COVID-19 mortality: the 0.2% revisited -- yet again

One of my key predictions that I first made about one year ago was that the mortality rate for the Covid-19 infection is in the region of 0.2%.

This would make the current pandemic comparable to the flu epidemics of 1957 and 1968 and about 10 times less deadly than the Spanish flu of 1918.

According to Worldometers, the 0.2% mortality rate was exceeded in 2 micro nations:
— The Rock of Gibraltar — 0.25%
— The village of San Marino — 0.2%

Of normal size countries, the top currently looks as follows
— Belgium — 0.18%
— Slovenia — 0.17%
— UK — 0.16%
— Czechia 0.16%
— Italy — 0.15%
— Bosnia — 0.15%
— US — 0.14%
— Portugal — 0.14%
— North Macedonia — 0.14%
— Hungary — 0.14%
— Bulgaria — 0.13%
— Montenegro — 0.13%
— Spain — 0.13%
— Mexico — 0.13%
— Peru — 0.13%
— Croatia — 0.13%
— Panama — 0.13%
— France — 0.12%
— Sweden — 0.12%
— Switzerland — 0.11%
— Lithuania — 0.11%
— Columbia — 0.11%
— Brazil — 0.11%
— Argentina — 0.10%
— Poland — 0.10%
— Romania — 0.10%
— Chile — 0.10%
— Slovakia — 0.10%

All other countries (excluding the micro nation of Andorra) are under 0.1% mortality officially recorded.

We should note the relatively small difference between countries that adopted difference strategies. Sweden didn’t impose a lockdown and sits comfortably between France and Switzerland, who both did.

Countries like Czechia, Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Montenegro that were successful in containing the first wave and had almost no deaths in spring now find themselves close to the top. This suggests the limiting factor is herd immunity and not containment. The epidemic wave stops when the virus has infected most people, killing a comparable fraction of the population everywhere.

About one year ago, based on very limited data coming from China and Europe, I have predicted this number to be 0.2%.

Looking at the world today, we see this number exceeded in many regions. As these are not whole countries, some will be missing. Thus, the list below isn’t complete.

First most extreme deviations from the 0.2% mortality occurred in relatively small population groups. The smaller the group, the more the results of a measurement can deviate from average. There, just a few random deaths can skew the statistics. They may also be places with lots of elderly people or places where people are more likely to be poor, uninsured and overweight. Such groups are known to have a higher mortality rate.

Some excess mortality in places like NY can be due to a second wave of infection. Indeed, Covid-19 can infect people more than once. While a second infections are generally less deadly than the first, the way we count Covod-19 deaths means we’ll register a rather large number just due to the passage of time. About 0.1% of us die every month. (the average lifetime is roughly 1000 months — think 100 years at 10 months a year.) Thus, if COVD causes no deaths but lasts one month, it will pick up a 0.1% mortality rate among the infected population.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/europe/united-kingdom-coronavirus-cases.html

In England,

Southend-on-Sea — 0.302%
Blackpool — 0.276%
Bedford — 0.269%
Hartlepool — 0.262%
Medway — 0.261%
Thurrock — 0.257%
Stoke-on-Trent — 0.253%
Essex — 0.248%
East Sussex —0.248%
Kent — 0.247%
Staffordshire — 0.245%
Blackburn with Darwen — 0.245%
Derby — 0.241%
South Yorkshire — 0.234%
Merseyside — 0.229%
Cheshire and Chester — 0.228%
Greater Manchester — 0.226%
Middlesbrough — 0.225%
Lancashire — 0.224%
West Midlands — 0.223%
Kingston upon Hull — 0.222%
County Durham — 0.221%
Stockton-on-Tees — 0.217%
Cumbria — 0.216%
Warrington — 0.216%
Darlington — 0.214%
Luton — 0.214%
Derbyshire — 0.208%
Central Bedfordshire — 0.199%

Overall, about 42% of the deaths the occurred in England were in regions with overall mortality rate exceeding 0.2%.

In the US, there are currently 7 states where deaths surpassed 0.2% of the population. 20% of the US fatalities occurred in these states and 13% of the American population lives there.

New Jersey — 0.248%
New York — 0.228%
Massachusetts — 0.218%
Mississippi — 0.211%
Rhode Island — 0.209%
South Dakota — 0.204%
Connecticut — 0.202%

In NY City, the mortality was 0.328%

In Mississippi, Neshoba County lost 0.563% of its population to Covid-19
Five other counties are between 0.4 and 0.5%
13 counties are between 0.3% and 0.4%
40 counties between 0.2 and 0.3%
23 counties between 0.1% and 0.2%
No Mississippi county below 0.1%.

In South Dakota, there are a few sparsely populated places with extremely high mortality rates — the following list only includes those over 0.5%.
Total Deaths Mortality Rate
Jerauld — 16 — 0.795%
Buffalo — 13 — 0.663%
Gregory — 27 — 0.645%
Hamlin — 38 — 0.616%
Turner — 50 — 0.596%
Faulk — 13 — 0.565%
Aurora — 15 — 0.545%
Grant — 37 — 0.525%
Day — 28 — 0.516%

Louisiana has 3 counties over 0.5% and one more over 0.4%.

East Feliciana — 103 — 0.538%
Bienville — 68 — 0.514%
Franklin — 100 — 0.500%
Red River — 34 — 0.403%

In Arizona, two counties with large indian population were the hardest hit.
Apache › 326 — 0.453%
Navajo › 449 — 0.405%

North Dakota was a bit like South Dakota. Some counties were over three times the state average of 0.191% mortality.

Dickey › 32 — 0.657%
Pierce › 24 — 0.604%
Foster › 19 — 0.592%
Renville › 13 — 0.559%
Towner › 11 — 0.503%

In New Mexico, McKinley County — predominantly rural and Indian had over 3 times the state mortality rate of 0.162%.

McKinley — 421 — 0.590%
Sierra — 43 — 0.398%
Colfax — 45 — 0.377%
Cibola — 100 — 0.375%
San Juan — 400 — 0.323%

In Iowa, again small rural places appear hard hit, and well above the state 0.162 mortality.

I once bought a pretty little house in Ontonagon, Michigan for $300. It wasn’t a good investment, despite being real. I also bought, from the government, a nice piece of land at Lake Gogebic, which proved to have fake papers and not exist at all. Interesting to see both counties rank among the deadliest places in the State.
Michigan — 15,843 — 0.159%
Iron — 48 — 0.434%
Baraga — 32 — 0.390%
Ontonagon — 19 — 0.332%
Gogebic — 45 — 0.322%

Tennessee › 10,370 — 0.152%
Pickett › 21 — 0.416%

Gove County in Kansas tops the chart at 0.835% Corona mortality

Kansas — 4,101 — 0.141%
Gove — 22 — 0.835%
Ness — 15 — 0.545%
Comanche — 9 — 0.529%
Norton — 27 — 0.504%
Nemaha — 50 — 0.489%

Georgia has a fair few places over 0.4%
Georgia › 14,642 — 0.138%
Hancock › 55 — 0.650%
Wilcox › 43 — 0.498%
Randolph › 31 — 0.457%
Candler › 49 — 0.454%
Jenkins › 38 — 0.438%
Glascock › 13 — 0.438%
Terrell › 37 — 0.434%
Dodge › 89 — 0.432%
Early › 44 — 0.432% Johnson › 40 — 0.415%
Ben Hill › 67 — 0.401%

In Texas, we only bother with the places over 0.5%,
– Texas › 39,490 — 0.136%
Foard › 7 — 0.606%
Lamb › 78 — 0.605%
Motley › 7 — 0.583%
Dawson › 66 — 0.519%
Floyd › 29 — 0.508%
Cottle › 7 — 0.501%

Florida › 27,695 — 0.129%
Union › 70 — 0.459%

Montana › 1,315 — 0.123%
Big Horn › 68 — 0.511%
Rosebud › 44 — 0.492%
Roosevelt › 52 — 0.473%
Daniels › 7 — 0.414%

Wisconsin › 6,617 — 0.114%
Iron › 37 — 0.651%

Minnesota › 6,367 — 0.113%
Kittson › 21 — 0.489%

California › 44,152 — 0.112%
Imperial › 559 — 0.308%
Los Angeles › 18,044 — 0.180%

Kentucky › 4,224 — 0.095%
Robertson › 12 — 0.569%
Monroe › 36 — 0.338%

Virginia › 6,778 — 0.079%
Emporia › 35 — 0.655%
Galax › 41 — 0.646%

Utah › 1,736 — 0.054%
San Juan › 36 — 0.235%

Oregon › 2,034 — 0.048%
Malheur › 56 — 0.183%

Once upon a time, I bought a great piece of land on the bottom of lake Malheur and one more in nearby Callow Valley! These again prove to be the deadliest places in Oregon.

… and yet, most people dying are close to death. In 11 states, over half of the deaths occur in nursing homes, which is sad because these people are vulnerable, but the nursing homes are the last stop before death. Nursing home residents are people with little left to do in life other than die -- until we figure out a way to reverse aging.

Brazil’s Deadliest
Amazonas — 9,003 — 0.222%
Rio de Janeiro — 30,597 — 0.179%
Roraima — 896 — 0.158%
Distrito Federal — 4,618 — 0.156%
Mato Grosso — 5,223 — 0.153%
Espírito Santo — 5,995 — 0.152%

Mexico’s deadliest

Mexico City — 23,786 — 267
Baja California — 6,983 — 211
Sonora — 5,517 — 194
Coahuila — 5,383 — 182
Spain
TOTAL DEATHS PER 100,000 — DAILY AVG. — IN LAST 7 DAYS PER 100,000
Castilla La Mancha
5,089 —250 — 61.6 — 3.02
Castilla y León
5,868 — 244 — 30.0 — 1.25
Aragón
3,058 — 231— 14.6 —1.10
La Rioja
679 — 216 — 4.1 — 1.32
Madrid
12,924 — 193 — 36.4 — 0.54
Navarra
1,057 — 162 — 2.3 — 0.35
País Vasco
3,454 — 158 — 17.7— 0.81
Asturias
1,607 — 158 — 11.9 — 1.16
Extremadura
1,593 — 150 — 17.9 — 1.68
Cataluña
9,624 — 126 — 17.0 — 0.22
C. Valenciana
5,426 — 109 — 95.7 — 1.91
Murcia
1,243 — 83 — 19.6 — 1.31
Andalucía
6,937 — 82 — 71.0 — 0.84
Cantabria
473 — 81 — 1.7 — 0.29
Galicia
1,950 — 72 — 26.9 — 1.00
Baleares
631 — 53 — 6.4 — 0.54
Canarias
549 — 25 — 2.6 — 0.12
Melilla
58 — 0.4 —
Ceuta
75 — 0.4 —

TOTAL DEATHS PER 100,000 — DAILY AVG. — IN LAST 7 DAYS PER 100,000
+
Grand Est
7,469 — 133 — 34.9 — 0.62
+
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté
3,488 — 122 — 20.1 — 0.70
+
Île-de-France
13,802 — 112 — 49.7 — 0.41
+
Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
8,363 — 102 — 35.7 — 0.44
+
Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur
4,936 — 98 — 47.7 — 0.94
+
Hauts-de-France
5,576 — 92 — 34.6 — 0.57
+
Centre-Val de Loire
1,760 — 67 — 10.9 — 0.42
+
Normandie
2,008 — 60 — 15.4 — 0.46
+
Pays de la Loire
1,827 — 47 — 12.3 — 0.32
+
Occitanie
2,813 — 47 — 24.7 — 0.41
Guadeloupe
171 — 43 — 0.1 — 0.04
+
Nouvelle-Aquitaine
2,457 — 40 — 21.6 — 0.35
+
Corse
131 — 39 — 0.7 — 0.21
+
Bretagne
986 — 29 — 9.1 — 0.27
Guyane
76 — 28 — 0.3 — 0.10
Mayotte
50 — 20 — 0.3 — 0.12
Martinique
45 — 12 — —
La Réunion
56 —7 — 0.1 — 0.02
Saint-Barthélemy
— — — —
Saint-Martin
— — — —

In Both France and Spain, tropical islands did particularly well. Corsica, the Canary island and Martinique had very low death rates, despite the virus getting there.

Historically, these places didn’t have too many colds as well.