I have estimated the mortality of the Coronavirus to be about 0.2%. That
estimate was published on this blog in mid-March and, later, in the book COVID-19: Observations from a World Upside-down.
Today, I will look at the data in NY — currently, the most severely affected place in the world — and see how my 0.2% estimate holds.
Surely, if the mortality is vastly higher, say, like 2 or 3%, there would be a place, somewhere in the world, where management is bad enough for this number to be reached. Somewhere, there would be a country or state or county of say 10, 000 people or more where everyone has been infected and 1, 2 or 3% of the people have died. So far, we don’t see that.
Unfortunately, as of today, antibody tests are still not sufficiently reliable to see through the haze and resolve the truth in this maze.
The Heinsberg study in Germany pointed to a mortality rate of 0.37%, which is close enough to my 0.2% estimate. Yes, almost twice, but the uncertainty in these estimates exceeds a factor of 2.
The Santa Clara study in California pointed to a much lower mortality rate — about 0.1%, but it’s a sunny place and the study may have been plagued by false positives.
An antibody study in Madrid put the mortality rate at 1.14%, which suggests that only 10-14% of the population in and around Madrid would have antibodies. If my 0.2% estimate is correct, the number of immune people would be 5 times higher.
In NY, the highest mortality rate was in Bronx — 0.3%. In nearby Manhattan, the mortality is only half that. Naturally, one asks why. The answer appears to lie in the demographics.
Manhattan Demographics.
The racial composition of Manhattan is:
White: 58.9%
Non-Hispanic White: 50.7%
Asian: 10.3%
Black or African American: 15.5%
The racial composition in Bronx is:
White: 40.8%
Non-Hispanic White: 10.5%
Asian: 4.2%
Black or African American: 43.3%
Therefore, Manhattan has 5 times more non-Hispanic whites than Bronx.
Bronx has 3 times more Africans than Manhattan.
Manhattan has 5 times more non-Hispanic whites than Bronx. Bronx has 3 times more Africans than Manhattan. People in Bronx are more likely to be black, Hispanic, obese and poor. People in Manhattan are more likely to be white and rich. In the US, there is a correlation between obesity and poverty because poor people cannot afford vegetables and other high quality food, and obesity is one of the pre-existent conditions that increases the likelihood of complications and deaths for COVID-19 patients.
Conclusion: The number of COVID-19 reported deaths in NY dropped from a peak of almost 800 a day in April to around 100 a day today, and appears to continue to decrease. So, it seems that this wave is almost over in NY and that the death rate there will stay around my 0.2% estimate. Locally, it varies primarily due to demographics, but the variations are under a factor of 2. If my estimate is correct, NY will have reached herd immunity, and not see a second deadly wave of COVID-19 in the fall.
Today, I will look at the data in NY — currently, the most severely affected place in the world — and see how my 0.2% estimate holds.
Surely, if the mortality is vastly higher, say, like 2 or 3%, there would be a place, somewhere in the world, where management is bad enough for this number to be reached. Somewhere, there would be a country or state or county of say 10, 000 people or more where everyone has been infected and 1, 2 or 3% of the people have died. So far, we don’t see that.
Unfortunately, as of today, antibody tests are still not sufficiently reliable to see through the haze and resolve the truth in this maze.
The Heinsberg study in Germany pointed to a mortality rate of 0.37%, which is close enough to my 0.2% estimate. Yes, almost twice, but the uncertainty in these estimates exceeds a factor of 2.
The Santa Clara study in California pointed to a much lower mortality rate — about 0.1%, but it’s a sunny place and the study may have been plagued by false positives.
An antibody study in Madrid put the mortality rate at 1.14%, which suggests that only 10-14% of the population in and around Madrid would have antibodies. If my 0.2% estimate is correct, the number of immune people would be 5 times higher.
In NY, the highest mortality rate was in Bronx — 0.3%. In nearby Manhattan, the mortality is only half that. Naturally, one asks why. The answer appears to lie in the demographics.
Manhattan Demographics.
The racial composition of Manhattan is:
White: 58.9%
Non-Hispanic White: 50.7%
Asian: 10.3%
Black or African American: 15.5%
The racial composition in Bronx is:
White: 40.8%
Non-Hispanic White: 10.5%
Asian: 4.2%
Black or African American: 43.3%
Therefore, Manhattan has 5 times more non-Hispanic whites than Bronx.
Bronx has 3 times more Africans than Manhattan.
Manhattan has 5 times more non-Hispanic whites than Bronx. Bronx has 3 times more Africans than Manhattan. People in Bronx are more likely to be black, Hispanic, obese and poor. People in Manhattan are more likely to be white and rich. In the US, there is a correlation between obesity and poverty because poor people cannot afford vegetables and other high quality food, and obesity is one of the pre-existent conditions that increases the likelihood of complications and deaths for COVID-19 patients.
Conclusion: The number of COVID-19 reported deaths in NY dropped from a peak of almost 800 a day in April to around 100 a day today, and appears to continue to decrease. So, it seems that this wave is almost over in NY and that the death rate there will stay around my 0.2% estimate. Locally, it varies primarily due to demographics, but the variations are under a factor of 2. If my estimate is correct, NY will have reached herd immunity, and not see a second deadly wave of COVID-19 in the fall.
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