Easing Lockdown -- local population is almost free + tourists in Italy

Most countries have eased lock-down and some are even planning to allow tourists back in. Surprisingly, Italy, the country that had originally been hardest hit by COVID-19, is the first to allow European tourists to cross its borders starting on June 3 -- without quarantine or other restrictions.

Greece has lifted restrictions for its own citizens, but not for refugees until June 7. This puts the refugees in various legal quandaries -- because they can not do their asylum related paperwork since there are fines for exiting the areas where they live. The Greek are opening their country to German tourists from June 15 to mainland and to the various islands starting on July 1st. Germany is expected to lift travel advisories for trips abroad on June 15, and the media predicts Spain, Italy, Portugal will be fighting over German tourists. Greece hopes it has a good shot at attracting more tourists because they had very few cases of COVID-19 and if people are still scared of this or if they are worried about being allowed to get back home they would choose Greece over the other countries. On June 15, Greece will resume air arrivals from Eastern Europe, China and the parts of Western Europe that have not been heavily hit by the pandemic.

Romania ended its emergency state on May 15, and has let its citizen travel within the country -- with a declaration if they exit the city -- but otherwise unrestricted age-wise or hour-wise. They've opened the land borders, and tens of thousands of people started going in and out of the country -- either returning or going to work abroad. However, most airports remain closed to international flights until June 15, when we don't know what will happen yet again. I am hopeful flights will restart since they are doing so in the rest of Europe and there was no increase in either the number of cases or COVID-19 related deaths since the measures eased. The number of reported COVID-19 deaths are around 10 per day for the whole country, which is negligible next to the 800 who die daily form all causes combined.

The UK is now the country with the highest number of COVID-19 related deaths in Europe, and second in the world after the US. The US has three times as many deaths as the UK for five times as many people and so per capita the UK did worse. However, UK leaders have now decided to quarantine all arrivals starting in June for 14 days -- unless they come from France, which is another country with close to 30, 000 deaths -- on third place in Europe in terms of COVID-19 deaths (after Italy and the UK). They are also proposing some track and trace approach -- now that they have almost a third of million of diagnosed COVID-19 cases -- but do not ability to test individuals on request unless they exhibit symptoms. I am not sure how severe the symptoms have to be at the moment. Unfortunately, the UK shows us that decisions regarding quarantine and opening/closing borders are largely political and not based on health related considerations even during a pandemic.

 

There are various protests around the world where people require their leaders to step down due to the handling of the pandemic. My children are asking me if we'll be able to laugh at all this a few years down the road. The answer is not so clear. So many people don't have salaries, and so many are hungry -- more in countries like Lebanon and India than in Europe where a type lockdown is still in place that should have never been imposed and they have no salaries and no ability to pay for rent or food. People are critical of Brazil for not imposing lockdown. However, Peru imposed a very early lockdown and still has around 4000 deaths for its 32 million people, while Brazil has 26,000 deaths and 210,000 people -- so the death rate per capita is a bit higher in Peru than in Brazil, and fewer people go hungry in Brazil.

Lockdown is a popular action, but it's unclear it's saving us from this virus that is very infectious and has already spread throughout the world. I am thankful COVID-19 numbers are not going up even though restrictions have eased. My children ask if, in a few years from now, we will we laugh at these measures and give them an example as a real life version of Idiocracy? Perhaps, if democracy will return and if extreme powers will not take its place. For now, I am thankful for the slow return of human rights. David is starting school on June 2nd, and Andy has purchased a ticket to come see us on June 17. I hope his flight won't be canceled yet again.

How deadly is COVID-19? Looking at data from NY

I have estimated the mortality of the Coronavirus to be about 0.2%. That estimate was published on this blog in mid-March and, later, in the book COVID-19: Observations from a World Upside-down.

Today, I will look at the data in NY —  currently, the most severely affected place in the world — and see how my 0.2% estimate holds.

Surely, if the mortality is vastly higher, say, like 2 or 3%, there would be a place, somewhere in the world, where management is bad enough for this number to be reached. Somewhere, there would be a country or state or county of say 10, 000 people or more where everyone has been infected and 1, 2 or 3% of the people have died. So far, we don’t see that.

Unfortunately, as of today, antibody tests are still not sufficiently reliable to see through the haze and resolve the truth in this maze.

The Heinsberg study in Germany pointed to a mortality rate of 0.37%, which is close enough to my 0.2% estimate. Yes, almost twice, but the uncertainty in these estimates exceeds a factor of 2.

The Santa Clara study in California pointed to a much lower mortality rate — about 0.1%, but it’s a sunny place and the study may have been plagued by false positives.

An antibody study in Madrid put the mortality rate at 1.14%, which suggests that only 10-14% of the population in and around Madrid would have antibodies. If my 0.2% estimate is correct, the number of immune people would be 5 times higher.

In NY, the highest mortality rate was in Bronx — 0.3%. In nearby Manhattan, the mortality is only half that. Naturally, one asks why. The answer appears to lie in the demographics.

Manhattan Demographics.

The racial composition of Manhattan is:
White: 58.9%
Non-Hispanic White: 50.7%
Asian: 10.3%
Black or African American: 15.5%

The racial composition in Bronx is:
White: 40.8%
Non-Hispanic White: 10.5%
Asian: 4.2%
Black or African American: 43.3%
Therefore, Manhattan has 5 times more non-Hispanic whites than Bronx.
Bronx has 3 times more Africans than Manhattan.
Manhattan has 5 times more non-Hispanic whites than Bronx. Bronx has 3 times more Africans than Manhattan. People in Bronx are more likely to be black, Hispanic, obese and poor.  People in Manhattan are more likely to be white and rich. In the US, there is a correlation between obesity and poverty because poor people cannot afford vegetables and other high quality food, and obesity is one of the pre-existent conditions that increases the likelihood of complications and deaths for COVID-19 patients.

Conclusion: The number of COVID-19 reported deaths in NY dropped from a peak of almost 800 a day in April to around 100 a day today, and appears to continue to decrease. So, it seems that this wave is almost over in NY and that the death rate there will stay around my 0.2% estimate. Locally, it varies primarily due to demographics, but the variations are under a factor of 2. If my estimate is correct, NY will have reached herd immunity, and not see a second deadly wave of COVID-19 in the fall.

COVID-19: A fight for power between Internet and Oil?

When reading and discussing about climate change in the past, we used to hear that we live in an oligarchy, and that there was little we could do about it because they were the ones who supported politicians financially and so the politicians could not go against them politically.  This meant that a president or political system could never make changes that went against the oil industry or against large manufacturing that used oil like the car manufacturing industry because he would lose his financial support. Dad would often joke that the world would be a much better place if Google was in charge. So, did COVID-19 change that? and was the change sudden?

We've seen older and older people in charge. The leading candidates competing for the US presidency were in their 70s. Most are old and some are ill. President Trump suffers from dementia. Bernie Sanders had a stroke before becoming front-runner with Joe Biden. Apparently the stroke increased his rating. Even Vladimir Putin is only two years younger than my grandfather -- and while he has ambitions to be a dictator for life, he's already well past the retirement age of 65, which in Russia is even lower. Past the retirement age, in Europe, doctors are kicked out of hospitals because they are too old and too likely to make mistakes (exceptions were made during the COVID-19 crisis).  However, people deemed unfit to work because of their age can be presidents and maintain leadership and make mistakes that affect the whole world not just one or two patients. I blamed this on the influence of the oil industry and the need of the oligarchy to stay in charge -- I thought they would select older people who did not understand how the internet works and would continue to support the old ways. 

Most people -- including me -- less so Edward because he does not have a phone are terribly addicted to their screen. Did COVID-19 facilitate the taking over of power from the oligarchy? Is this a good thing? I used to think it would be good to have younger people in charge who understand how a computer works and how to use it to benefit mankind. But is that what's happening? 

Half of Lugoj is full of beautiful mansions that are said to be built from the trafficking of people -- women, girls, boys -- they are trafficked mostly to Western Europe: Germany, Austria, Italy, Spain, etc. The path to take everything they've got is to 1) attract them (either by pretending to love them, posing as a form of legal employment or simply abducting them) 2) get them addicted to some drug like opium 3) threaten to kill them, maim them, and destroy their families if they try to escape,  4) censure their every move while they get used to their position, and 5) make them feel indebted to their captors for the little that is provided -- housing, living expenses to keep them alive. After these steps, and perhaps after a few abortive attempts at escape, most stay and 'work' for the monsters who abuse them of their own 'free will'. The rest of the population thinks it's ok and does not interfere because they believe the path was 'freely' chosen and because it's easier to do nothing. I've never seen a person who was trafficked because it's done out of sight. I only seen the mansions. Our next door neighbor -- one of the owners of the mansions -- was in prison for human trafficking. He came out last year, bought another house, and now he and his family are abroad again. People in countries with buyers, who are driving an industry that produces so much money (without buyers the traffic would not exist), don't believe it's happening in their country. So, everybody is happy -- minus the people trafficked -- who are replaceable. 

So, is what's happening with the help of measures imposed to save us from COVID-19 an extremely successful attempt at taking money from one group of people (the oligarchy and most of us) and giving it to another? are some people wanting to take everything from the oligarchy and from everyone else? Have they already succeeded, in part?  After all, we are all attracted and addicted to the screen. Now, we are also afraid for our lives and the lives of our loved ones, and free speech about COVID-19 is already openly being censured by Amazon and by facebook.  They say it's about not spreading fake information and allowing only professionals to speak, but no topic was off limits before. Are phones going to turn into censured objects that light green when we are allowed to go out of prison and will the prisons be our own homes? It's cheaper this way -- after all -- until there is nothing left to take.

I know the virus is real. I also believe it went through our family in February, but there are no antibody tests available in Lugoj as of yet who could tell us if I am correct. Both Edward and I were pretty sick. I coughed for many weeks -- worse than ever before. They would send me home from school because I could not stop coughing, but then I would go back because I am in my final year of middle school and since I have exams at the end of the year, it was not an option to miss too much. Most of my colleagues were in similar situations -- many had been very, very sick. I developed a range of new allergies after this awful cough, but all of us are mostly fine otherwise. I have not heard of deaths in the families of my colleagues or friends due to the very bad respiratory infections either.

What worries me is not temporary measures -- as long as they'll be over. But will they be over? If I look back at the history of my own family: my great-great-grandfather was in prison on ship, his fight for freedom was successful and his children (my great-grandfather and his brothers) were free to travel and study abroad. My grandparents were trapped, and lived through communist. They could not leave the country. The cities were closed to and you had to have an ID from a certain city to be able to work there. Freedom of speech was non-existent and they could have been arrested, tortured, and murdered any time. My parents were free to meet (my mom is originally from China, my dad is Romanian), travel and study abroad. Is it my turn now to be in prison? and that of my generation? I was taking about this with Ruxandra last night and asked why they had children if they knew family history and world history. After all, a world war with guns is overdue and the past keeps repeating itself.  She said she was not sure that the current prison-like-time will extend to death and destruction, but that there was no way of telling beforehand and she did not think of this when she had children. She also said that there is always a form of fight between good and evil like in stories and that it's her hope that Edward, James and I will be a force of good in the world no matter what happens next. 

I don't want to be good. I want a new phone. I want to be on the beach in a nice place. I don't like school. I don't like writing or reading much. I avoided homework as much as possible, and I am trying to do a lot of it at once now that school will restart -- just for the kids in their final year like me. It's easier to procrastinate even by writing on the blog than to do the grammar, writing, and the math I have to do -- even though Ruxandra and/or grandma can and do help me when I ask. 

I want to be free and I want to live in a world like the one before COVID-19. I don't want it to change, and I don't see why it should change. In Romania, the number of deaths were a minor perturbation to the regular daily deaths. On average, about 800 people die daily. Due to COVID-19 we've had 20-30 deaths a day at the peak of the pandemic -- most with serious pre-existent conditions -- and today there are fewer. Some of western Europe had a larger number of deaths, which is expected for a new virus, but the numbers are no nearly large enough to justify dictatorships. They seem manageable now that they've even increased hospital capacity, and the new hospitals had to close because of lack of patients. 

If I look back at my title: car sales are down, planes are grounded, oil prices are down to often below the extraction price, manufacturing is down, etc. Sales of phone, mobile devices, computers, etc and the market value of various companies that manufacture them are up. Is there a shift of power? If so, how many will lose their life and freedom because of it? Grandma used to tell me that she learned to count in the beginning of communism by counting the black flags. Every street had ever so many. They would be put up when somebody died. People did not give their livelihood away easily and some even died of grief -- without being physically hurt by the system. Will James learn to count the same way?

Apollo from Criciova

Apollo in Chizatau

In the cement mixer

This is Apollo ... from Criciova pictured in our garden in Chizatau. Apollo is the father of Eva and Edwin. Edwina fell in love with him at first sight. Mihai criticized me when I wrote about the arrival of Eva and Edwin Van Goat. He said it was wrong of me not to mention their paternity even if Apollo is no longer around. Apollo's original name was Gogu and he was supposed to be castrated the day we bought him. It's a procedure that is done so that the male goat smells less before being eaten. Then one has to wait for a number of months before killing him. He was so handsome that we called him "Apollo Gogu". We eventually had to sell him to a farm because one of the neighbors complained she could smell Apollo whenever she existed her home. I had a lengthy discussion with David on how are male goats are different from men. The primary difference is that goats pee on their faces to create a fairly powerful smell, which attracts the female, while most men do not pee on themselves -- since women would not find that attractive. Otherwise, goats have feelings and hang out together just like people. 

Grandma with Edwina and Eva

Since the pandemic whenever we traveled we took the goats with us -- because you were allowed to travel for agricultural purposes. David did not like it because he said the smell bothered him and because he thought they ruined his image -- David cares how he looks now, always combs his hair before exiting the house and even puts water on it to make it stick to one side (It's all about how he looks to the outside world, though, since he does not clean his room and throws his clothes on the floor and steps on them when inside and uses my room when talking with colleagues on Zoom because it's slightly less dirty; but he is rude to mom and grandma when asked to clean his stuff and so they leave him alone as part of being a teenager). Anyhow, we had to go without him a lot of the times.

Now, that Romania switched from "Starea de Urgenta" (Emergency State) to "Starea de Alerta" (Alert State), grandma is able to exit the house -- not just within a particular time frame, but any time. So, she and David were able to travel to Timisoara to help maintain property there. They did not take the goats with them, but brought the grass cut from the front of the house.

In this pandemic, it consoled me to know that we were traveling with the wife and children of Apollo  even if he is somewhere else now. Mom saw this as a joke. He is the handsomest animal we have seen to date -- he had that wild look about him that was so special while being patient and reasonably well behaved. The resemblance is not obvious when one looks at Eva and Edwin. They have blueish grey fur with a bit of brown and look almost like a cloud. When they were born on Easter Sunday I thought they looked like little Angels, which I suppose are close enough to Gods.

The police never stopped us during the emergency state when we had the goats with us. It must have been partly because one was allowed to travel for agricultural purposes, and partly because goats are still a sign of poverty as are children. So, with me and James and the goats well visible in the car, nobody wanted to ask mom any questions. It would not have been so if we had been in England or Spain, where children are demonized as vectors of the pandemic and animals can be a sign of opulence, but here people retained some tolerance -- mostly in smaller cities. We've heard that in Timisoara and Bucharest the police gave tons of fines, while in Lugoj they would mostly just ask people to fill out the form if they were found without it.

Real lord of the flies? The survival of the chicken!

There is a horrible book by William Golding about children marooned on an island. I've never read it, and I don't plan to read it, but I read about it. So what did the children do when left alone? Many behaved stupidly, some did not survive and some hurt each other. The book ends with the best of them crying for 'the loss of innocence'.

But would that happen in reality? A historian found a real story of six children stuck on the deserted island of Ata who survived for 15 months. They ate eggs, drunk the blood of animals instead of water when it did not rain, made a fire and took turns in keeping it alive for a year, and helped each other survive until a ship finally found them. One broke his leg, and the others put it in tree bark and leaves and did his share of the work while it mended perfectly.  Eventually, a ship arrived, and they made it home. And when they got home, they were placed in jail for stealing the boat that led to this whole experience. However, the captain that helped them escape paid for the boat, and wrote down the story and got a TV Channel to film the boys. Interestingly enough, their survival story was nowhere as famous as the dark version from Lord of the Flies, and the world forgot them. This realistic version must have been too similar to Robinson Crusoe to be worth remembering. I did read the Robinson Crusoe books -- he had it too easy -- marooned in a tropical paradise with tools and loads of things to use, while these kids appeared to be the real thing.

The island of Ata is still reported to be uninhabitable today. It did have a relatively prosperous community up to the mid 1800 until half of the inhabitants where taken to be sold as slaves, and the others left the island because they were worried for their safety.  What I find interesting is that the chicken survived. The human story is about the people who survived for a bit more than a year. The chicken reproduced for close to 200 years and they are mentioned only in passing -- to say that the kids built chicken pens and recaptured some of them. The survival of the chicken is what amazes me -- because we claim that domestic animals need us and yet we don't consider it a feat that they survived on the island -- in a volcanic crater -- about hundred times longer than some kids who fended for themselves. We take them for granted. 

We've taken our freedom for granted up to now, too. As the world imposes crazier and crazier rules, it scares me enough to think it might be easier to die than to survive a Russian+Chinese style captivity.  They are the leading powers after all. People are sure that children are irresponsible and silly, which could be why we are put in the same category as animals on declarations in Romania and have had fewer rights than pets in Spain. But if these 'responsible' adults who lead us bomb each other's countries until there is little left or find some other way to make the planet uninhabitable for people, it consoles me to think that there will be some chicken left behind who will be free to make it where we have failed. They'd be unable to tell a story our way, but perhaps they'd be there nevertheless.

COVID-19: the virus that ended freedom and dashed hopes

After a season of awful cold/flu symptoms, which consisted of cough, lots of secretions, tiredness and an on and off fever lasting for weeks and which might or might not have been COVID-19, my friends and I were looking forward to spring and summer. We are in the final year of middle school. My classmates were preparing to go to Germany as part of an exchange program, and I was discussing a potential internship in Germany, where I could learn more about methods to combat climate change. Edward and I even gave a talk on how to stop global warming at Cornell University last fall, and mentioning it seemed to impress people.

COVID-19 measures seemed far away -- people believed the measures were taken only in rich countries because in Eastern Europe there is little left to take. Tests were available only for people who arrived from abroad, and they were often placed in hospitals either for quarantine or when they tested positive even though they had mild or no symptoms. A number of cases were detected, but the number was much lower than in most other countries. Then suddenly in mid March when my friends and I were all finally feeling well, and preparing for final exams and for all the things we wanted to do in the spring, Romania followed other countries and entered emergency state. Schools closed with a promise to open soon, which did not materialize. Borders closed everywhere with a promise to re-open soon, which does not seem likely either.

On March 22nd the first COVID-19 death was recorded -- a man who came 'home' to Romania to die with terminal lung cancel, who was a certain bet for death. Quickly more recorded deaths followed -- most from patients with severe conditions -- many with infections acquired from hospitals; the patients had to go to the hospital due to various forms of cancer/strokes/need of kidney transplant or failure of other organs. In hospitals, there was little protective equipment available. These patients in various terminal states were easy and sure targets for the few tests available.

Suddenly, like elsewhere, everything closed and all our dreams and hopes were dashed. The scariest part is that since borders are closed everywhere, the EU might be splitting up. They don't have much power compared to other countries with guns that are being led by dictators (e.g., China, Russia, and even America have scary people in power, whose option is to either stay in power or perhaps die or go to prison).

We have some meetings on zoom with our school teachers and the school finally registered us on google classroom, but it's pretty hard to figure out what to do for each subject. We take pictures of hand-written homework, which cannot really be graded or read easily. The tests have no answers -- at least not those in German and we have not done much Romanian either -- and it's difficult to correct oneself or be motivated enough to keep sending these hard to read pictures. Of course, typing everything up is too hard, and we are not allowed to meet to hand things in person because it's not safe. I've done the required Math tests and most of the German tests, but I have only taken pictures of one of them. 

I was expecting a smart watch that my mom bought from Amazon in late February, but it still has not arrived. I've installed dozens of tracking applications on my phone, and none are able to track it anymore. Will our future be lost like my package? This track and trace approach of people coming from aboard created hatred towards foreigners and towards those returning from work abroad. People returning home from abroad are locked up for two weeks -- newspapers refer to them as 'vin leprosii' ('those infected infected with leprosy are coming') . The children and elderly cannot walk well when they come out of quarantine, but are grateful enough to be out that they do not complain. Studies estimate that the virus has already spread to perhaps either millions or at least hundreds of thousands who are already in the country and who are not being traced and cannot be traced because they are too many, but it's still important to trace those coming from abroad -- every one of them; they cannot and should not escape. Of course, now most flights are canceled and people can only go to work abroad in agriculture -- a form of modern slavery for which these new norms do not apply or are applied there but not here.

Adults everywhere applaud the approach taken by the world. They say that it is right. Can they be right when every thought and fiber in my being tells me they are wrong? Is there time to stop this hatred from growing and growing? Hatred towards foreigners, hatred towards children, who are the vectors of diseases and should be locked inside and allowed out perhaps an hour every day like in Spain, hatred towards old people, who keep 'us' inside? hatred towards anyone who is different? How much worse will it get? will I survive this hatred?  We are modern family who relied on air travel, and are split over several countries. I have not seen my father this year. Edward, my cousin, has not seen his since early January, which means he feels a bit better than me, but not much. Will we see them again? When? how? Will we be able to get outside the house without special papers after May 15? or will they extend this state when human rights are banned 'to protect' us?

I am half-Chinese and people scream obscenities at me when I pass on the street and often assume that I don't speak the language (I am fluent in Romanian, German and English and unfortunately I understand them better than I wish to; I speak no Chinese or any other Asian language). Human trafficking is not being monitored either. When a neighbor who is six threatened to call police to a group of cat-callers, they said they'd give a girl to the police officer and he won't do anything to them -- and if he is not good, they'd take him away from his family, too. Human trafficking happens at world-level, but people don't believe it can be true in their country and/or don't care to believe there is no consent involved especially if it's a girl/young woman who is being sold. Men like to believe women enjoy that sort of trade. Just like with climate change, there is a hope that it's better with everything closed. But is it? there is so much money involved, and so little monitoring, but perhaps, more sick rich people with switch to virtual interests and be afraid of humans.

Now the news is all about counting the COVID-19 victims. Nothing else matters much -- neither predictions of hunger of biblical proportions, which will kill more people than COVID-19 and in more painful ways, or the environment or the tsunami of hate unleashed by COVID-19 measures. These 'warnings' make it to the news for a bit, but there is not much done: e.g., the world still throws away tons of food even though people go hungry in lots of places; the EPA has been lifting rules and restrictions and so studying the climate is no longer relevant or desirable just now -- even though it still affects our future. It is like in the story of bottled water, when people were convinced to be afraid of tap water -- everywhere. Then fear was used as tool to sell something of, often, lower quality for lots of money to replace the water from the tap that was almost-free and certified to be safe to drink in most places. Bottled water sells a dream on its label -- water from beautiful areas with mountains and clear streams -- a dream of health and safety. Now, human interactions are dammed, and are expected to stay so for years -- to keep us safe and healthy. Can this be good? Is this the kind of future we should build? what will they sell in this brave new world?

Easying Lockdown - Phase 0

Denmark and Austria were the first countries to ease lock-down measures. Denmark opened schools more than two weeks ago, while Norway opened schools starting on April 27. They have also started to open more businesses. Denmark reports there is no acceleration in the virus spread. Both Norway and Denmark are still less liberal than Sweden.

The Czechs also report that the spread of COVID-19 is contained as the country reopens. It will be interesting to see if restrictions played 'the role' in this positive outcome or if they've had immunity to COVID-19 due to a missed wave in December/January/February.

Spain, France and Italy have started to ease restrictions. Towards the end of April Spain finally allowed its children (under the age of 14) to go outside for an hour a day (Edward was pretty unhappy about this restriction), and now, adults are allowed to exercise, too -- within limited hours as well. The deaths in France, Spain and Germany have fallen under 300, and every infected person infects less than one other person, which means the number of infections is going down. France plans to ease lock-down starting on May 11.

Germany is set to reopen smaller museums, galleries, playgrounds and zoos. They never locked people inside in the first place.

The UK still has a relatively high death rate. However, Boris Johnson reports the NHS is doing well and not overwhelmed. The number of deaths have been around 700 for the past few days. The UK is set to have the highest death rate in Europe -- to be fair -- they have much worse weather than the other competitors for this spot, i.e., France, Spain, and Italy.

Some states in the US are opening as well and some seem to add restrictions -- but there it's too early to tell what the effects will be. The numbers for countries who are easing lock-down measures in Europe are encouraging so far.

Poland has started lifting restrictions on April 20 and is allowing people to go outside, e.g., parks, forests -- without masks as long as they keep the 2 m distance. The ease of restrictions in Poland is relevant to Romania because they have very similar numbers. Romania has not eased any restrictions officially.

In Romania, schools and factories remain closed. We have seen more small stores open. The number of cases has been going down, and the number of deaths still hovers around 30. They have taken aggressive measures surrounding the 1st of May -- to make sure people don't celebrate by going outside. It's still unclear that going outside hastens the spread of the virus as long as social distancing measures are obeyed. The number of fatalities are under 800 with many suffering from severe pre-existent conditions.  

Given that the first COVID-19 death was reported on March 22 -- a patient who came home to die from terminal lung cancer -- and that about 800 people die daily from all causes combined, the number COVID-19 deaths is not high. Many believe we had a worse than usual flu season and that many of those cases where COVID-19.