In Previous posts, I've addressed the topic of lives lost vs lifetime lost, and argued the largest loss from these lockdown measures is the time we lose by wasting it and not the years we'll never live because we die of Corona.
Now I will put forward a few mechanisms through which the lockdowns actually increase the number of COVID-19 deaths. This is counterintuitive, as we like to believe the opposite -- i.e., that the sacrifices we make, like social distancing and lockdowns are saving lives.
There is an increased aparent COVID-19 death through-out Europe. But does it mean that more people die?
Well, no, not necessarirly. More deaths of people carrying the COVID-19 virus do not mean more excess deaths. The best example to illustrate this is Hungary, where COVID-19 mortality is at all times high, but, overall, there are fewer dead people every day, compared to one year ago, when there was no COVID. So, there is no excess mortality in this wave in Hungary. This means that the COVID-19 deaths fit in the noise -- there are fewer deaths in Hungary than usual during this COVID wave.
I will put forward three mechanisms through which lockdown increased the number of COVID-19 deaths:
1) Avoiding the virus in summer means Eastern Europe entered the winter with a population that wasn't infected and had little immunity. When, in winter, it was impossible to contain the virus, it spread through the entire population faster, overwhelming hospitals and causing more deaths than it would have done in summer.
Eastern Europe had a successful lockdown last summer. I have then said that it was a bad idea to stop the virus from spreading through the population in the summer, when mortality is low, it doesn't spread very much and severity of respiratory illnesses isn't too bad.
The best examples for this failure mode are Czechia, Hungary, Montenegro and a few other countries.
2) Lockdown has caused a decreasse in all other respiratory illnesses -- colds and flu -- that are, in many ways, similar to COVID-19.
This increases the real and apparent COVID-19 mortality in 2 way:
There are three other coronaviruses similar to COVID-19 that are endemic in the human population and cause common colds. Infection with these viruses confers a degree of immunity against COVID-19. This immunity isn't perfect and won't work for everyone, but it appears to be there.
The old coronaviruses were endemic and circulating. Thus, there was a good level of immunity against them in the general population and was suppressed by lockdown measures.
Having a longer time since the last infection with one of these coronaviruses means a lower level of immunity and a higher chance to develop severe illness and, perhaps die of COVID.
The absence of regular colds and flu this winter season means a lot of people who would normally have been killed by the regular cold and flu are still alive and they meet COVID-19. COVID-19 is a stronger killer, and is more likely to kill them, especially in light of the inexistent and deficient medical care. However, people would have died anyway, will not cause excess mortality or increase the total mortality.
3) Work and school online has kept people in front of screens and away from family and friends, and from physical activity. People eat more, buy more and are more depressed than ever. Obesity is one factor than increases the probabily of death if the person is infected with COVID-19. Overall, people who are a depressed and stay inside have lower immunity than people who exercise and go about their daily lives.
Certainly, the lockdown could also have a good effect. Many people are now vaccinated, and they will no longer catch the virus. For those people, if they did not catch the virus, and vaccinated instead, it helped.
About half of the German population hasn't been infected, but only 10% are vaccinated. Thus, there are many people to feed the current wave.
The situation isn't much better in the rest of Europe.
Israel does appear to have vaccinated enough people to stop the pandemic.
In the UK, enough people have been infected to also bring it to an end. Sure. Vaccines helped, but the majority of British immunity is still from infection.
India is a good example of avoiding COVID-19 mortality without the vaccine and through
-- recent past infection with the old coronaviruses
-- the presence of other deadly infections that 'harvest' the people who are ready to die before COVID-19 can get to them.
https://www.worldometers.info/
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
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