Saturday, April 3, 2021

Romania vs. Hungary: Factor of 2?

I should probably note that striking similarity in the excess mortality curves between neighbouring countries Romania and Hungary.

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

The surprise comes from the fact that the Covid-19 mortality in Hungary is second highest in the world, at 0.223%, while in neighboring Romania is apparently only half, at 0.125%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Despite Covid apparently killing twice as many Hungarians as it kills Romanians, when looking at overall excess mortality, the curves are shockingly similar.

Romanians and Hungarians aren't sufficiently different to justify a difference of a factor of 2 in Covid-19 lethality or incidence (Romania has 50 000 positives in one million whereas Hungary claims 70 000. Both numbers are, in my view, underestimated by a factor of 10, with huge uncertainty on top. ).

No comments:

Post a Comment