary, will be advantageous for others who might, e.g., buy rough products now and resell them later as things go back to normal. While there is some gain and plenty of loss when any variation occurs, globally it is unclear to me which economy has to gain most from China's loss.
Positive impact on the climate so far
The shut-down due to the corona virus will reduce CO2 emissions. It will be interesting to see how measurable the effect is. The estimates are that China's CO2 emissions should drop by 1% or more, which is more than Romania's yearly emission. The price of products like palm oil (and iron ore and other rough materials) has been dropping because China is its second largest buyer. The increase in the use of palm oil has caused extensive deforestation, which is extremely detrimental to the environment.
Lasting positive effects?
I don't see any so far beyond the drop in CO2 emissions, which is significant, but perhaps I am wrong. It does dominate the world news. So, we see less of Trump and other candidates and Brexit while they prepare to look good.
The April Heat
The US president informs us that the coronavirus infection will go away with the April heat. While we are used to laughing at his comments, in this case the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention does agree with the president saying the infection might be a flu-like seasonal outbreak that could temper off as the weather improves and perhaps appear again in the cold months. The flu likes cold, dry weather, and the coronavirus could be similar.
The Life-price
The avian flu resulted in the killing of millions of chickens -- most without testing and the swine flu resulted in the killing of pigs -- again, most were healthy and most were untested. They both caused the closing of companies in areas where one or two infected animals might have been found and in the taking of millions of innocent lives in a pointless fashion -- just to be burned and not even used as a resource. The coronavirus is resulting in the burning of people. Are they all tested? Were they all properly cared for?
One can see the high SO2 around Chongquing and Wuhan, two areas most seriously affected by the virus. SO2 can come from the burning of bodies or from industry. While most of the sulfur has been reported to come from steel mills in Wuhan and the large body count theory seems to be a hoax, the bodies of the dead from the coronavirus are being burned. Note that cremation has been compulsory in China partly because they simply do not have the extra space for graveyards like we do in Europe.
One still wonders what are the conditions in the makeshift hospitals? has it suddenly become easier to get rid of people in China? if they have money or if they disturb the order somehow or if they are undesirable for whatever reason? does the coronavirus make it easier to take money and power and life away from some and give the money and power to others? Colds and flu viruses are notoriously difficult to contain. Are we asking the impossible while facilitating the mistreatment and potentially the killing and burning innocent people? and destroying China's economy in the process?
Note that I am not interested in promoting any kind of conspiracy theories and I am not an expert in viruses or anything related. This post is just me sharing what I have read and what I understand about the coronavirus so far.
I end my post by quoting explanations from a colleague in China. She basically tells us that China closed the infected areas, which was a big sacrifice, and that the virus appears contained at this point. But since her comments are very insightful and she has access to first hand information, while I do not, I will quote her mot-a-mot below.
"The threshold for confirmation of the nCoV infection were set very high, one has to both showing symptoms (cough/fever/headache/etc.), showing signs in CT, then he/she was entitled for the RNA kit test. In Wuhan, since the kit were made in a rush and the false alarm/false dismissal rate was very high, one has to show two times positive to be identified as infected. So a lot of tragedy we saw online was about people actually showing symptoms and very severe physical conditions, but since the limited access to the RNA kit (the production speed is less than the demand), a lot of patients died without ever being identified. No identification leads to no treatment (the overburdened medical service just can't handle every patients) and patients in Wuhan, especially who had severe symptoms, were wishing to be identified as positive. So on the contrary, there are more people got sick, died, cremated than the official reported number. The good news is the threshold for identification has been changed yesterday [February 12], which led to a huge increase in the number of confirmed cases yesterday. For the makeshift hospitals, by reading between the lines, the main function is not to treat the patients, but to isolate them from healthy people. As we know it people get cured through their own immune system. Due to the low fatal rate, many people can just recover by themselves, and if the condition get worse, they would be transferred to get more formal treatment. By setting up makeshift hospitals, patients get isolated and spread could be cut off.
Wuhan, Hubei and China made sacrifice on different levels to contain the virus. Looking back towards the development, the CDC performed a wonderful job in identifying the virus and report it to politicians very timely before 3rd Jan. However, the bureaucracy delayed the treatment significantly and Chinese citizens are making acute critics towards the government on that. After the shutdown of the city, however, I think it is the best any city/province/country can ever done towards treating the virus. On a personal level I know patients in Wuhan had a ten times higher fatal rate than if they were in other places, and I feel very sorry for them. But with that sacrifice, I think the development of the nCoV is showing a sign of being contained. It could have been much, much worse, if no such measures were taken."
Lasting positive effects?
I don't see any so far beyond the drop in CO2 emissions, which is significant, but perhaps I am wrong. It does dominate the world news. So, we see less of Trump and other candidates and Brexit while they prepare to look good.
The April Heat
The US president informs us that the coronavirus infection will go away with the April heat. While we are used to laughing at his comments, in this case the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention does agree with the president saying the infection might be a flu-like seasonal outbreak that could temper off as the weather improves and perhaps appear again in the cold months. The flu likes cold, dry weather, and the coronavirus could be similar.
The Life-price
The avian flu resulted in the killing of millions of chickens -- most without testing and the swine flu resulted in the killing of pigs -- again, most were healthy and most were untested. They both caused the closing of companies in areas where one or two infected animals might have been found and in the taking of millions of innocent lives in a pointless fashion -- just to be burned and not even used as a resource. The coronavirus is resulting in the burning of people. Are they all tested? Were they all properly cared for?
One can see the high SO2 around Chongquing and Wuhan, two areas most seriously affected by the virus. SO2 can come from the burning of bodies or from industry. While most of the sulfur has been reported to come from steel mills in Wuhan and the large body count theory seems to be a hoax, the bodies of the dead from the coronavirus are being burned. Note that cremation has been compulsory in China partly because they simply do not have the extra space for graveyards like we do in Europe.
One still wonders what are the conditions in the makeshift hospitals? has it suddenly become easier to get rid of people in China? if they have money or if they disturb the order somehow or if they are undesirable for whatever reason? does the coronavirus make it easier to take money and power and life away from some and give the money and power to others? Colds and flu viruses are notoriously difficult to contain. Are we asking the impossible while facilitating the mistreatment and potentially the killing and burning innocent people? and destroying China's economy in the process?
Note that I am not interested in promoting any kind of conspiracy theories and I am not an expert in viruses or anything related. This post is just me sharing what I have read and what I understand about the coronavirus so far.
I end my post by quoting explanations from a colleague in China. She basically tells us that China closed the infected areas, which was a big sacrifice, and that the virus appears contained at this point. But since her comments are very insightful and she has access to first hand information, while I do not, I will quote her mot-a-mot below.
"The threshold for confirmation of the nCoV infection were set very high, one has to both showing symptoms (cough/fever/headache/etc.), showing signs in CT, then he/she was entitled for the RNA kit test. In Wuhan, since the kit were made in a rush and the false alarm/false dismissal rate was very high, one has to show two times positive to be identified as infected. So a lot of tragedy we saw online was about people actually showing symptoms and very severe physical conditions, but since the limited access to the RNA kit (the production speed is less than the demand), a lot of patients died without ever being identified. No identification leads to no treatment (the overburdened medical service just can't handle every patients) and patients in Wuhan, especially who had severe symptoms, were wishing to be identified as positive. So on the contrary, there are more people got sick, died, cremated than the official reported number. The good news is the threshold for identification has been changed yesterday [February 12], which led to a huge increase in the number of confirmed cases yesterday. For the makeshift hospitals, by reading between the lines, the main function is not to treat the patients, but to isolate them from healthy people. As we know it people get cured through their own immune system. Due to the low fatal rate, many people can just recover by themselves, and if the condition get worse, they would be transferred to get more formal treatment. By setting up makeshift hospitals, patients get isolated and spread could be cut off.
Wuhan, Hubei and China made sacrifice on different levels to contain the virus. Looking back towards the development, the CDC performed a wonderful job in identifying the virus and report it to politicians very timely before 3rd Jan. However, the bureaucracy delayed the treatment significantly and Chinese citizens are making acute critics towards the government on that. After the shutdown of the city, however, I think it is the best any city/province/country can ever done towards treating the virus. On a personal level I know patients in Wuhan had a ten times higher fatal rate than if they were in other places, and I feel very sorry for them. But with that sacrifice, I think the development of the nCoV is showing a sign of being contained. It could have been much, much worse, if no such measures were taken."
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