To teach or not to teach -- in person?

 Students at all levels consider online teaching to be sub-par education. This is especially true in the US, where education is so expensive. I happen to agree with the students. We already have a problem in that people of all ages spend too much time online, and the COVID-19 rules have exacerbated this problem. I see this with David first hand -- who can no longer be separated from his phone. The most important part of the college experience and of school is social interaction. The networks one builds and the friends one makes play an important role not only in how we make use of the knowledge acquired, but also in motivating us to acquire the aforesaid knowledge in the first place. Teenagers particularly seem to need their peers in order to study since it's an age when they no longer listen to their family. This being said, online teaching is a tool just like books are tools, and the COVID-19 environment offers us an opportunity to perfect this tool.

What about heath risks? How deadly is COVID-19?

The highest death rate in the world was in NY and NJ. There the COVID-19 deaths reported per million was close to or slightly over 1700, which imply a death rate 0.17% -- slightly under Mihai's 0.2% estimate from early data of the pandemic. Mihai did a more careful estimate, and ended up with similar numbers within a factor of 2. The number of new deaths in these states is close to zero today -- they have flattened the curve. If Mihai's estimate is correct, this would be because a form of herd immunity has been reached in populated areas of NY and NJ, where a second wave is not expected. Other states, however, have catching up to do. Of course, the numbers will vary based on factors such as population distribution, its poverty, and heath, and likely on the weather, too. Air conditioning systems play a primary role in transmissions in states such as CA and AZ.

Anyhow, if all states are to reach the NY and NJ death rate, more will die -- and we will see that if the counting continues. Of course, if the death rate is higher, things will be worse everywhere.

In the US the number of cases are roughly 10000/million, which is about 1%. The number of deaths so far are 400 per million, which is 0.04% -- a factor of 5 off from Mihai's 0.2%. If 4 to 5 times more people have to die, that is scary. The hope is that they missed many asymptomatic carriers. They would have to have missed 60 times the number of cases for moderate safety from COVID-19. This is not impossible since it seems that over 80% of people are asymptomatic. However, most predict a second wave is expected in the fall.

Can we create a safe environment? e.g., put the professor behind a plastic screen like we do with those who sell in stores, make the groups of students smaller to maintain some form of distancing, and so on. 

I would say this is not realistic -- just like it's not realistic to maintain spacing in flights. If one thinks of first and second year classes, where there are hundreds of students, the proposal is to split the students in smaller groups. This means much more teaching in the same room, which cannot effectively be cleaned. Teaching many times in a row is tiring, and it's unclear the chances of getting sick would be smaller than teaching once in front of a larger group of people. On the other hand, splitting students in smaller groups results in more attention to each individual, which is good for the student. It's, however, a question of having enough professors to do this effectively without overworking them.

The average age of a full professor is 55 in the US. This puts them in the higher risk zone. While many are healthier than the average US population, the risk is still there. Andy said that the director/dean who forces professors to go back to teaching should attend every funeral personally. I hope it won't come to that. Also, note that while professors are mostly old, and some have pre-existent conditions, not all who teach are full professors -- many are not.

Given the correlation between age and mortality, perhaps a solution would be to have the teaching in person done by those who are younger, and can meet with multiple groups of students without getting sick.

 

Is education an essential service? Well... it was seen so in WWI and WWII. Independent of how many bombs fell, and of what happened politically, schools continued to teach.

Should education continue during a pandemic independent of the price paid? It's hard to say. NYC kept schools open during the 1918 pandemic. They said it kept children off the streets. Now, school keeps children off their phone IF done in person. The children who spend a lot of time on their phone are absent and cannot see around themselves anymore. This zombie child/young person of the 21st century is more scary to me than the pandemic itself. Young people should have goals and should want to do things, and somehow the various mobile devices are more often robbing them of a future instead of enabling one. Of course, the phone is tool as is the computer -- tools that are being misused.

What about Romania?

Romania has had 20-30 recorded deaths a day at the peak of the pandemic. The average number who die daily is 800 due to all causes. While there is a second peak, so far the numbers are small, and well within the ability of the system to handle them. For example, Odobescu and Bega -- the two major state hospitals that specialize in Obstetrics and Gynecology in Timisoara -- have split work: Odobescu handles the cases with negative COVID-19 results and Bega handles the ones with positive COVID-19 results. So far I've been told the number of births Bega handled has been zero.

Most things have opened -- not schools because it's summer -- but I hope the relaxation will continue. As of today, it seems that quarantine is no longer enforced and even people with a positive COVID-19 test can go home after signing a form that they have conditions to isolate, but that it is now a recommendation and since it's not a law it can no longer be enforced. Since we had very few cases we could afford to hospitalize every one of them. However, Germany and other countries in Western Europe have only hospitalized cases that needed treatment. So, it may be that there won't be many repercussions from Romania finally taking the same approach.

Most of Eastern Europe is in a similar situation with relatively low numbers of COVID-19 deaths, and secondary peaks occurring. These are peaks in the noise relative to what happened in most of Western Europe or America.