Covid-19 and politics

Our current world has been very much shaped by cold viruses even without a Covid-19 epidemic/pandemic. We lose more productivity to colds than to any other illness. Some conditions, like obesity, appear to be linked to cold viruses (adenovirus 36). 

Respiratory infections can be deadly. We’ve seen it in 1918 — the Spanish flu killed more than all the guns and battles in World War I -- or about 3% of the population. Should another such virus be produced (viruses are relatively easy to edit — insert new genes, add interesting mutations) — the World could be a very deadly place. 

Covid-19 has affected the world so far through the measures we take to protect ourselves against it and not through the number of deaths or people infected. The world is trying to achieve what never seemed remotely possible: to stop a cold from spreading. Most infect a significant part of humanity every year. The corona virus is also very likely to spread around the world.

Note that what I write reflects my own thoughts, which are not representative of any institution I have been part of or graduated from or of other people.

Below is the political situation, as I see it:

— The US needs a war. A US President who starts wars always seems to get reelected. It has thus become a habit for the US to use war as a regular tool when they need to reelect a president. It has already happened a few times. Americans are more likely to reelect a president that has already been in office if the world is scary.

— One of the main electoral promises of the Trump administration was to bring China down and make America great again. China is down. House sales are down. Building has stopped. Prices have dropped. All manufacturing is severely affected. New car sales dropped by a factor of 20.

It would have taken a lot of bombs and an almighty war to have a similar effect on China.

— Trump has many enemies. It would be difficult for him and his team to leave power without a high risk of jail.

— Trump stands to benefit massively from the Covid-19 media storm. Without it, we would have heard a lot more about impeachment and the funny vote where nearly all people in Congress voted according to the direction of their party. This is typical of kangaroo courts in Belarus or Rwanda and not a democracy where members of Congress are supposed to be independent thinkers, fairly immune from prosecution and putting America’s interest at heart. It is impossible for such similar independent thinkers to independently reach conclusions that are exactly what their party dictates.

— Trump has clear dictatorial and dynastic ambitions. A war situation will help him be reelected and increase his chances to appoint a successor and establish a dynasty. His administration will also be able to rule by decree or twitter, which they also like.

— In China, Xi wants to increase his power as dictator and not step down like a peace time president. War is good for dictators. He wants the power, even at the expense of the Chinese people and ultimately of the rest of the world.

Covid-19 allowed military rule and dictatorial powers to be rolled allover China overnight. Their response to the epidemic has been brutal. People with cold symptoms are often thrown in quarantine institutions that might resemble concentration camps or jails. In most videos I’ve seen from Chinese hospitals and quarantine centres, people appear to wear ski trousers, many sweaters and very thick winter jackets. This suggest an indoor temperature between -10 and 10 C. Not exactly the best conditions to cure any sickness. Measures to prevent viral transmission between patients in a quarantine centre appear to be almost non-existent. The beds are close together in large common dormitories. There are many viruses circulating in such centres. Thus, a patient is likely to come in with one virus and, if they come out, be infected with several. It thus seems certain that people who stay home and drink tea have a much higher survival rate than those who go to the field hospitals.

I would presume that people with interesting political views are more likely to be infected with Covid-19, and more likely to die once quarantined. There have been a few notable cases, including the doctor who first discovered the virus, despite the very low mortality rate in their population group. The cremation of dead people appears to be expedited. No family members are allowed to inspect the body before cremation. Thus, no one can actually tell if bullet holes are present. Controversial transfusions are also used to treat Covid19. It would be interesting to see if the blood group match is statistically correlated with political considerations.

— In Russia, Putin also wants to become more of a dictator than he is. He wants to change the constitution, so he can be forever in power. War is good for dictators.

— European Union is the last bastion of democracy. Reinstating borders across EU could mean the end of free movement, the end of the EU as a coherent player on the world scene, and much decrease Europe’s influence in the world.

So far Italy has the most cases of the virus. Its economy and tourism are taking a down-turn. Up to today 17 have died with most being elderly and sick with pre-existent conditions. The youngest of the reported victims was 62, was waiting for a kidney transplant and having dialysis. Most victims likely had a life expectancy measured in months.

This morning, I woke up to the news that a train was turned around at the Austrian border. Was coming from Italy and the Austrians learned just two people with a cold were on board. The number is very low for what’s expected this time of the year. Yet, the train was turned back. I couldn’t help my mind not notice Austria’s most notable citizen was Hitler.

— In Japan, the Diamond Princess was an example of what is likely to happen to the world in the next few weeks. Again, the 4 people who died were old and far from healthy. The funny thing is that, after putting the ship in quarantine, the people were sent home. They were infectious and carrying a virus for which there is no cure. It looks scary and containing the virus in places at war, like Ukraine or Iran seems silly to attempt. At sea, it is cheaper, better, safer. The normal time to end that quarantine would be when everyone is dead or cured and no new cases happen for a month.  

Will it all end? 
There is a chance that we will see society reengineered to decrease the general cold transmission factor below 1 in winter, as it currently is during summer. This transmission factor is the number of people each sick person is, on average, expected to infect. When the transmission factor is over 1, the epidemic grows exponentially. When under 1, it dies away.

There are some places, like California where this is already the case. In other places, like London, it appears to be very difficult.

It would be truly remarkable if the transmission factor has indeed been lowered below 1 in China.

If we decide to reengineer society and prevent it from spreading, serious changes could lie ahead. So far, we don’t seem to be doing much. The flu, which looks the same and spreads in the same way doesn’t seem to slow down at all this year. So far it looks like this virus is here to stay, just like the many more viruses that cause respiratory infections that exist already.

Can we count the number of infected patients right? The short answer is no. So, take any numbers you see with a grain of salt. There is currently no reasonable way for all members of the public to get tested for Covid-19. It is unlikely for PCR testing kits to be available in sufficient numbers for testing to become a viable option before you become infected. 

What to do if sick with a cold? Most of the time, no treatment is necessary or available. The health care system is not likely to cope with the large number of cases. Thus, the most reasonable course of action, if you or your family members become sick with a cold is to stay home and drink tea. Keep warm, stay happy, enjoy some fruits, and avoid spreading it when you can. Unless your situation is severe and death imminent, visiting a GP or hospital is likely to cause more harm than good, both to you and other patients. Colds should be treated with a bit more respect and care as the current political situation calls for some extra care — the best way you can treat a cold at home.

Basic health precautions

— Children, employers and employees should stay home when they have a cold. Ideally, they should stay home from the first symptoms until a day or two after the symptoms disappear. Again, overall gain may be higher, assuming a reasonable intellectual stimulation at home. The main purpose of school and work is gain and not just showing up -- however, this view, while true, is difficult to enforce.

— If your family situation does not include grandparents or other people who can stay at home with the children, it is likely that, in this period, employers will tolerate absences that are the result of having a child who can be potentially infectious or does not wish to attend school.

— Avoid carnivals, drunken parties and other situations where cold transmission is likely to occur. Covid-19 is transmitted like any other cold.

— Dress warm in cold weather.  

— Wash hands.

— Masks don’t appear to work too well, but you may wish to have one for political reasons

— Vitamin D is generally a good thing, although sun is better.

Money worries. We are likely to see significant and permanent changes in stock market, housing market and other parameters of our society. Think carefully if making an investment or taking a loan. Be careful with your investments. There is a serious possibility of significant changes in both stock market and residential property values all over the world.