Romania: the terminally ill recorded as dying from coronavirus?

A young woman from Ialomita reports her grandfather died with a broken hip bone and a lung tumor at the age of 77. He was reported as dying from coronavirus, which she vehemently denies. He has bedridden since February and the coronavirus cannot be the cause of death in this case and likely in many other of the reported cases. She questions what's gained from counting so many terminally ill patients as coronavirus cases. Like her grandfather, she suspects many have not even been tested. 

Romania's dead from/with COVID-19: aquiring the virus in the hospital?

A Romanian newspaper has published a list of all the people who died of coronavirus along with a brief description of their pre-existing conditions.

https://www.gandul.ro/stiri/coronavirus-13-noi-decese-provocate-de-coronavirus-au-fost-confirmate-bilantul-a-ajuns-la-65-in-romania-val-de-decese-in-spitalul-groazei-din-suceava-19413463

As expected from other sources, and seen in other countries, we see that most patients had serious pre-existing conditions that would have placed serious limitations on their life expectancy. The average age of the coronavirus deaths isn't vastly below Romanian life expectancy, but, surely, average life expectancy is based on the general population who has fewer health ailments. 

The virus is now spreading through hospitals. Many of the people who died acquired the infection in hospital. We have a cluster of 13 deaths in the Suceava hospital, perhaps along with a few thousand infections. Ironically, one of the dead patients appears to have been hospitalized for plastic surgery. 

The situation clearly calls into question the role of hospitals, doctors and the entire health care system throughout this pandemic. 

On one hand, doctors save lives. There is no doubt about it. Most severely ill patients have a higher chance to live in the hospital than at home. 

In a situation like this, however, when more and more hospitals are going to be full of coronavirus, the positive impact of medicine has to be carefully weighted against the negative impact of hospital-caused infection. Today, that's coronavirus infection, but in general, hospitals are dangerous places. 

Even for coronavirus patients with mild symptoms, going to a hospital is likely to reduce life expectancy through stress and hospital-acquired infections, other than coronavirus. 

It seems like only the really bad cases benefit from medical intervention. 

We must also not forget that really sick patients, with limited life expectancy otherwise, will not be treated. In the patients where treatment is refused, the hospital again has a negative impact on life expectancy, as such a refusal can be stressful and psychologically difficult for the patient. 

World War III: Aftermath

While the current pandemic event is not unprecedented, the political reaction to it is extraordinary. At no other time in history have we seen so many countries in such a short time switch from civilian to military rule and take drastic action. At no other time, since World War II have we had so many countries under military command. It is true that viruses pose extraordinary threat to mankind. The Spanish Flu pandemic from 1918 killed more people than the First World War that was raging at the time. And this wasn’t the only one. We have had less deadly pandemics since and even more deadly ones prior.  

Even though this virus is not deadly enough to justify this kind of action, it is a reasonable military exercise to see if we can stop it. The answer is clear. We can’t. Even Boris Johnson can’t protect himself from the virus. The Royal Family isn’t safe either. The transmission rate is too fast. A lot of tests come back positive all over the world. The virus has a good hold of humanity and is here to stay.

Now, we’ve mobilized the armies, we’ve seen we can’t do much … what next? Will it end? How? When? 

In the meantime, we lose life in several ways
   1. When closing borders and important sectors like agriculture in the spring and summer in a over a quarter of the world, the impact will go beyond financial loss and loss of quality of life. There will be lives lost due to the measures. But it's beyond my ability to compute this kind of death rate. So, I will continue by discussing the more obvious loss of life.

  2. People who die either because of the virus or because they cannot receive proper treatment since the medical system is overwhelmed. In Italy, the average death of COVID-19 victims is close to 80.  Average life expectancy is 82. Thus, the average victim loses, perhaps 2 years. Perhaps less since the people with pre-existing conditions and lower life expectancy are more likely to die. Also, note that all victims who die with COVID-19 in their system are labeled as COVID-19 victims, whether the virus was the actual cause of death or not. Since hospitals are infected, and cannot be effectively cleaned or closed at this time, people who go to the hospital are likely to get  COVID-19 if they do not already have immunity to it and those with pre-existent conditions are more likely to die.

   3. The quarantine is life lost one day at a time. If we keep 1000 people locked up for a bit over one month, we have lost 100 years. If one in 1000 people die, and that life is cut short by only 2 years, the quarantine is the main cost. Donald Trump seems to understand this. The rest of the world does not.

But can we predict some of the aftermath beyond obvious life loss?

— There is unemployment and there will be more. The recession has already begun.
— Governments are printing more and more money without connecting the money to action. They cannot take action because everything is in lockdown. So, there will be devaluation, which means everyone will pay for the lockdown by losing their savings and it will go beyond that. There is no easy way out. Germany's finance minister committed suicide when trying to cope with the economic fallout of the coronavirus. The situation is serious, and will go beyond financial loss. 

— In this period, it is much easier than normal to escalate to a classic military conflict, using guns. 

— The travel restrictions and other acts appear to be more politically motivated than to do with the virus. The world seems to be turning into a second China. This is worrisome to say the least.

— The United States will probably try to keep the quarantine short and get America back to work. This will minimize both financial damage and overall loss of life. US states refused to impose full lock-down measures and New York city refused to enter full lock-down.

-- Sweden has gone back on its quarantine measures while training people who lost their jobs to become hospital workers.  IF they succeed in standing up to the rest of the world, these countries will fare better in the end.

-- In Europe, I hope the borders won’t last long and we’ll soon be free to travel again. A lot of the freedom that we gained with the EU has disappeared overnight. It is very important to regain this freedom. Travel restrictions between EU countries with similar levels of infection don’t make any sense. Yet, they are in place. 

-- Eastern Europe is doing the quarantine in a way that’s too expensive: too few lives saved for too much trouble. All work contracts have ended. In Romania, everybody is unemployed, locked up in their own homes, and paid by the state at 75% of their pay-check. They have closed every sector including agriculture, while explaining how nothing will come in, and local farms will support people.  Borders are closing completely as of this week. They may end up having no quarantine at the peak of the epidemic, when it would truly help OR they may end up being too expensive to be kept in Europe after the mess is over -- if there will be an European Union when this is over.

Some civil liberties are probably lost forever. Governments will have more easy access to persona data, travel patterns, etc. This is a serious limitation to personal freedom. It an be used in both good ways and bad ways. 

Some bubbles burst. Real estate, stock markets, etc. When a commodity is priced in a way not backed by reality, it might come back to its real value. Or, frequently, to less. 

We will shop more online. Some stores will close forever. We’ll learn online and do bureaucracy online. This digital transition is permanent. 

Some Airlines failed. There will be higher cost for air travel if things return to normal.

Real Estate markets will change worldwide. Prime London Property that comes with very little space and a near certainty to achieve early exposure to COVID-19 may lose some value. Countryside land and homes that offer more space might increase in value. Who wants to be stuck again in a very small flat? This is probably going to happen worldwide. 

Past wars have been followed by baby booms. In World War II, we’ve had more additional lives that started due to the war than lives that ended in the war. Yes, World War II produced more lives than it ended. The population increased faster than before — both during and after he war. 

Given that birth rates throughout most of the world are below replacement level, a baby boom would be a very welcomed thing. Since in most of Europe, population halves every two generations or faster, a baby boom would be most welcomed. There’s no better thing than children to replace the old dead. Let’s hope Italians understand. 

From Russia With Love, the military has come to the rescue in Italy. It’s a beautiful gesture. The Russians are sending doctors and equipment to Italy, when, in a very short time, their own medical system will collapse and they will need this stuff. They are doing it at the expense of their own people, but, haven’t they always done that? Politically, it’s a great move. And, perhaps, by the time the peak of the epidemic arrives in Russia, the Russians doctors would have been infected with COVID-19 in Italy and recovered already. Thus, they’d be immune and able to do away with the need for some of the protection equipment in Russia. 

-- China has developed tools and technology to fight this virus at home. They’ve scaled up production capabilities and they will come to the rescue of the rest of the world. Sure, it will come at a price. Some will be paid now and some later by recognizing China’s place in the world in a different way than before. Let's hope this recognition will not come at the price of turning the rest of the world or parts of it into a second China like the quarantine measures are doing and keeping it so.

— In the United States, the virus made the press stop writing about the impeachment of Donald Trump. His chances to get reelected are much higher than in times of peace. It would be amazing to see military hospitals from China, Russia and Cuba come to the rescue when the American medical system collapses. 

— Russia might increase its influence in the world. Moldova, Ukraine may drift further away from Europe and the annexation of Crimea will no longer be discussed. As Europe loses power, they might annex other countries as well including parts of Eastern Europe.

— The developing world will likely not be very much affected by the virus, but they will be affected by the lock-down measures and these will cost lives. India and Africa are used to disease — many diseases more deadly than COVID-19. An illness that only kills the old and frail will be easily dealt with.  Most people will die at home, without respirators and tests. 

Lessons from the past and thoughts on the future

My great-grandmother from my father's side, Smaranda, was a survivor of the Spanish flu from the Focsani area. Mandita, as everyone called her, was 22 at the time. She was among the oldest children in her family and remembered it well. The pandemic had a death rate of about 3%. Almost every household had their dead.  Both her parents died of the Spanish Flu -- a few days apart from each other -- leaving behind 11 children. The youngest was a baby -- her name was Emma.

A lot of soldiers died in that pandemic. She blamed it partly on the war and the co-morbid conditions it left behind. Yes, they were young, but many had lived for years in conditions worse than the world's homeless have today. They had suffered from hunger, cold and thirst. They lived in trenches soaked up to their knees in water and sewage together with the rats and lice. Many had survived typhoid fever and various other diseases, which left imprints even on those who had the strongest constitutions. The older people were home, and had a higher chance of surviving the flu than the young soldiers -- all clumped together and all recovering from war. Her parents were not part of the survivors -- perhaps the strain of having 11 children and of working hard to raise them healthy at the expense of their own health played a role. These were times when there, often, was not enough for everyone.

After their parents died, the siblings moved to Galati to start over and took everyone along. They built a bar/shop there, which helped them all survive the aftermath of the pandemic. They lived because the economy moved on. Emma grew up and married a colonel in the Romanian army, who was later discriminated against by the communists. Then, she and her husband moved back with Mandita, who, throughout her life, continued to help the siblings in need. I was born towards the end of Mandita's life, and her last words were that she was glad her mother's name was passed on to me. Her name had been Ruxandra.

The flu did not stop the war -- the war stopped when the Xis and Putins and other leaders of the time agreed on new borders. Even during the pandemic, people continued to fight for freedom and dreamed of a time when their opinions mattered -- when there will be democracy.  In 1918, my great-grandfather from my mother's side was in prison. They first imprisoned my great-grandmother, Ana. Every day they would kill somebody from her village in front of her and let their blood run at her feet. Then they'd ask Ana "Tell us where he is!", and she'd answer "How, should I, a poor woman, know. He never tells me where he goes". He had been in a hidden attic of their home were she was taking him food. But once she was returned home, he gave himself up because he could not suffer the thought of having others die because of him. He was then imprisoned for more than a year in the cold together with other educated minds of the time who had favored the creation of Romania on a ship on the Danube river, and every day one of them would be shot in front of the others as they were told "another one of you will follow the next day, until you all perish". He did not die from the flu, and was eventually released -- many months after Romania formed. However, on that ship, he developed tuberculosis, which takes longer to kill. He returned home, and lived till 1928. This extra time allowed him to send his boys to school. My grandfather went to Berlin to study engineering -- he and his brothers left home in the years that followed to study in various corners of the world:  Teodor studied law in Paris, Ghedeon started by studying marine engineering in Livorno, and later switched to law and joined Teodor in Paris, and Mircea studied religion in Monaco. I still have some of the books they used to study from -- most of them, once the communism came, were used to light various fires by uneducated minds who hated education and all that it stood for. I also have some of my great-grandfather's notes from that time, but they were written in Hungarian and, unfortunately, I cannot read the language well enough to understand their meaning. His wife, Ana lived to 94 -- through both world wars and most of communism -- she frequently talked about their fight for freedom (first with her husband, and later with her children), decried communism, and hoped and prayed that future generations will be free. 

Today, we have given up the freedom that so many generations had fought for in over a quarter of the world in the name of a virus. This is the most documented pandemic the world has ever known. Yet, these decisions of giving up all freedom everywhere are unprecedented. They are, supposedly, based on apparent mortality rates, which are known to be wrong and on the idea that this halt will stop the virus from spreading, when it has already been shown it has a good grip on the population based on the large number of positive tests everywhere. We also know that, so far, the average age of those who died is within a few years of the life-expectancy of the countries they lived in. In spite of all this, all leaders from around the world have been given absolute power over their country and over their people in the hope that they will stop this pandemic without, of course, proving they had a plan -- other than stating that these measures will continue and become stricter "as needed" -- they first mentioned a few weeks, and now it might be a few months or longer. The stricter the measures, the more we vehemently applaud. In the same time, we acknowledge that, in times of peace, we would not have voted for most of these people to continue on. Nevertheless, we all wholeheartedly believe that all these leaders will give up this new-found power as soon as they are told to by scientists whom they have never listened to before -- in times of peace or war. Why have they never listened? because of their thirst for power, which they now have.

I am not a politician, and not even a "true" scientists any more. I am a woman and mother of three boys, who tell me Snow White is stupid -- how could she have not seen through the disguises of her step-mother? and not, once, but three times. They don't believe the latest version of the story where Snow lives happily ever after with the prince. They think 'in real life' she must have died and she deserved to do so for being so obviously wrong. Indeed, if one looks at versions of this story (and of most other bedtime stories), the earlier versions, do not have the happy ending. We fervently believe in happy endings today.

In the past, those who enforced measures who directly led to widespread death and destruction were part of "the ax" and those who applauded these measures were called "coada de topor" ("the tail of the ax";  those of you who have split wood know that an  ax cannot function well without a fairly long tail). Today, I cannot help, but wonder, are most people in the world part of such an ax tail? driven on by the media? I do not know the answer to these questions. Most of my educated friends think I am insane for being worried and faithfully believe everything will return to normal, and will be over soon -- yet, I am worried. Economies from over a quarter of the world  ground to a halt in exchange for promises of success in halting the pandemic. The various leaders have absolute power and no plan beyond stricter and stricter measures.  I see unprecedented loss of freedom, and predictions of hunger, theft and unprecedented problems from those who lived through life. So, yes, I worry that I am right and that they are right, and that this is the beginning of a tragedy that knows no bounds.

I have visions of my children and all my nieces and nephews and their children -- those who make it through this and some will because they are many and they are all over the world -- blaming me and telling me "how could you have had everything and given it all up? how could you be this stupid to give up our future for a bunch of lies? we thought nobody could be worse than Snow White, until we were old enough to understand what you and your generation did, how could you?" In the position I am in, all I can do is stay home, take care of my children, and my father, and write on my blog when they sleep -- and they slept late today. So, I am doing this, and then I will get up, and dress, and with help from my mother get through another day of caring for the children, their pets and for my father. She got up at five, went to bed past midnight, and is way ahead of me at doing real work. I simply wanted to explain my reasoning to my applauding friends who worry less and believe more.