Germany: Greatest daily death toll in Europe?

Yesterday, Germany was 2nd only to America in the world ranking of daily deaths. If we take into account the size of their respective populations, yesterday Germany lost to Corona a slightly larger fraction of its people than America. The numbers appear to grow and the growth seems solid as the Christmas holidays are coming up.

The numbers will probably go down today as they tend to report fewer deaths during the weekend. Either fewer people die when they don't have to work or they test less.

There were only a few days when Italy lost more people. Both Italy and Germany have similar population sizes.

Overall, Germany has reported to its population, 3 times fewer deaths than America and 6 times fewer than New York.

New York appears to have achieved herd immunity by having nearly the entire population infected. In Germany, herd immunity is still far away, so the deaths will continue to climb -- but not for very long. The pandemic seems self limiting, like it happened in Italy, France and NY. Thus the numbers should start going down -- this time due to herd immunity and for good -- in January.

time at your feet vs. your head : one trillionth of a second slower in one hour

In the speach for this year's Nobel Prize, Professor Ulf Danielsson mentions that time goes by a trillionth of a second slower at his feet than at his head. This is an interesting, yet simple calculation that many people get slightly wrong. Obviously, it does not make sense to say that time is slower by an arbitrary trillionth of a second. It must slow by a trillionth of a second in a given time.

My back of the envelope calculation, making a few simplifying assumptions, like the distance between the feet and the head being 1 meter, the radius of the Earth being 6000 km and Schwarzschild radius 1 cm is that time would slow by about one trillionth of a second in one hour. This is probably what Professor Danielson intended to say, but, maybe forgot during the lecture.

Thus, the statement should have been

Time goes by a trillionth of a second an hour slower at my feet than at my head.

I am happy that this year's Nobel Prize is about black holes. I did my PhD on LIGO at Caltech with Kip Thorne and Barry Barish who received the Nobel Prize in 2017 for gravitational wave detection. Andrea Ghez has on a few occasions visited our group and I had the pleasure to meet her. Thus, I can say I have been partial to the densest objects in the universe for decades.

Later, I have used this very calculation Pofessor Danielson mentioned to show propose an avenue to use atomic clocks pick up on minute variations of the speed of time at the surface of the Earth that are linked to underground density perturbations.

Update: After my email, Prof. Danielsson corrected the lecture in both English and Swedish.

A review: COVID mortality and world politics

This year, since COVID-19 started, I have made a number of predictions about the virus and the world. We review how they fared.

— I have predicted the mortality rate to be in the 0.2% of the infected people.

The number holds true. One naturally expects most of the population to be infected. There was no country or state where this number was surpassed, although New Jersey and New York come close at 0.199% and 0.181%, repectively.

Sure, the number will be surpassed in some regions, while it will not be reached in others. It can only be a rough estimate, but, looking back a very reasonable one.

— I have predicted the typical mortality rate to be in the region of 0.1% of the entire population, as, perhaps, by the end of this, only half of the people would be infected.

As of today, 12 states and 6 countries have gone above 0.1% mortality. Only 10 states remain below 0.05% and 30 countries lie between 0.05% and 1%.

Thus, the 0.1% as a realistic and optimistic death toll for COVID-19 seems to be true.

Belgium seems to have come to the end of the epidemic, having lost 0.15% of its population to the lines, whereas Sweden may have gotten away with only 0.0724%.

Sweden is certainly a good example to follow.

— I have predicted 80 000 deaths in Germany. So far, I am lucky to have been wrong. The pandemic hasn’t come to an end here though. Germany has lost 20 000 people and there are certainly many more to go. There is a good chance, and hope, that the upcoming vaccine will cut German losses a lot below my prediction.

Sure, Belgium next door, has lost 0.15% of the population — half-way between my optimistic/realistic 0.1% and the 0.2% expected if the whole population got infected.

My models are fairly basic and can’t distinguish between 2 European nations like Germany and Belgium — similar culture, similar advanced medical systems, same aged population…

— I have predicted that the entire Chinese population was infected and there will be no second wave in China this winter.

So far, there was no second wave in China, although China claims this is due to their highly effective quarantine.

I believe a highly effective quarantine would have resulted in a situation like in Germany, where the virus keeps spreading and becomes rampant every time the measures are relaxed or the weather cools.

This is not what we see. The Chinese picture is only consistent to a population that was thoroughly infected in the first wave and a government that turns a blind eye to the few cases happening now.

Sure, the Chinese government will probably credit the eradication of COVID-19 to their highly effective vaccine and their phenomenal disregard for human rights in the implementation of their superior quarantine.

If they ever do double blind study where half of the people get vaccinated and half get injected with distilled water, my guess is that there will be no difference in COVID-19 deaths between the 2 groups.

— I have predicted a second wave in the fall and have predicted it to be stronger in countries that were successful at implementing the quarantine measures in summer.

I have predicted that successful implementation of infection control will only lead to an unstable situation where the measures will continue to be needed and infections will pick up as the weather cools.

We’ve seen this in Eastern Europe, with North Macedonia, Bosnia and Slovenia, Montenegro and the Czech Republic — all success stories at containing Corona in the summer, having come later to overall mortality rates comparable with the UK and France. Alongside the above, Armenia and Bulgaria have surpassed Sweden, while Romania isn’t far behind.

— I have predicted that COVID-19 will not seriously affect third world countries, despite the poorly developed medical system and overall disregard for human lives.

The reasons were the following — These counters have a relatively young population. Young people are generally able to clear the infection without much medical help. — Due to other endemic deadly illnesses (malaria, etc), these countries have relatively few people that are close to death and kept alive by the medical system. Thus, many of those who could have been killed by Corona were already killed by other things (malaria, etc).

This was largely proven true. COVID-19 hasn’t proven to be a problem at all in Africa.

India seems to have come to the end of the first wave with only 0.01% dead. Afghanistan has half of that.

Sure, there are more deaths and cases to come, but nothing near enough to justify a loss of 25% of India’s GDP.

We should not forget that the average Indian dies 10 years too soon, while the average African of Afghan maybe as much as 30 years before his or her time. COVID-19 victims, on average, appear to die about 2 years too soon. Thus, Africa and India would be far better off trying to reduce mortality from causes unrelated to COVID-19 than worrying about COVID-19 itself.

— I have predicted that Trump has placed himself in a position that he can’t leave office safely, as a free man. This has proven true, as illustrated by his desperate fight to steal the electoral victory from his democratic rival, Joe Biden.

— I have predicted that Trump will benefit from the COVID-19 war and win the election.

I hope I was wrong about the election. He certainly had an electoral advantage and scored much higher than expected. I am so very glad Biden won because it gives the world hope.

Trump is still in a position that he can’t peacefully leave office.

He and his allies would rather bring Democracy itself to an end rather than follow will of the people, as measured by an imperfect election and counting mechanisms that are too hard to control.

He seems to have forgotten that this is all a game. It isn’t that important who wins the election. What matters is that the election has a winner and that the loser accepts its faith and the show goes on. This was perfectly illustrated by the Bush vs Gore match, when a different recount in Florida would have likely led to a different president. Yet, the randomness of the choice between shockingly equal candidates was accepter and the show continued. Both Bush and Gore remained respectable free men, perhaps with the slightly wrong one in the White House. It’s not presidential to ruin relations between friends for a silly presidency.

Trump is taking things too personally. He’s placed himself in a position where he can’t leave office peacefully and he is considering ending democracy instead.

If there was any substance to the impeachment process — where he was tried for trying to attack the son of Joe Biden in order to rig the election, his commitment to democracy has now been made crystal clear. His current attempt to rig the current election, done officially, above board, in the US, should be sufficient for impeachment.

— I have called this COVID-19 Phenomenon a World War. I stand by that, despite the absence of nuclear weapons from the fight. We’ll see what comes next. Aliens, maybe?

The changes in human rights, freedom, GDP’s and rankings of world powers is certainly reminiscent of war.

The current situation is a danger to democracy and the current world order.

COVID-19 was, in my view, a trigger and a catalyst in the World’s transition to a war-like state. This state is likely to continue beyond the end of the pandemic.

The pandemic should end soon after the American election gets settled. By January 20, the virus would have infected most people in the countries that matter and, for the rest, there will be a vaccine.

I hope to be proven wrong on this, but I fear the war is likely to continue, perhaps with a different official purpose in mind. Will it be the Environment next time? Maybe.

The COVID situation in Germany: Two weeks before Christmas

Two days ago, Germany was the 4th country in the world ranking for daily Corona deaths. The US leads by far with nearly 3000 deaths, while Brazil and Italy are slightly ahead.

Yesterday, Germany slipped to 6th place, having been overtaken by Mexico, Poland and Russia.

Germany had a surprisingly successful package of measures to stop the spread of the virus. They pay the price for it now. While Belgium can be relatively certain of herd immunity, and countries like France, Spain, Italy, UK and, possibly, Sweden aren’t far off, poor Germany has a vast population that hasn’t been infected with the Coronavirus just yet. Some of them will soon be, while, perhaps few others will benefit from the upcoming vaccine.

My guess, based on the 0.2% mortality rate, is that, given the current cumulative death of 0.025%, as little as 12% of Germans have been exposed to the virus. Perhaps that number is higher, but I find it hard to believe it’s above 20%. Nearly one million of these people had a positive test.

The most optimistic possibility would be that the German Covid-19 mortality would be comparable to Sweden’s. Sweden allowed the virus to run free in summer, perhaps infecting most of the population. They then allowed a 2nd wave in winter, which turned out to be much smaller than in summer. This suggests Sweden has reached herd immunity.

Sweden’s mortality rate is 0.0724% or about one third of the 0.2% I expected. This would be fantastic news, if true. The relatively swift ending of the 2nd wave supports the possibility that this is indeed true. Thus, Sweden would have conquered the virus with a minimum of life lost.

If we were to assume that Germany is as successful as Sweden, they’d still be only one third of the way into infecting the entire population.

Whichever way we turned it, with Christmas coming and the Christmas market opening, Germany is very far from herd immunity.

Thus, many of us will cough this Christmas.

It is the Eve before Lockdown...

It's the eve of lockdown and all through the train people are coughing left and right. The trains aren’t as full as they used to be a few days ago. The number of sick people is the same. We are in the middle of a pandemic in Germany. Most passengers appear sick. Most people in my train cough and some blow their noses -- all tell tale signs of a cold.

Which cold? This is always the question. People cough. I think it is the coronavirus. I cough as well, so I don’t stand out.

Slovakia is now conducting nationwide COVID-19 tests. I presume they will find a vast number of infected people and prove that the disease isn’t as deadly as feared. I predicted the mortality rate to be in the region of 0.2% in February and published this number on this blog and in a book in March. The moment of the truth is now overdue. It should happen, conveniently, just after the US election.

Americans don’t like to change political direction and the president in the middle of the war. Thus, it has become a tradition to start some kind of war when a president wants to be reelected. We’ve had Kosovo, Iraq, and the war on/of Terror. During the 2nd World war, a president managed to even get 3 terms in office — the one and only time in history when such a feat was achieved.

Now, Trump has followed the tradition and, in honor of the American election, the world has blown a cold out of proportion — all the way to a world war. India’s GDP is down 25%, and with about 100 000 deaths, COVID-19 hasn’t led to much loss of life. We should not forget that over 10 million Indians die every year — most of them far too soon. The average life expectancy in India is considerably shorter than in the West. Those years don’t have to be lost. The 10 million Indians that died this year were, on average, over a decade too young, while COVID-19 death are, on average, only one or two years younger than people who die without COVID-19. Yet, the Coronavirus has brought the world in a state of war.

The election is coming up. Thus, I predict

— TRUMP will win. Americans don’t like to change the course of politics in the middle of a war.

— Upon winning the election, he will follow up in the last minute electoral promise and end the COVID-19 Pandemic with a tweet. He’s seen the virus. He and his team fought and defeated it. They spread it a a few rallies. Nothing terrible happened. The rest of America can do the same. At a mortality of 0.2%, we’re looking at 400 000 deaths if half of the population gets infected. Twice that, if it’s gonna be like NY everywhere. Not nice, but not the end of the world. In the US, almost 240 000 people have died already from/with COVID-19.

— With the pandemic ended by the tweet, Trump will proceed to MAGA - Make America Great Again. Success lies in the failure to contain the virus. The worst the quarantine, the faster the whole population gets infected and the easier it is to restart the economy.

While the countries successful at stopping the virus will need to continue the quarantine and lockdowns indefinitely, the ones that fail will enjoy herd immunity and the freedom to develop economically until the next pandemic comes along.

The Anti-Trump sentiment around the world will help promote politicians that favor containment of the Coronavirus and thus longer economic shutdowns. This will give America a head start of a in the new world.

As for the rest of the world, judging by what I see in the train around me, I think the pandemic will soon be over. We will all be infected. It’s never the entire population, but most of us. Herd immunity will be achieved. This may be short lived, like it is with the other coronaviruses. Thus, herd immunity achieved this winter may not prevent another wave next winter.

We could move in brave new world where COVID-19 infects a large portion of the population every winter. The first infection may be more severe than subsequent ones. It may be that only this first infection is likely to lead to viral pneumonia, while subsequent ones may only manifest themselves as normal colds. Thus, in the future, we’ll have to live with one more cold. This may displace other cold viruses or increase our cold burden to some extent. As only children will have the primary infection and children are adapted to have a rather easy form, it may not be the end of the world.

The world war we’ve made out of this and its consequences will sure last.

Saul wins the Einstein Prize from APS

Saul Teukolsky won the 2021 Einstein Prize from the APS. He shares it with Cliff Will. They say it's "for outstanding contributions to observational tests of general relativity with theories of gravitational waves, astrophysical black holes, and neutron stars."

Saul was my PhD advisor together with Ira Wasserman. They were amazing. I've watched Saul build the group that run the first simulation that produced a BH waveform -- the first orbit was such a big thing -- and then they produced LIGO templates. Later LIGO saw something very similar to the templates, and the first gravitational waves were observed. The books Saul has written: Numerical Recepies and "Black Holes, White Dwarfs and Neutron Stars" are in the library of most graduate students across the world. I can't think of anyone who deserves the prize more. So proud!

Andrea Ghez wins the Nobel Prize in Physics

UCLA's Andrea Ghez, a fierceless explorer of our galaxy, wins the Nobel Prize. She proved that supermassive black holes exist in galactic centres observationally by mapping the movement of stars. Their high velocity implied the presence of a very heavy object. In addition to being a wonderful astronomer, she is the mother of two boys, which means she succeeded in being both a mom and an award winning scientist and that there is hope for other women who want to have it all. She breaks the 60 year cycle by wining the Nobel Prize in physics only two years after Donna Strickland. Donna won hers for generating high intensity, ultra-short pulses of light. Before Donna, the previous female Nobel laurate was Maria Goeppert-Mayer in 1963. Then came Marie Curie in 1903. Thank you, Andrea, for being such an inspiration!

Andrea shares her prize with Sir Roger Penrose, who showed that black holes were a viable theoretical possibility, and Reinhard Genzel, the co-director of the Max Planck Institute for extra-terrestrial physics.

The Nobel Prize in Chemestry was also awarded to two women -- Emmanuelle Charpentier and Jennifer A. Doudna -- for developing a method known as CRISPR-cas9, which enables the precise editing of specific genes in the DNA to, e.g., remove errors that lead to diseases.

From clocks to corn and potatoes to politics to life

This morning I had a meeting with colleagues from Bucharest and Timisoara on potentially building a centre for atomic clock research in Romania. It is not clear where the money would come from, and what can be proposed and where, but there is some enthusiasm. I am the only one without affiliation to a Romanian institution because there is little room here for people from abroad.

Then in the afternoon I went to Salbagel with my mom and the kids. With the help of two ladies from the neighorhood -- both in their fifties -- we picked our potatoes and some of the corn. We had planted one sack of potatoes in the spring, and tomatoes, pumpkins, cucumbers, carrots, salad, raddishes, onions, peppers, and beans. We had some salad, raddishes, carrots, onions and beans earlier in the summer during and before the heavy rains started. Then today we picked three sacks of potatoes, a sack of nuts, which need to be cracked later, three sacks of corn for the chicken, six pumpkins and a few figs. The rest of the vegetables were either over-run with grass or just rotted away. Several trees dried because of the combination of rain and draught. I did not think trees could have too much water.

While I held the baby, and Edward and the ladies dugged and picked potatoes, we had a group discussion on world-affairs and on local affairs. My helpers were factory workers. One had extended family working in Spain. They said the COVID deaths were few both here and abroad. They did not know anyone who had been sick or had died from COVID-19. In Lugoj we know of a relative of a friend who died of COVID-19. She was 94 years old, and had a stroke before she caught COVID-19. Another death is the neighbor of another friend. He was severely overweight at 150 kg, and could not lose weight. Last year he had caught pneumonia and barely survived with damaged lungs. This year he got out in the rain and got COVID-19. He did not make it. His wife also had COVID and survived. If one divides the number of daily deaths by the number of counties, they get between one and two deaths per county per day. It's not signficant and people are angry and afraid of getting locked-in again and losing the little they have. They don't trust leaders. They don't trust that the measures are for the good of little people like them and us. They think this virus is used to make the very rich even richer and to ruin their future, and the future and livelihood of their children and grandchildren. They are not the kind of people who would go out and protest. They don't have the time or the inclination for such matters.

They work hard. In two hours the potatoes, corn and nuts were picked. They delve into family history. One lady is the Godmother of the other. The aunt of the God-daugther owned my house before her daugther sold it to the person I bought it from. With the money she purchased a one room apartment in a small, nearby city because she was tired of working on the farm. The house has four rooms in two separate buildings, 6000 square meters of garden attached, and a nice well with a bucket, which is the only water source at the moment. This cousin did not invite her to her mother's funeral. This was unjust because her mother had helped them even though they had only been half-sisters -- only the father was common. So, the revenge was that she did not invite the cousin to her own mother's funeral, and they don't speak now. She still felt bitter that the cousin was visiting other people when she returned to the village, but not herself. I did not know that funerals were attended by invitation. But each area has different customs.

The two ladies are the only ones in their families who work in the garden. They are both overweight, but kind, hard-working, and very efficient -- they are so much faster at field-work than me or than their own children that I feel useless, lazy and ashamed of not doing more each day. What will happen to the land when they are gone? One has a son and three grand-children because her daugther-in-law is religious. The daugther-in-law is only 25, blond with long, thick, curly hair and still very pretty. She might have even more children (I feel ancient at 38). She does not help in the garden because she cares for the children and her husband does not do much either, but he works for a company and carried the sacks of corn and potatoes to the car for us. Perhaps one of the grandchildren will take interest in field-work, and learn from his grandmother. The other lady has two children, and two grand-children. One of the grand-children is in their first year of medical school and the other is seven and likes pupies. They ask me what I do. I tell them that I worked in a university teaching science and mathematics and doing research until four years ago, and now I am a caretaker with an interest in science and education. They have respect for math. Few can do it well and teach it to others. I forget to say I write. But I only do so when I don't have enough energy for one of the many chores that need to get done or when I cannot sleep like today. I am not particularly good at keeping a house clean, at cooking or at being a caretaker, but I do my best. These two ladies understand me better than my colleagues or my brother who think I do nothing all day.

Health Experts join anti-lockdown movement

BBC news reports that several thousand health experts and scientists around the world have joined the anti-lockdown movement. Nearly 6,000 experts, including dozens from the UK, say the approach is having a devastating impact on physical and mental health as well as society. They argue that the harmful effects of the measures have not been studied or taken into account, and that low-risk individuals need to be allowed to function normally while providing extra care for the most vulnerable. This means that they recommend schools should stay open and have in-person teaching. While this approach is still controversial due to the long-COVID cases, it seems to be favored by majority of the population.

In Romania (and in the rest of the world) the number of cases are growing as are the number of deaths. There were over 70 deaths today. Generally, about 800 people die daily in Romania from all causes. Given that the COVID numbers are only 10%, the numbers are relatively low. In hospitals, the COVID sections here are reported to hold 30 to 50 beds and often have just one sink and one bathroom. The medication given to treat COVID-19 causes several days of severe diarrhea and vomiting. I imagine doing that in the one shared sink and bathroom, which is cleaned sporadically, and shudder. If a person is old and/or has pre-existent conditions, and the weather is hot -- this summer had months of temperatures over 30 degrees, their probability of survival must go down. They mix people who have symptoms with people who are asymptomatic and let them care for each other in this blissful one-sink, one-bath environment with doctors and nurses visting rarely while dressed in these strage suits and staying as little as possible because they are afraid for their own lives. Each person stays there for two weeks. For non-COVID patients, all health care is delayed, unless it's an emergency, until the COVID test comes back, and then the care provided is more questionable than ever before. People are surprised by the high number of daily deaths and that the number is going up. I am only surprised the number of deaths is so low. It brings us to question if COVID is really that deadly and how much more deadly do we make it than it has to be. It would be better if the healthcare system was functional and prepared and if there were no random measures in place that debilitate.

Restricting movement and social interaction in ways that cause severe depression and deepen existent health problems in people of all ages while taking measures that successfuly decimate the heath care systems accross the world and temporarily destroy the educational system and then assigning random grades to students cannot be good. I am glad some scientists and some health experts agree that the approach is wrong. Will the approach change? It remains to be seen.

The most famous man in the world, Donald Trump, has the coronavirus. What next?

How will this play out? Below is my attempt at predicting the future. We will see in a few months if I am correct.

While I believe the overall mortality rate for the Coronavirus to be about 0.2%, in Donald Trump’s age group, and with his risk factors (stress, work, overweight), the mortality should be considerably higher than average. He is old, overworked and with a few extra pounds. As a public figure he might also have been exposed to a significat viral quantity. So, it would not be surprising if he gets seriously ill before he gets better.

In my view, the most likely scenario is
— Trump recovers after a week or two. Like Berlusconi or Prince Charles, he makes a full recovery and returns to the campaign.
— Biden is likely to catch COVID-19, too. It’s not the sort of thing we can protect ourselves from indefinitely. Already, between one quarter and one half of the US population has been infected. It won’t be long until everybody in the US gets this virus. Biden is also very old and fragile.
— With Biden dead or also disabled by Corona, Turmp goes on to win the election. His chief electoral promise is that he will end the Corona crisis and make America Great. When choosing between two old presidents, both Corona high risk, the American electorate would be inclined to choose the one with immunity to the illness.
— Once elected, Trump will end the Corona Crisis by presidential decree and publish it on Twitter. As all precautionary measures are rolled back, the virus will also stop naturally as it runs out of people it can infect. Trump can use his personal example to deal with the virus.
— China’s Xi also ended the Corona pandemic by presidential decree. It probably also worked once everyone was infected. Otherwise, there should have been a 2nd wave. The Chinese funeral law was amended to speed up cremations and to make it difficult to count the dead.
— As the world will disagree with Trump, they will continue the quarantine, putting America on path to becoming great again.

Sure, there is always a chance the experimental therapies tried on Trump won't work and he will die, or, like the much younger Boris Johnson, stay disabled for some time. Furthermore, Trump is sufficiently annoying to many in the US political scene to, perhaps, justify tweaking his treatment plan so, perhaps, he dies.

It seems sloppy, incompetent management of the Corona crisis is the best strategy: allow the population to get infected as quick as possible and return the economy to normal.

A requirement for the return to normality is that there are fewer cases. This is, in general, only achieved once everyone is infected and the diseases dies out.

Mihai on Physics and COVID-19 with Suzette

Suzette has a wonderful youtube channel called "Suzette is exploring the world". She talks to various scientists and works hard to make her videos come to life. Here she interviewed Mihai on his science career and on our COVID-19 book. Thank you and keep the good work, Suzette! Science needs more talented women like you!

Trump tests positive for COVID-19

He'll probably make it just like Boris Johnson did ... unfortunately COVID-19 is not a reliable killer when one wants it to be... Of course, I don't want to be glad of others misfortunes, but in this case I might make an exception. Although, I have to remind myself that Trump is human, and the image we see of him was mostly created by the media.

Cleaning lady wins elections: democracy in Russia?

She entered the competition because her boss wanted a sure win. Marina Udgodskaya, a cleaning, lady wins elections in a Russian village! The village is supportive. They say that they will help her be a good mayor. It's too early to tell, but she might go down in history as an influential politician. Modesty and asking for opinions from people who care and for the right kind of help might just be more important than pedigree when trying to get things done. For now, she turned off her phone, and continues to clean the floors until the current mayor leaves office, which is a statement in itself.

I wonder how many people would vote for a member of White House cleaning staff to replace the US president? They must be qualified to end up there. Likely the cleaning ladies (or gentlemen) of the White House can give more coherent speaches than the president. And not just in the US -- in many other countries, which we call democratic. But is democracy really true today? Especially with the COVID-19 measures?

The transparent children

When I was growing up, I remember that in the summer there were mothers who would not let their children inside until 8 p.m.. When asked why, they said it was in order to keep their house clean. The beach by the river was so full of people that one had no place to step because the blankets were so close to each other. There were groups of children who'd play there all day. They'd play football or various other games, and jump in the water and scream. The streets were also full of children who played ball.

Today, the opposite is true. Children are always inside. The streets are empty except for perhaps a token child who drives his bike forlornly looking for company and finding none. When I go to the beach by the river, almost everyone there is retired. There are a few middle aged ladies, and the rest are retired men, who enjoy each other's company. Most come alone while their significant others cook, clean, care for grandchildren and/or watch TV at home. About once or twice in the summer a grandchild is torn away from his electronic devices, and dragged to the beach. There they play a bit in the dirt, and do not come again the next day. There is also a mother with twin daughters in their early teens. They came once when she took their phones away while the mother comes daily -- alone or with their dad. Gone are the days when children would skip chores to go for a swim with their friends or beg to go on vacation. Often the parents go on vacation alone because their teenage children don't want to come. They'd rather be home on their phone without their parents in their hair. As for the chores, their ability to do them is more and more limited, and even in villages the number chores is decreasing. People often have empty yards that maybe host a dog, and buy food from the store.

As we walk by a place that sells phones I hear voices. Two older ladies with long, wide skirts and an accent are buying a phone. Their port, their speech, and their hands show that they are from the country and that they are no strangers to work in the fields. So, they are offered the simplest, cheapeast kind of phone. It has buttons and costs 50 lei. They return it and say "please give me one with a mirror so that the grandchildren can come to visit" (by mirror they mean screen). The grandchildren no longer come to help with the harvest or even to eat the good food cooked by grandma and play outside. If they come at all, they come to be on their phones just like at home.

I hear people in their seventies discussing: "I still sit straight, but my granddaughter does not because she is always crunched down buttoning her phone." Back problems have become so frequent in teenagers. Gone are the tanned imps who'd run around all day and skip chores to play ball.

Sometimes I look at the younger children who are inside all day on their phone or tablets. Their skin is often so white that it seems trasparent. They look so fragile, and yet so beautiful. In the same time somehow they seem out of this world, and without much life in them. Some walk on their toes. Others don't speak, but can write words in English because they use them to look for movies on their phones. The parents are proud of their child's phone use. I shudder. Autism is so frequent nowadays, and so are tantrums that happen if the phone or tablet is briefly taken away. The lockdown and the switching of school to the online medium has made the screen addiction so much worse for those who were somewhat functional. I wonder when will society admit that screen adiction is dangerous and makes one disfunctional just like alcohol and other drugs. For now everyone is encouraged to be on their screens, just like everyone was encourgaed to smoke for most of the 20th century.

The daughter of the beach

The summer was particularly long this year. It ended with September, and temperatures are predicted to rise again towards the beginning of October. The second, really dry part of the summer was wonderful for swimming and for hanging out by the river. We went almost daily. The only child that was there reliably was a little girl. She is a year younger than James, and looks a bit like him. At two, she is stunningly beautiful with long blond hair and very talkative. She knew everyone on the beach -- each person, and each dog -- and talked to every person who came. An old couple called her the daughter of the beach, and the name stuck with me.

Since there were, generally, no other children to play with she would come talk to the adults. She knew their professions, and many fed her from whatever food they brought for themselves. She picked and chose from the food as any well-cared for child, but she loved the attention. She was particularly fond of James as the only other child close enough in age to play with. She taught him to put away his clothes and toys. How? James left his clothes on the grass as usual, and once when he returned after a walk with Andy, David and Edward she was wearing his clothes and playing with his toy plane. Since then, James put his clothes back in the car after he undressed, and carefully put away his toys. When asked why, he clearly explained it was so that she would not have them. She had plenty of toys herself.

She came to the beach with her father -- a former kick box champion, who is about fourty, and two of his friends, who are young men in their twenties. He loves her, and lets her be herself. They often swim along the river together and she sits on his shoulders. Sometimes her grandma comes along. She is a retired nurse.

Last year this little girl had a mother. She was not following other people along back then -- but still liked us because of James. The mom is a stunning young woman in her early twenties; one of the most beautiful women I had seen to date. They came to the river all summer. Sometimes the grandmother would come along, and towards the end the grandmother stopped getting along with the young woman and the son took his mother's side. The young woman stopped showing up.

This year they separated. The father proudly tells me he has full custody of the child, and assures me the child no longer remebers her mother because she is only two and too young to know. When asked where her mom is by one of the old people on the beach, the daugther of the beach answers that her mom is home sick. He explains that mom offered to drop all charges in exchange for visitation rights, but he insisted on a full win where he is entitled to call the police if the mom comes near her child. He justifies his choice by saying that if he sees her, he might hit her again.

The feminist in me shudders. This story is a reminder that money and power still matter more than any other aspects, and also that things are not always black and white. It could be worse. The child is healthy. She is tanned, runs about all day on the river bed surrounded by a community who loves her and seems happy. It would be better for her if her parents were together and got along, but it's unclear what seeing her mom now and then + more fights would do.

The previous daugthers of the beach were the twins who showed up once this year when their phones were taken away from them. They have two parents and are also blond and very pretty. Given the problems that we have with David and his phone, I sometimes wonder if we are often bound to lose our children early, sometimes to a partner, other times to technology and often to a world that does not appreciate our effort in raising them.

The yellow scenario

Summer is finally over. It is the evening before elections and it's raining. We are electing the local leaders -- the various city mayors. There is no school for the first two days next week because the schools are voting centers here, and they need to be cleaned to allow people to vote safely. Voting by mail is not trusted here.

Our county -- the Timis -- falls in the yellow scenario, which splits school children in two groups. One group goes to school each week and the other stays at home and attempts to connect to class via the internet. Then they switch. The children and the teachers wear masks, and the school hours range from 8:30 to 13:30 with some extra time online. The class size does not matter. David has 15 colleagues, and Edward has almost 30. Yet each group of kids is split in half as if they were the same size. It takes me a long time to get Edward to do his homework, but I hope we will enter into a routine at some point. Each week a new schedule is assigned, and both the children and the teachers are confused. They have no books because they used to be passed on from the previous generation and now the books are in quarantine for two weeks until they will become safe to use. The parents try to be supportive. My goal is to get Edward to do his homework, and to keep him off the computer and off the internet as much as possible.

The children bet on when schools will close again. We could go from the yellow scenario to the red scenario soon after elections or from the yellow scenario to the green scenario if the number of cases drop. Red means all classes would be online, and green means all students would go to school in person if there is room for them to obey the social distancing rules, and parents are willing to buy new seats and refurnish classrooms to make kids fit. Given that fall is coming, a switch from yellow to red is more likely than the switch to green, but they say it will depend on the number of positive tests. Most universities in Timisoara are already offering only online classes this semester.

Everyone is angry and afraid. The anger stems from the measures taken against COVID-19. It's not the mask wearing that disturbs. It is the fear that our freedom is slowly being taken away again, and that it's happening world-wide with no place to escape to. The number of deaths are still largely at noise level - well under 10% of the usual daily number. In Romania, about 800 people die every day, and COVID-19 has taken somewhere between 30 and 60 lives a day. This means between 1 and 2 people die daily in every county -- if one averages over the number of counties in Romania. So, the numbers are not large, but they are espected to increase this fall. Personally, those we know who tested positive to COVID-19 were either asymptomatic or with mild symptoms. My mother is a doctor, and many of her friends and colleages must have been exposed to the virus. Yet, luckily, we know nobody who suffers from side effects. The number of positive cases still largely depends on the number of tests, and has large error bars that do not seem to be well estimated.

The borders are still open and some planes fly. Andy went back to the UK last week, and David wanted to go to Germany to see his dad. They had not seen each other in a year, and Mihai repeatedly mentioned a visit of a few weeks. So, Andy extended his travel with a day and increased the price of his ticket to take David along. While life is still really hard with my father being paralyzed and the children and the animals and so many other things to manage, it became slightly easier without a moody teenager around. Although, we do miss David, we know he is having a good time and hopefully improving his German while doing his homework and participating in classes online. They've been watching the protests in Germany from a safe distance. I hope they will not escalate. Andy is in quarantine at his apartment -- busily writing a propsal. I sometimes wish my life was that simple again or that I had the time and energy to write about science, but I am also glad to be useful and to try to make my children feel happy and safe in spite of what's going on in the world. I, however, feel so alone, and so much not the responsible adult I should be.

I no longer read the news daily. I am tired of being afraid. Most protests don't seem to be in the international news -- I wonder if it's because there is a plan to impose more restrictions soon. Hospitals are dysfunctional and I pray that my children won't get sick any time soon. We are lucky to have my mom at home who is a doctor, but I would still prefer to not have any accidents. James spends most of his time chasing the various animals around. Edward reads and tries to help when he can. He also plays with James now that he is older and smacks him a bit too much, but it's hard to be patient when one is 10.

RIP Ruth Bader Ginsburg

The whole world has been mourning Ruth Bader Ginsburg. She passed away at the age of 87 after finally lossing her battle with pancreatic cancer. She is mostly known for serving in the Supreme Justice Court and for championing women's rights. She was a Cornell gaduate -- obtaining her Bachelor degree from Cornell at the age of 21. There she met her husband and had the courage to start a family before starting law school at Harvard. This did not stop her from changing the world as we knew it by founding the Women's Rights Project and fighting against discrimination on behalf of both men and women.

She left behind a career that led to a miriad of changes that have empowered women, and a family formed from two children, four grand-children, and a great-grandchild. Her most fevent dying wish was to not be replaced until another president is sworn in office. Of course, president Trump is trying to replace her. It remains to be seen if he will succeed.

Results from Iceland: Antibodies after 4 months + a fatality rate of 0.3%

In February, I estimated a fatality rate for COVID-19 of 0.2%. Here is a large scale Icelandic study that puts forward an estimate of 0.3%. The study also suggests antibodies are present four months after infection, which implies reinfection with the same virus strain will not occur.

Since schools have started or are preparing to start throughout Europe, this study is good news. Universities in the US are also testing entire populations of students, and some of the data is public. The kids who test positive are sent home and told to return after three weeks. While some closed soon after they started, I expect we will soon have enough data to open and stay open in spite of COVID-19.

The price of lockdown: lives lost today vs. those cut short due to tragedies of the past

 In this post, we will be looking at the impact of COVID-19 and that of the imposed lockdown and compare to other events in history.

Lives lost to COVID-19 deaths
So far, COVID-19 has killed about one million people worldwide. Each person lost, on average, 2 years of life expectancy. Most patients were old and had preexisting conditions that placed them, on average, 2 years before their natural deaths.

Thus, about 2 million person years have been lost to corona.

Lives lost to COVID-19 sickness
If we look at the 25 million confirmed cases and assume each person lost 2 weeks of their life being sick, we have another million person years.

We should, maybe, consider that, perhaps half a billion people were actually sick, so the number of years lost to illness is probably much greater — perhaps 20 million person years.

Thus, the bulk of the loss is not in the people dying, but in the time spent home being sick.

The world however, overemphasizes the loss of life through death and cares little about the time wasted at home with a fever or other forms of discomfort due to the virus. We shall thus do the same.

Lives lost due to the worldwide disturbance created by COVID-19
The Coronavirus has triggered a worldwide disturbance. On average, most places have been locked down for about 2 months. The world population is nearly 8 billion people. If only 6 billion are affected by the lockdown, the cost should be about one billion person years. That is 500 times more than the numbers of years lost by the people who actually died of Corona so far.

Lives lost in other events throughout history
The Holocaust. For comparison, about 6 million lives were lost in the Holocaust. On average, each victim lost about 30 years. Thus, we’re talking about 180 million person years, or one fifth of the cost of Corona quarantine worldwide.

In Europe alone, we've lost half as many life years as in the Holocaust to the COVID-19 lockdown, whereas the people who died of COVID-19 lost only 1% of the life years lost to the Holocaust. 

If we take into account that the years lost to COVID-19 were mostly terminal end-of-life care and both the Holocaust and the lockdown robbed people of all ages of mostly good years, the difference is even greater and the absurdity of these measures more pronounced. 

We are just beginning to see the effects of the world-wide economic depression caused by lockdown, of the mental breakdown of the children held out of school and in front of their phones or computers for most hours of the day, and of the older folk who limited their movement so much that they lost ability to move. We also don't see the wars or the resulting hunger as of yet. We see some people on the streets protesting, but most of the developed world is still comfortable even if most are too afraid to eat out or go on vacations.

Natural mortality in lockdown vs. COVID-19 mortality
People live about 1000 months -- think 100 years with roughly 10 months in a year. They die once in a lifetime, so 1 in 1000 average people will die every month. Thus, for a 2 month quarantine, the natural mortality rate is 0.2% -- the same as that my estimated mortality due to COVID-19. Spain -- with increased testing -- found the COVID-19 mortality to be hovering around 0.2-0.3% now that the virus is affecting younger members of the population.

Italy Lockdown
March 9 - 4 May
Source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_lockdown_in_Italy#:~:text=On%201%20April%2C%20Minister%20of,will%20be%20allowed%20to%20open.


France Lockdown
March 17 - 11 May
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_France

Holocaust Deaths — 6 000 000
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Holocaust

World War II deaths — 75 000 000

In spite of events like the Holocaust or WWII, people have proven to be resilient in the past. After the bombing in Hiroshima, the trams were immediately repaired and they started running again just 3 days later. Transport did help the survivors rebuild their lives. Now, the primary measure is to limit people's ability to travel. Even with tests and masks available everywhere we see borders closing and as the fall approaches the European Union seems to disappear yet again.

The Cat Emperor

There was once upon a time a cat who had a bird kingdom.  His advisers were an old-lame duck and two collared doves. His guards were one hundred white geese, and his soldiers were one hundred thousand chicken. He lived next to his arch enemy the fox emperor. After some time he noticed his soldiers start to go missing. He hides to find the culprits, and saw it was the foxes again. A fierce battles started between the two emperors. However, the cat was prepared. He had dressed in two layers of buffalo-skin (not sure where he got that from, but I've seen this in other stories). So, when the fox would bite, he bit the buffalo skins, while when the cat bit, he bit flesh. This way the emperor fox lost his life. In the next day, when the foxes saw their emperor dead, they left and did not come back. This is how the emperor cat lived happily for however many days he had left.

The end.

Note: Here we had to write a story about an imaginary being. It had to contain numerals, and adjectives, which we underlined.

 Dad suggested I write about my handwriting. It could go along the lines:

Title: The secret behind my ugly hand writing

My handwriting is so ugly because I don't actually do my own homework. My mom insists I do my homework so much that my goat Edwina decides to intervene and does it in my place. Since she does not have hands, and she cannot hold a pen in any of her four feet, she uses her mouth instead. It is somewhat similar to untying knots, and Edwina Cleverbrain is a smart goat with aspirations to one day go to school herself. Only nowadays children study online every other week, and the connection is never good enough to actually learn much. So, the goat decides to wait until life is normal again and simply learn by doing some of my homework instead. She is quite good in math, but misspells a lot in English, Romanian and German. She forgets rules like those that say that all nouns are capital in German or that sentences start with capital letters and randomly unites words in Romanian. As for English -- it's a misspelled language in the first place.

 Edwina is grey with a bit of black and a some white. She has beautiful brown eyes. In Romanian, all brown eyes are "caprui" or goat-like. Dad was surprised when he saw David had goat-like eyes in his passport. Perhaps the English equivalent would be hazel. My mom says Edwina looks like a princess -- when I read stories I imagine princess with long ears with numbers on them, long snouts and beautiful goat-like eyes. My dad loves cats, and dislikes most of the other pets that mom got for us. So,  I submitted a cat story. He is leaving soon, and I will miss him.

The magic flute

We were told to come up with a different ending to this story.

Petrisor was a 10 year old (same as me) who took such good care of his flock of sheep that the spirit of the forest offered a reward. This spirit was an old man who had a house full of riches. Petrisor ignored the gold, and jewelry since he did not think he had much use for them and instead picked an old wooden flute. The flute turns out to be magical. 

My first ending: The child has never had a flute before and certainly not one that produced such beautiful sounds. So, he plays the flute all day instead of caring for the sheep. He becomes fat and lazy. The flute is like one of today's phones. The sheep get eaten by wolves. The spirit of the forest learns that even the best children cannot handle the addiction given by magical objects and from now on encourages people to only use the simple things they can make themselves.

A more intricate ending I came up with: Petrisor takes the small wooden flute and goes home. When he wakes up he sees the whole house filled with the gold and precious stones he did not take. He takes a few with him, and a sword and continues his job as a shepard. He gives away everything else to the people in his vilalge. When his singing is not enough, he uses the sword to defend his flock. Still, one day he notices that his sheep are disappearing at night-time. He sets guard, and finds it is a zmeu from the other land who must have suddenly taken a fancy of sheep milk. The zmeu is imune to the singing. So, he captures Petrisor and takes him home. He then locks him in a small room and forgets to give him much food (as if he had COVID-19; but back then people had to work hard to survive independent of the many viruses and other afflictions). There Petrisor hides under the bed. When the zmeu comes in and looks for him, he does not find him. Just as the zmeu opens the door, he sees Petrisor jumping out of his hiding place. Petrisor kills the zmeu with his sword. Once he gets out, he finds a beautiful girl in the kitchen. She turns out to be the daugther of the emperor, who had been stollen by the zmeu. Petrisor takes her back to her father. The emperor marries them when they reach the kingdom since they travelled unchaperoned. He does not know Petrisor is a shepard since he sees only the nice clothes and things he's taken from the zmeu's palace and assumes that Petrisor must own a kingdom. They all live happily until the end of their days. In Petrisor's village, some other children learn to take care of sheep, and Petrisor gives them the magic flute to keep the wolves at bay.

In the orginal story, Petrisor uses the flute to make the wolves dance with the sheep until the leader of the wolfes swears to keep away from them. In the end the emperor finds out about the magic flute, and tries to buy it from Petrisor at any cost. This does not work since Petrisor is not interested in gold or other riches; he only cares about sheep and is happy with his job. The emperor then locks Petrisor up and takes the flute away. When war comes he plays it to make his enemies dance, but it has not effect on them. He is taken prisoner, but one of his man picks up the flute and releases Petrisor who ends the war with his playing.

Greuceanu -- by Petre Ispirescu

This is the last of the stories by Romanian authors given as summer reading. I hope you enjoy reading my summaries. I don't enjoy writing them, but I know the teachers mean well. Mom says writing is good for me; she witheld my rights to new books until I finish all homework. It feels like I will never finish.

 The sun and the moon have gone missing! The emperor has promised his daughter and half of the kingdom to the person who brings back the Sun and the Moon from the 'zmei' -- from the other land. However, those who try and fail will have their heads cut off.

Author's note: It seems that in the past, young men would risk everything to marry the right kind of lady, which in this story comes with money and power. Ideally, the wife was supposed to also be beautiful, kind and forgiving, and produce children. Today people only discuss the latest gadget. They only care to have the best phone. Since phones cannot have children, natality is decreasing in most countries. David is the phone-loving category when he is home, but he does like traveling. He is now in Germany, and enjoys things like picking wild nuts, which he would never have cared for here just because he is with his father.

Greuceanu is a brave young man who has a way with words. On his way to the emperor he meets two sad young men. They are going to be killed becaused they ran away from murder, a.k.a battle. Greuceanu promises himself he will only undertake the retrieval of the sun and the moon if he manages to gain the forgiveness of the men. He sweet-talks the emperor into understanding that (1) it is unfair to kill the men, (2) they are more valuable as servants if they are alive than dead, and (3) the people will like him better of him if they think him merciful. The emperor forgives the men, but promises Greuceanu he would kill him if he fails even though he really likes him. This is because he has to be fair and keep his word -- since he already murdered some young men for failing to bring back the sun and the moon, he has to treat people equally.

The rest of the story proceeds as usual. Greuceanu murders two zmei who are brothers after they confess they are afraid of him. The youngest and strongest of the zmei even tells Greuceanu where the sun and the moon are, and that the key to their prison is his little finger. So, Greuceanu cuts his head off, and then cuts the little finger. Next, their wives try revenging their husbands by pretending to be a tree with golden pears and a very beautiful garden. They are both easily killed through stabbing. Then the mother of the women comes along and tries to eat Greuceanu. She is instead given his heated iron-likeness created by "Faurul pamantului" (the maker of the Earth) and dies after swallowing it.

On his way back, Greuceanu decides to be lazy, lays down in his cart and sends his brother ahead. A small demon steals his sword, and gives it to a servant who eagerly takes the credit for Greuceanu's work and shows the sword as proof. The emperor believes him, and emprisons Greuceanu's brother, but the preparations for the wedding take a long time. In the meantime, Greuceanu returns and asks for time to prove his case and bring the sword. The demon turns into a mountain of iron and keeps the sword in the mountain. Greuceau shatters the mountain by turning himself into a mace. The mountain shakes and asks for forgiveness, but greuceanu is merciless and turns the mountain into dust. He then retrieves his sword and goes back to the emperor. He marries the daughter in a celebration that lasts three weeks.

Doi Feti cu Stea in Frunte -- de Ioan Slavici -- The two Children with a Star on their Forehead

  Another story to summarize as vacation homework -- read and discussed with mom.

Once upon a time, there were three very beautiful sisters. They were the daughters of an oil merchant (Romania had lots of clean/pure oil; our oil fueled the second world war, but smaller amounts of oil were extracted and sold long before that.) The first one was so beautiful that sheep would stop eating when they saw her in their midst. The second sister was so beautiful that the wolves would come and guard her sheep. The third sister was more beautiful than the first two combined -- she was beautiful as only she could be. One day the emperor and two of his friends rode by.  The sisters were talking among themselves. The first one promised to make bread that would keep her husband forever young. The second one promised to make a shirt that he could wear through fire without getting burned and through water without getting wet. The youngest, called Laptita, said she would give birth to twins with golden hair and a star on their forehead.

 The emperor married Laptita, and his friends married the other sisters. The first two sisters deliver their miracles within a few weeks. We are then told of the presence of the evil step mother who had a daughter whom she wanted the emperor to marry.  The step mother also has a brother with a big army who declares war when his sister tells him to, which is just when Laptita is supposed to give birth. The emperor goes to war and Laptita gives birth to two magical children. The step mother, naturally, buries them alive in front of the window of their father -- one at each corner. When the emperor returns, he is presented with two puppies and told his wife gave birth to them. He believes it to be true AND punishes his wife by burying her alive up to her breasts in between the graves of her children. This must also be in front of his bed-room window.

[This story reinforces how silly grown-ups are. They believe what they are told even if it's clearly impossible. We see this with COVID-19. Forgiveness is also seldomly for women, but children are more important than living forever or going unscathed through fire or water. Still, the wife is buried alive and somehow survives to forgive her husband after he finally figures out he was wrong (incidentally, he marries another person in the meantime, but that's a detail -- the other person can just become a lowly servant; she is lucky to not be tied to the tail of the mad horse with her mother). The magical parts say what the children have to go through to be believed. We see they have to be impossibly resilient to save the day. Today, many children live in places where the natality is high, i.e., they live in war zones -- and survive impossible odds. Most never get to tell their stories, and if they do, it does not make a long-term difference. Grown ups make more wars and bury more children alive (and plenty of adults, too), and yet somehow humanity survives. But for how long?  let's, however, get back to the story...]

Two beautiful trees grow over the graves of the boys, while the step-mother convinces the son to marry her daughter -- i.e., his step-sister. The latter is disturbed by the beautiful trees. They remind her of her guilt. So, she convinces her husband to cut the trees and have beds made out of them. She cannot sleep well in the new bed either. So, she orders the beds to be burned and replaced by beds from ordinary trees. Two sparks jump out of the fire and turn into two golden lambs. The empress takes the lambs proudly to her husband because they were so friendly and beautiful. He becomes very fond of them, and his wife becomes jealous and convinces him to have them killed and cooked. Two pieces of their brains fall when the dishes are washed in a nearby river and turn into fish. The fish are caught by a fisherman who wants to sell them to the emperor. They start talking and tell him they would finally be killed if they were taken there. Instead, they advise the fisherman to gather morning dew and let them bathe in it until it dries. He does so and they turn into to little boys again with golden hair and a star on their forhead.

The boys learn and grow very fast. They also become stronger than oxen. The fisherman makes two hats from lamb skin to hide their golden hair and the shinny star on their foreheads. They then go to see their father. They bypass the guards, but the emperor kicks them out himself. The empress, however, is curious and asks to see them. It's dinner time and she seats on 13 pillows. When she sees them, she orders them out. The emperor does not agree this time and decides to hear their story. They tell the story of their life and each time a piece of truth is revealed a pillow falls from under the empress. At the end of their tale they take their hats off and reveal the stars and the golden hair to prove that everything they say is true.

The story ends with the emperor punishing his step-mother by tying her to the tail of a mad horse and sending the horse go around the country seven times so that everyone sees what happens to people who commit evil deeds. The current empress and wife is turned into the lowliest servant, while they unearth Laptita, who is still alive AND forgives him, and they all live happily ever after.

 This is a story by Ioan Slavici, but versions of it appear by other authors as well as in folklore. The Russian version we have read is called Ivan Preainteleptul. While in our story the girls fulfill their promises, in this story the first two sisters fail. The emperor has no friends. He thus marries all three sisters -- one at a time. He, naturally, discards them and remarries the next once each fails to fulfill her promise and admits it was just silly talk that was overheard. The last one, however, miraculously keeps her promise and gives births several times. Yet each time the children are taken from her, and imprisoned while the emperor is shown various animals. He loves her so much that he forgives her, while continuing to support her aggressor, and hopes that the next time would be different. He, however, never there when she gives births, but comes home just after the children are taken away. After the last birth the emperor finally disposes of his wife. She is thrown into the sea in a barrel with her last child where it is believed she will either drown or die of thirst/starvation.  The emperor marries the woman who imprisoned his children. Ivan Preainteleptul and his mother, however, escape and manage to build a place grater than that of his father by stealing some magical objects. Ivan releases his siblings, invites the emperor over to his palace, and convinces him of his folly by telling him the whole story.

Harap Alb -- by Ion Creanga -- A Summary

There was once upon a time a king who had three sons. One day he receives a letter from his brother, the Green Emperor, who was led a kingdom much bigger and richer than his own. The letter says he worries that his end is close, and that he wants the most worthwhile of his nephews to take his place since he only has three daughters and no son. So, he calls his three sons, and asks which one is ready to be emperor over such a large and rich country. The oldest answers that it would be his honor to be emperor and his birthright. He prepares everything he needs for the journey and leaves. 

 

To test him, the father goes out through a short-cut dressed in a bearskin, and hides under the first bridge. He scares both his son and the horse badly. They quickly return home explaining that he does not want to be eaten by wild beasts and that the far-away kingdom is not worth such a perilous journey  since he does not expect to inherit the Earth. The same happens with the second son. The father is upset that his sons failed the test. He says they need to be defended from chicken "apara-ma de gaini ca de caini nu ma tem" when they pretend not to be afraid of dogs, and that he did not believe his children would waste his food and overshadow the Earth for nothing. 

The third son goes out crying. He is ashamed for his brothers and sorry that his father is so disappointed in his sons. In the garden he meets an old woman asking for alms. He is sulky at first and asks to be left alone. Yet the beggar insists. She then tells the young prince that she sees the mistakes of leaders around the Earth and laughs at their many weaknesses, and that if he had her power, it would be too much for him to handle and he would destroy the Earth. Then she apologizes for speaking nonsense and asks for alms again. Eventually, he gives her a coin telling her to receive a little from him and more from God. As repayment, she tells him what's written in the stars about his fate: he will become an emperor more powerful than there had been on the face of the Earth before; he will also be just, respected and loved by all. She advises that his success relies on asking his father for the clothes and weapons from when he married, and for his horse on which he wondered the Earth. He will know the horse because he will be the only one to eat red-hot embers from a tray. She is then surrounded by a white veil and departs by slowly lifting herself to the skies. This miracle gives the youngest son the confidence he needs to ask for his father's permission.

After insistence, the king agrees to let the youngest prince undertake the quest his brothers have failed at with the condition that he does not return home if he too fails. He ridicules the idea of using his old clothes and horse suggesting he'll only find the bones. The prince insists the finding of the horse is his business, and that he only needs his father's permission. Once that's obtained, he goes straight to the attic. He finds the clothes and weapons and cleans them carefully. Then he goes to the stables with a tray of embers. An ugly, old horse who appears to be more dead than alive comes to eat them. The others run away.  He hits the skinny horse with the halter in the head as hard as he can, and tries without success to tempt the other horses. This happens three times -- until all the embers are gone. 

 

The ugly horse whose bones are showing is the only one who eats the embers. So, the prince sits there wondering if he should bother taking the horse or go by foot instead. The horse then shakes the old skin and ends up looking stronger and handsomer than all the other horses in the stables combined. He tells the prince to saddle and flies very fast: first to the Moon, then towards the Sun and towards the stars. He then asks the prince how it felt. The reply is "dizzy and close to death. I did not know where I was any more and I almost did not make it". The horse explains that this was how he felt when he was hit in the head. The maneuver is repeated three times -- one scare for each hit with the halter. 

 

The horse promises takes him to his father, and they leave. He promises to travel at the speed of the wind and not at the speed of thought, which the prince says would kill him. They soon leave and meet the king dressed as a bear under the bridge, but the horse jumps at him and the prince lifts his sword to cut his head off. The father admits it's him and asks them to stop. He then hugs and kisses both his son and the horse and tells the son he's made a wonderful choice in his companion. Before they leave, he advises the prince to avoid the bald man and the red man and to listen to the horse. The horse turns into the skinny, old version of himself to not attract trouble and they move on.

After traveling for some time they reach a forest and get lost in it. A bald man offers to help three times -- each time he is dressed in different clothes and pretends to be a new person. The prince finally agrees to hire him as a servant against his father's wishes. The bald one spills all his water and takes him to a well with a ladder in it and no bucket or string. He then tricks the prince to go inside by telling him it's cool. So, the prince ends up locked in the well and can only escape if he agrees to change places and become the servant of the bald man. He is asked to swear that he will obey and not break his word on his sword. He does so and is renamed "Harap Alb". The name is a bit of a contradiction. Alb means white and Harap is typically a dark slave. So, it would be "white dark slave" or perhaps "white slave".

Once they reach the green kingdom, there is a big feast in their honor. The bald man slaps Harap Alb once and sends him to the stables to take care of his horse like he cares for his own eyes. At the table some outstanding salad is served. We find out it is stolen from the garden of the bear, which is a very dangerous place and only a certain forest keeper in the kingdom can get a bit of salad from there from time to time without losing his life. The bald man brags that Harap Alb will bring many salads and orders him to do so. The horse takes Harap Alb to the home of the beggar woman, who is actually Saint Sunday (Sfanta Duminica) and lives in a little mossy house on an island full of flowers. They ask her for help. She sends Harap Alb to sleep while she mixes some plants that make the bear sleep and puts it in his water together with honey and milk. She then advises Harap Alb to dress in the bear skin from his father picks as he picks a sack full of salad. When he leaves the bear wakes up, but Harap Alb throws him the bear skin while he runs away with the salad. They take leave from Saint Sunday and return to the green kingdom with the salads.

Next, the bald man is shown some very beautiful precious stones. We find out they come from a deer whose skin is covered in such stones. The deer is magical and can kill with one look. The emperor explains how much he pays for the stone, which are unique to his kingdown. The bald man sends Harap Alb to kill the deer and bring all the stones without touching on. He asks the horse for help. The horse takes him to Sfanta Duminica, again. She goes with him, and tell him to dig a hole, and behead the deer once he falls asleep.  Then he jumps in a hole and does not show his face until sunrise when the deer is dead -- even though the head of the deer begs to see him. He then takes the head and the skin of the deer to the bald man.

At the next party a bird comes over, and tells them they have not thought of the daughter of the red man. The bald man orders Harap Alb to bring her to the Green Kingdom to be his wife. Harap Alb leaves with the horse in full blast no longer hiding his power. On the way, he swims through water to avoid killing a colony of ants who cross a bridge and make a new home for some roaming bees. The queen of the ants and the queen of the bees each give him a wing and promise to come to help when he burns the wing. Further along the way he makes an array of friends with different abilities: Gerila, who is always cold and can freeze a room by blowing on it, Flamanzila, who could eat any amout an still be hungry, Setila, who can drink whole rivers and still be thirsty, Ochila, who sees everything everywhere, and Pasar-lati-lungila, who can extend himself to catch birds. He befriends all of them and takes them along when they suggest he will fail in his quest without them as companions. Once he gets to the red emperor he puts them to sleep in a metal room with fire underneath to burn them to ashes. Gerila freezes the room, and when the servants of the red emperor come, Harap Alb and his friends complain that no fire had been lit. Then they are given tons of food and wine and told they will be killed if they don't eat it. Flamanzila and Setila eat is all and say it's not enough for them. They have next to pick poppy seeds from sand, which is done by the ants when the wing is burned. Then they have to guard the daughter of the emperor, who turns into a bird and flies away. She is caught by the Ochila-Pasar-lati-lungila team. Lastly, Harap Alb has to know which girl is the daughter of the emperor. The queen bee solves this problem by buzzing on the right woman and making her defend herself.

The red emperor acknowledges he is beaten and hands his daughter over to Harap Alb with the condition that she agrees to go. The princess has one more quest: her magical morning dove and his horse have to compete in getting three slices of sweet apple, live water and dead water from where the mountain hit each other. The dove gets there first, but Harap Alb's horse compliments her, tells her that if he wins life will be good for all of them and quickly takes the sweet apple and water from her. The horse returns first and so the daughter of the Red emperor agrees to go with Harap Alb.

On the way back his friends leave him, and he remains with the princess and their horses. She also has a magical horse. When they reach the green kingdom, the bald man tries to take the princess in his arms. She pushes him away, and tells everyone he is the imposter and Harap Alb is the true nephew of the Green Emperor. The bald man immediately beheads Harap Alb because he thinks he betrayed him. The horse revenges his master. He picks up the bald man by the head and drops him to the ground until he is smashed in tiny pieces.

The story ends with the princess reviving Harap Alb with the dead water, the sweet apple slices and the sprinkles of live water. They marry and the emperor hands them his crown, and they invite everyone who helped them at their wedding -- including the story teller. I am unsure how they had any food or wine left with Setila and Flamanzila there or whether they froze to death because of Gerila, but the point of the story is to be kind and grateful.

I note that a summary of this story and of a few others was assigned as homework for the summer vacation. This is my mom's favorite story. Her grandmother used to tell it every night. I see in it more equality than in the other stories. When the prince hits the horse, the horse shows him exactly how dizzy and unpleasant it felt. The princess has a choice and makes her own quest. Harap Alb is not magical. He simply has a lot of friends with very different talents who help him in each of his quests, and whom he values.

Ion Creanga is the most famous Romanian story teller. Harap Alb is one of his best stories.

Struggling with or for Screen Addiction

Since the measures to protect us against COVID-19 started, I've started to be on YouTube more and more. I'd go from one video to another recommended one, and seldomly stop until I fall asleep. There are times when I've checked on the chicken or the dog and given them water or food, and I have even gone to the store to buy food for myself. OK, I buy ice-cream and don't eat much food nowadays beyond bread and butter and some forms of salami (some vegan, some not). I eat only what I like even when it makes me sick or when I get rashes due to allergies from the stuff and the majority of my time is spent online. In the last weeks I spent somewhere around 11 hours on YouTube a day.

So, what do I watch? The answer is nothing unusual yet nothing I can really be proud off. I want a new phone. So, I've been watching videos of the latest and the best phones -- like Google Pixel 4 and the Samsung Galaxy S20. I've watched all sorts of clips from random movies, e.g., Anchorman 2, Overload and many others, and a bunch of clips of people doing weird things like eating the world's largest slice of pizza and making cotton candy with a can. I've also gathered the money I found in the house and threatened grandma I'd buy my own new phone, but so far I have been afraid to do so....I even got my mother to promise she'd get me a new phone, but she said it will only happen if grandma and Ruxandra agree. And they don't want to agree. They want to make me do stuff. They want me to be good. And I want to be in charge of my own life even if at every opportunity I seem to mess things up. I do wash my own clothes, I can cook my own food (or I eat icecream) and I can finally sleep alone without being afraid of the dark even after watching horror movies.  I also want to be online almost all the time. I can't seem to help it. I find nothing else interesting to do. We have too many animals. I don't really care for them anymore. I am too old for them. And there is nothing else around that is even remotely interesting.

I have moments when I admit it's a problem, but most of the times I do not -- even though the extended screen use does give me headaches, and my back hurts. I answer back when Ruxandra or Grandma suggest something that might help. My lines are "Si ce daca nu vreau?" ("what if I don't want to"), "nu-mi pasa" ("I don't care"), "lasa-ma in pace" (leave-me alone) or "nu promit nimic" (I promise nothing; they need to appreciate that at least I am honest with them and myself here). It helps that I am bigger and stronger than they are and so they cannot make me do stuff I do not want to do. They have tried taking my phone and my computer away from me. OK, I offered the phone to grandma, but I did not think Ruxandra would actually take it to a place from where I could not get it back soon. It made me so mad I broke the car door, and a glass window; I did not get hurt, which is the first question dad asked when told of this mishap. Then I measured the window and gradma and Ruxandra made me buy the replacement window myself while nenea Gheorghe put it back in the door frame. All the repairs were around 400 lei, which grandma paid for. They deserved it because they've tried to take technology away from me.

I immediately found Edward's old phone, and I spent even more time online as a form of revenge -- against myself or against them. I no longer know. Then they gave my phone back and I averaged the 11 hours on youtube, again. So, Andy took it away from me. I no longer want to be with family. I just need to be online all the time and I have always found a way to go around them and their rules. Now my phone is in Chizatau, and I am in Lugoj. The computer is hidden in a place I could not find. But yesterday I found one of Ruxandra's old computers, and made it work. I understand electronics better than Ruxandra nowadays. There was a loose wire that I re-attached with my hot-glue gun because Edward had dropped the computer from the top of the closet. So, since yesterday afternoon, I've been spending all my time on the screen again -- only 7 hours yesterday because I only managed to fix the computer around noon, but I made up for it today by starting at 7 a.m.. Now, I feel grumpy and moody again.

When James was one, we had some friends who visited. There are no visitors now because of COVID-19. But then two of the children were teenagers, and the youngest was five. The latter was the only one not addicted to her phone because she did not yet have one. The older children, a boy and a girl (aged 13 and 15) whom I used to be great friends with  when we were younger, were on the screen all day long. Suddenly, we had nothing in common. Of course, growing up was partly at fault. What does an 11 year old have to do with teenagers? There is little in common. The summer was, however, sweltering hot, and their room was not a place one wanted to be in. Yet, they stayed in there all day. They did not find anything to do or to enjoy in a house full of animals and people. It did not help that my former friend was terribly afraid of chicken and would scream her head off when I brought one inside, which I did because it seemed fun at the time. I also remember explaining the dangers of screen addiction and how her back was hurting and bending because of lack of muscle, and because she spent all her day in bed on the screen. Her mom would find apologies for her saying it had to do with growing up and with becoming a woman. I am not a woman. But I am sure that being one and having breasts does nothing to help.

Today I look in the mirror and see my lousy position and my back bending. Yet I have too much pride and too little will to do anything about it. The addiction is just so strong and there is nothing else I find worthwhile. I am 13 and my room is a mess. There is food I left to rot in the kitchen with worms in it, balls from my toy guns are everywhere (inside and outside), and clothes and other crap.  I do wash my clothes and myself every day. My bed-sheet also goes in the wash often, but I never clean my room or the floors.  The neighbor brings me food to eat -- meat with potatoes and other stuff -- and I almost never eat it. Food lies in various stages of putrefaction throughout the house, and outside because the dog does not eat all of her food either and the whole place stinks. Because I am so moody and because it's cooler there, grandma is away with grandpa in Chizatau. Nenea Gheorghe is here -- working all day; he checks on the animals when he arrives and before he leaves -- and grandma comes often, but she is old and can no longer clean all the mess I make. When she is here, all she does is clean after me, and I sometimes help because I cannot be on the screen while she is watching me. Yet the moment she leaves, I am back on the screen. I want to be on the screen -- all the time. I don't want to be in Chizatau with her and Ruxandra. They do nothing that's interesting. There is nothing to do here or there.

I am not the only one who is addicted. The whole world spends too much time on their screens nowadays. And there are other things to be addicted to. Edward sits in the back garden at Chizatau reading. He is almost always hunched over a book. It's usually some novel he's read ten times before because Ruxandra refused to buy him more books. She said it's not healthy to do nothing else and that if he's read it before it should be easier to disentangle him from it because he knows the ending. Yet each day -- every day -- he reads before doing his chores or his homework or caring for the animals who often lack food and water until grandma and Ruxandra come by to care for them. Of course, I am no better, but I don't care and I don't want to care.

We used to go to judo every day, but it's inside. I did not have any back problems then and because we'd run a lot, I was the fastest among my classmates. Today judo seems like a life-time ago. Sports cannot be done with a mask on. So, there is little chance they'd be open this fall. Perhaps when school starts, there will be more to do. But will it start this fall? or will it be on Zoom? Otherwise, I just want to be left alone to be online.

Bedtime stories: Stories of Glorified Murder and Subservient Women?

One of my favorites is a Romanian fairy tale -- Minte Creata, Busuioc si Sucna Murga -- by Ion Pop-Reteganul. It is the story of three brothers famous in their neighborhood for their brave deeds. The names of the heroes are: "Minte Creata" (Curly Brain), "Busuioc" (Basil) and "Sucna Murga" (Morning dress -- sucna is a thick, straight woolen dress or skirt worn by women when doing work around the house). Their mother is a widow and they have no father to look after her/them. The naming scheme suggests the author has a hidden sense of humor -- like in "Princess Bride".

Each day the brothers have the same routine. The first brother returns home in the evening, eats and sleeps all night before leaving home again. The second returns at midnight, eats and sleeps until morning, while the youngest returns at sunrise, eats and sleeps a bit. Then they all leave home for more brave deeds. Sucna Murga is aware of everything that goes on because he is magical -- that's likely why he functions on so little sleep. Their bedtime habits are consistent with when they were born. Minte Creata was born in the evening, Busuioc at midnight and Sucna Murga just as the sun was rising. Neither seem to help their mother or do farm work or if they do, it is not mentioned. However, it says they are famous world-wide for their bravery -- perhaps like me and David in more than one regard.

When the emperor, who appears to be more like a village chief, wants to find a suitable husband for his only daughter, he sends word and material to their mother to sew a new white shirt and some underpants -- izmene. The underpants and shirt have to be ready by morning or they will all be beheaded. Then one of her sons has to dress in those clothes and retrieve the light of the sun and the key from heaven from the zmei -- a zmeu is a kind of powerful, rich, but ugly human with some superpowers. If they succeed, they will win the hand of the princess. Otherwise, the whole family will be beheaded. The first two brothers acknowledge they would be unable to do this. They say that if they are to die, they would rather die at home. They take a fatalist approach or one could say they are being lazy. They don't even want to try. Instead, they acknowledge that every person  dies at some point, and it may as well be now as later. Their mother, however, keeps sewing the underpants and the shirt after quickly cooking for them.  She believes in them and wants them to survive and succeed. She, however, no longer waits on them at the table and makes them wait on themselves as she is busy sewing for their lives and hers.

The youngest agrees to go on the emperor's quest, but, first, he calls his brothers to help. The oldest brother does not show up. He is not interested in discussing the matter -- even though all their lives are in danger, while the middle brother agrees to come with the condition that he will not be asked to do anything that is hard. This is the condition that David often places when he goes somewhere with us -- to not be asked to do anything, and if he really has to do something, it should be easy. So, it's good to see that even heroes in fairy tales have this sort of attitude. It makes me think more highly of David.

Sucna Murga promises he is only taking his brother, Busuioc, for company, and will not ask him to do anything that is difficult. As they travel, they first get to a magical valley that makes them sleep and never wake up. Sucna Murga drags Busuioc along and they manage not to fall asleep. Next, they reach a second magical valley where they are suddenly overburdened by love for the ones they left home and feel the urgent need to return. Sucna Murga barely gets Busuioc out of these valleys. Lastly, they get to a third valley with very beautiful flowers who tempt them to steal one. Sucna Murga knows not to take the flowers, but Busuioc picks a flower and hides it in his clothes. The whole valley then rings loudly -- like an alarm in the store. Sucna Murga first asks his brother to return the flower and when he refuses, he searches his brother until he finds the flower and returns it. The noise then stops and they travel further.

Eventually, they get to the domain of the zmei. Sucna Murga tells Busuioc he is keeping his word of not making him do anything hard. So, instead of taking him along now, he has him wait by the bridge between the domains for his return. The zmei are three brothers just like them, and Sucna Murga kills them one by one, and takes their horses and carts and leaves them with Busuioc. The last one is the strongest -- as strong as him -- and has the key of heaven and the light of the sun in his cart. There he manages to kill the zmeu with the help of ravens, which one imagines are the lawyers of modern time. The zmeu tries bribing them with the body of Sucna Murga, but Sucna Murga offers three bodies -- of the three zmei -- and the ravens are greedy. They do not appreciate quality meat -- Sucna Murga is younger and would be sweeter to eat. They want to win a lot. So, they help Sucna Murga and he keeps his word and shows them where all three bodies are.

Later he takes the horses and cart of the last zmeu to his brother and goes back to see how their wives plan revenge, which he manages to defeat because he hears their exact plans. The first one turns herself into a poisoned, hot well, which he cuts with his sword and it turns into blood. The second one into a beautiful rug, which he cuts in two and she bleeds to death. Each time Busuioc is upset and asks Sucna Murga how he could ruin the well and then such a beautiful rung, which he wanted to take home. The last one tries to swallow them, but he throws a heated mace into her mouth. It sticks to her mouth as her flesh melts and she lights on fire parts of the nearby forest as she dies. Then Sucna Murga and Busuioc return home. Sucna Murga is acclaimed for his bravery and marries the daughter of the emperor, and reigns justly for many years. Of course, the princess had no say in who she married as long as he managed to retrieve the key from heaven for her while wearing the underpants and white shirt. It just had to be somebody brave enough to rule the country for her. They now had servants to cook, make more white underpants and wait on the table. So, Sucna Murga would not need to take his mother along to worry over such chores.

In most Romanian stories, Fat Frumos (prince charming) kills the zmeu, a kind of rich human from 'the other world', and takes some of his possessions ... and lives happily ever after. He sometimes has brothers who try to take credit for his work, but, eventually, outwits them, too. In some stories he forgives them, and in some they die for having the presumption to take the credit, and for being silly. Sometimes they throw arrows straight up, and not understanding gravity, somehow the arrow falls back down and splits their head in two -- this is because they were guilty or so the story says -- while the arrow of Fat Frumos/Prince Charming/Praslea falls neatly near him. Oh, and it's always the youngest child who is the bravest and best. I am the oldest, and David is the oldest, too -- because we each have different parents -- David being my cousin. And then my younger brother, James, is only three. He can't outsmart any of us yet. Although, he tries to lead and thinks he is in charge more often than not.

This story ends in a slightly different way from others. One could say the ending is the best part in some ways. The author himself says he went to Sucna Murga's wedding. There he feasted on amazing food and took home a fried duck leg. On the way home he started eating the leg as it was very sweet and he was hungry, but then he met a learned man/scientist who was so very hungry/fript de foame (fried of hunger) that he begged for the duck leg so fervently that it was thrown at him. However, as he had his hands in his pockets, it hit him in the leg. Since then the man walks with a limp, which if we doubt the story, we can still observe today when we look at the particular scientist. Not much has changed in the way funding is awarded today -- we can still look for the limping learned men. We note that Ion Pop-Reteganul was born in the 1850s and died in the beginning of the 20th century.

Do children stories across the globe glorify murder? and subservient women? are they tales of prejudice, discrimination and cruelty that transcend centuries and cultures? Gretel cooks and keeps house for Hansel and the witch. Later Hansel and Gretel kill the witch and steal her possessions and ... live happily ever after. All of these are justified as a form of self-defense. The deeds are needed for survival. But was the witch really trying to eat them? or was she simply an old woman in social isolation who did not have family or friends to help her? She is not alive to tell her side of the story. We only have the version of her murders.

Disobedience is often punished by life-loss. Max and Moritz are baked by the baker, but survive because they are coated in dough and they chew their way through and run away. However, they are next caught and put through the mill by a farmer for making holes in his sacks of grain. The mill grinds them to pieces, and the miller feeds them to his geese. Nobody is sorry for the loss of life because they were disobedient, and did not learn to be kind or useful in a society that punishes cruelly and irrevocably.

The duck-leg through which Ion Pop-Reteganul describes funding for learned men certainly transcends centuries and cultures.

So is death life's ultimate lesson? COVID-19 is a disease that threatens to kill a small fraction of us -- mostly those with preexisting conditions -- and people are terribly afraid. Our leaders are greedy. They want to be in charge and have dictatorial powers. In order to gain absolute power they pretended to dismiss COVID-19 -- at first -- but manage to stay in power independent of lives lost and of mistakes made. They are those in charge of the ravens from the stories. They want to gain as much as possible and do not care of the consequences. Will we end up murdering each other for their entertainment? so far the reaction to the "Black Lives Matter" movement has claimed a relatively small number of lives, but will it be more? will we hate each other more and more until war erupts? will some of us be turned into zmei and others into prince charmings by the press? After all the Prince of England married an actress to help the Royal Family manage the press. Is the press leading us from one dramatic abyss to another just so that there is more to write about? doesn't the cost matter? in the civilized world that survives by taking from all the others, will it get to the point where there is not enough food for survival?