Monday, December 21, 2020

Germany: Greatest daily death toll in Europe?

Yesterday, Germany was 2nd only to America in the world ranking of daily deaths. If we take into account the size of their respective populations, yesterday Germany lost to Corona a slightly larger fraction of its people than America. The numbers appear to grow and the growth seems solid as the Christmas holidays are coming up.

The numbers will probably go down today as they tend to report fewer deaths during the weekend. Either fewer people die when they don't have to work or they test less.

There were only a few days when Italy lost more people. Both Italy and Germany have similar population sizes.

Overall, Germany has reported to its population, 3 times fewer deaths than America and 6 times fewer than New York.

New York appears to have achieved herd immunity by having nearly the entire population infected. In Germany, herd immunity is still far away, so the deaths will continue to climb -- but not for very long. The pandemic seems self limiting, like it happened in Italy, France and NY. Thus the numbers should start going down -- this time due to herd immunity and for good -- in January.

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