Wednesday, March 2, 2022

Will the nightmare end?

All news sites are full of the destruction and loss of life in Ukraine. We see young men, women and children die for no reason. Some are Russian. Some are Ukrainean. Some are Russian of Ukrainean origin. Some are Ukrainean of Russian origin. Outside Ukraine everyone is very agressive verbally. They want to manufacture weapons in Europe again. Countries bordering Ukraine (e.g., Romania, Poland, Lithuania) have NATO boots on the ground. Why would they waste money on weapons and troops if they wanted to stop? Politicians sanction Russia (and Belarus), and they target some of the assets of some of the oligarchs -- a very selective number-- in hopes that they could help end the war or so they say. Will the war end when it has just begun? They keep saying everything is unprecedented, but is it? Haven't both the rich and the poor lost everything in past wars? And everyone blames Putin. He is the one man who is responsible for all the aggression, but is he? is Biden responsible for everything in the US? Was Trump just as responsible even though his sentences did not make sense and did not add up?

Then there is the dream. Most people, me included, would like the war to end, and would like Putin to vanish and to see "his" Russia be replaced by a democratic Russia that ultimately joins NATO and the EU. Ukraine would join first, but the rest of the countries from former USSR would follow. And if China continues to expand, the same measures that worked with Russia will apply. Then Xi would disappear and there'd be a democratic China, and all countries would work together to defeat evils like cancer and climate change. Eventually peace and oder would stretch to Africa and the Middle East. But is this dream possible? or will it turn into a nightmare yet again? Will the nightmare from Ukraine extend?

Will targeting people with loads of money work? maybe. On average, people with money are more influencial than those without. When one does not pay their obligations and is in debt, but has money to cover what they are not paying, their assets, e.g., their cars, their bank accounts, their yachts and private jets, are blocked or frozen. Then they get scared and pay up. They say everything has a price: the life of a person, the outcome of an election or the change of a regime cost different amounts but can be bought if one goes about them in the right way. While none of these people might be able to end a war on their own (or so they say) even though they are very rich, colectively they might find a solution if they are pushed to care or at least not oppose a solution when it appears. Of course, looking at them -- a bunch old, overweight and visibly ill men -- they look more like toys being taken out of business by others like them and eventually by a younger, more modern generation than as tools that bring an end to the war. I was hopeful at first, but now I am less sure we are safe or will be safe.

Instinctively, I oppose aggression and I agree with the pope. I don't believe our politicians are correct in patting themselves on the back. They are not stronger than ever, and neither are their alliances. They have failed! and they keep failing as long as war rages on! In a country in Europe people are suddenly killing each other. Bombs fall and kill and maim and destroy. And it's convenient to have Putin. He can be blamed for everything. Suddenly Boris Johnson looks good and Emmanuel Macron even better. Biden looked weak after Afganistan, but now he is the leader of the free world. I've always thought that sanctions are like applying austerity measures when the economy fails. They answer aggresion with more aggression, and cause an exacerbation in ostilities. Ideally, one proposes solutions from which both parties would gain, and then they never go to war.

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