Storms, floods and inches of freedom

me and James in the river

A strange bug -- saved by Edward

June has been the rainiest month in the past 60 years. Our president blamed the heavy rains on climate change and he is likely correct. A dam broke on the Timis river and so they closed the iron bridge, which is one of the two main bridges in Lugoj. However, by the end of June, the water has mostly retreated and the danger seems passed. The clouds were dense enough that the sun did not have power for more than two weeks. It felt like fall instead of summer. The rain was impressive -- it was the heaviest rain I have witnessed to date. It rained so hard that there was ankle deep water in the garden and this happened every day, several times a day. Seven of the chickens and our three baby ducks fainted due to exposure to the cold rain water. We managed to revive the ducks and four of the chickens with the hairdryer.  This was the driest year for decades because it also did not snow in the winter or rain in the spring, and then it became rainiest with all rain happening almost at once. The fields were flooded in many places as was our garden in Salbagel. There were frogs everywhere. The children played in the garden instead of at the river. It's been a year to remember.

With COVID-19 discussions about climate change came to a halt. World-wide farms and produce have been destroyed. This is not seen as important -- it's just the economy and lives -- human ones -- matter more. Every once in a while an article makes it to the media about cruelty on farms where animals are destroyed in even crueler ways than before because there are not enough people to handle the individual destruction. Germany and the US closed some  big meat processing plants. Then the men-power to slaughter each animal is gone. It's so much easier to destroy than to give away produce since no infrastructure in place for getting rid of 'excess' produce that is not perfectly packaged and warranted. Of course, all excesses are local maxima, meaning need can be found pretty close to the place of 'excess'.

Farms in Romania has been spared as far as the COVID-19 outbreak went. Agriculture went on -- it suffered from drought, and from the floods, and soon it will be suffering from extreme heat combined with occasional heavy rainfalls, but it was not closed because of the pandemic. The number of COVID-19 deaths were minimal -- did not surpass 20-30 per day (to put this in perspective, the daily death is 800 per day on average due to all other causes combined; so COVID-19 has been negligible to date) -- and now there is a secondary peak in the number of cases. The government is discussing more restrictions instead of the relaxation that was promised with the 1st of July. So far we travel freely and are not locked in. Most stores are opened as are restaurants. They are discussing closing touristic areas since they think most spreading happens there -- it would be another blow to an already struggling industry when countries like Spain and Italy are putting COVID-19 behind and are trying to attract tourists.

The borders opened to most European countries and flights restarted without quarantine. Andy managed to squeeze through after four canceled flights -- once he gave up on a direct flight from the UK and flew through Germany. We debated flying through Serbia and/or Hungary. We, however, were worried about the randomness of the measured that change from day to day and by the lack of regular transportation from the airports. So, he chose to go through Germany, which is the safe/known route. He is now in self-quarantine in Chizatau -- he has 9 days left of almost quiet time.

David was allowed to take his final exam and should start highschool next year. However, the long time spent on the computer and on the phone due to this pandemic affected his ability to function properly. His room looks like that of a drug addict and his behavior is not much better. So, once school finished I took his phone and computer away. I now hope that in time the situation will improve. To be a role model, I also put my computer and my red phone away. We both have cracked phone for calls...and no other means of communications. I cheated today to write this blog post. He keeps reminding me every day he wants a new phone. I pray and hope that in time he will get over this and have actual goals in mind beyond gadgets and toys.

A war that nobody remembers

I read George Toparceanu's "Balade Vesele si Triste" -- one of the ballads is required for summer reading for school, but I read the whole book. Like the title said some ballads were funny and some were sad. The one we have to read for school is about an ox, a magpie, and a dog. The ox puts puts up with the magpie because it's useful -- it eats the various bugs that disturb him, but throws off the dog, who just wants to be carried, and thinks the ox is stupid because he lets such a small bird sit on him.

At the end of the book it had excerpts from his other writings. The first were over Toparceanu's war memories during the Balkan war with Bulgaria, which set the stage for the first world war. The second Balkan war in which Romania took part started in 1913. In it Toparceanu was an officer and later a prisoner. He describes war as a way to return to the stone age for some and to a time before that for those who fought in the trenches, who are like beasts ready to pounce on each other for the entertainment of far-away leaders -- leaders who are stubborn and child-like and could not and would not learn from history because it's too long, and will not even learn from their own mistakes. 

Toparceanu was taken prisoner in 1916. He and some of his fellow prisoners (the rest were dumped at various labor camps along the way) went all the way to Macedonia by foot. There among the tragedies of war he is impressed by the multi-annual crops and by the artificial mashes for rice plantations -- rice is described as wheat-like, but less nutritious and a lot more labor intensive. In the better part of his imprisonment, they were allowed to each dig a home in the Earth. The home had no window, only a door through which light could pass. For a bit of light at night he bought chestnuts dumped in grease through which he would pass a thread of cotton to turn it into a form of candle. This was the stone-age phase. 

Some of the funny scenes include when he is put in charge of a locomotive, without prior training, and in charge of treating the sick as an assistant to a Greek who pretended to be a doctor, where he is quite successful in saving lives with the help of a Turk. The last adventure quoted is when he agrees to jump off the train that was taking him home to Romania to let the Bulgarian who was escorting him spend New Year's eve with his wife and family -- because he had been newly married and every moment of joy matters when death lurks near-by. What would everyone think when we jump off the train, he asks the escort: "that you are trying to escape, and that I am jumping after you to catch you". Then early on New Years Day they jumped onto another train. Toparceanu lived for another 20 years before dying of liver cancer. One wanders if the war-time privations did not seed the cancer.

It was pointed out to me that some of you might not know who George Toparceanu was. According to my dad, there are two kinds of famous people in Romania: the Mihais and the Georges. George Toparceanu like George Cosbuc is obviously from the second category.

My great-great-grandfather who's name was also George fought in the Bulgarian war in the same time as George Toparceanu. He became sick with typhoid fever and was thrown out with the dead and covered with lime-dust. They did not have had time to wait for everyone to fully die back then. The lime dust and the cold must have played a role in lowering the fever and waking him up. So, he crawled from among the dead and walked to a nearby Bulgarian village, where some women nursed him back to health. They helped him even though he was on the opposite side in the war and typhoid fever was contagious. The authorities sent his wive a notice of his death, but forgot to send news of his recovery. He reported back to the front-line to a different unit and kept fighting until the first world war ended in 1918. Then he wrote home and his five children and wife were surprised and delighted to have a father and husband again. Through the privations and tragedy of war, he learned enough medicine to become the unofficial doctor of his village. He could set bones that healed straight, and knew enough about plants to dispel fevers and treat various heart conditions before medication was routinely available. Although he did not have George Toparceanu's amazing talent, some stories about him are still remembered and retold 100 years later.

Grandma tells me that in great wars there are no winners -- and that the leaders who start them lose everything -- eventually. Alexandru Macedon was poisoned. Napoleon was imprisoned on the island of Elba. Hitler committed suicide by swallowing a capsule of cyanide and shooting himself in the head just before Germany surrendered unconditionally. Yet somehow I am not surprised by the past. I am only surprised by the present. It's strange that the leaders we have win at all in a so-called democratic society. Like Toparceanu wrote more than 100 years ago, today our leaders seem both stupid and child-like. Yet they stay in power -- the news are full of Trump's dealings with China to win the 2020 elections, and were full of his interaction with Russia in 2016. Somehow he is still the president, and how can he give up power when leaders and their whole families were court-martialed for less?

But in spite of all this, is there an upside to having a war that destroys the world as we know it only so that we feebly try to rebuilt years later? The up side of the stone-age/beast-age return is that the dreadful competition between nations leads to progress.  A lot of technology has been developed and perfected during wartime -- this includes the back-bones of much of what is used today: the radio, planes, the telephone, nuclear energy.

The fight against COVID-19 is still seen as a form of war -- in that we feel proud of fighting by staying out of the way of the virus. But what will history say 100 years down the road? Will humanity survive 100 years? If so will the blanket measures that destroyed what was left of freedom and democracy be seen as a form of media-driven insanity that set the stage for wars with guns? will all this be forgotten? will it be judged in Nuremberg-type trials? or will it be praised? can the response of the various leaders be praised? will safety and democracy come back without a war with guns?

Citeste mai mult: adev.ro/pbdziy

Easing Lockdown -- local population is almost free + tourists in Italy

Most countries have eased lock-down and some are even planning to allow tourists back in. Surprisingly, Italy, the country that had originally been hardest hit by COVID-19, is the first to allow European tourists to cross its borders starting on June 3 -- without quarantine or other restrictions.

Greece has lifted restrictions for its own citizens, but not for refugees until June 7. This puts the refugees in various legal quandaries -- because they can not do their asylum related paperwork since there are fines for exiting the areas where they live. The Greek are opening their country to German tourists from June 15 to mainland and to the various islands starting on July 1st. Germany is expected to lift travel advisories for trips abroad on June 15, and the media predicts Spain, Italy, Portugal will be fighting over German tourists. Greece hopes it has a good shot at attracting more tourists because they had very few cases of COVID-19 and if people are still scared of this or if they are worried about being allowed to get back home they would choose Greece over the other countries. On June 15, Greece will resume air arrivals from Eastern Europe, China and the parts of Western Europe that have not been heavily hit by the pandemic.

Romania ended its emergency state on May 15, and has let its citizen travel within the country -- with a declaration if they exit the city -- but otherwise unrestricted age-wise or hour-wise. They've opened the land borders, and tens of thousands of people started going in and out of the country -- either returning or going to work abroad. However, most airports remain closed to international flights until June 15, when we don't know what will happen yet again. I am hopeful flights will restart since they are doing so in the rest of Europe and there was no increase in either the number of cases or COVID-19 related deaths since the measures eased. The number of reported COVID-19 deaths are around 10 per day for the whole country, which is negligible next to the 800 who die daily form all causes combined.

The UK is now the country with the highest number of COVID-19 related deaths in Europe, and second in the world after the US. The US has three times as many deaths as the UK for five times as many people and so per capita the UK did worse. However, UK leaders have now decided to quarantine all arrivals starting in June for 14 days -- unless they come from France, which is another country with close to 30, 000 deaths -- on third place in Europe in terms of COVID-19 deaths (after Italy and the UK). They are also proposing some track and trace approach -- now that they have almost a third of million of diagnosed COVID-19 cases -- but do not ability to test individuals on request unless they exhibit symptoms. I am not sure how severe the symptoms have to be at the moment. Unfortunately, the UK shows us that decisions regarding quarantine and opening/closing borders are largely political and not based on health related considerations even during a pandemic.

 

There are various protests around the world where people require their leaders to step down due to the handling of the pandemic. My children are asking me if we'll be able to laugh at all this a few years down the road. The answer is not so clear. So many people don't have salaries, and so many are hungry -- more in countries like Lebanon and India than in Europe where a type lockdown is still in place that should have never been imposed and they have no salaries and no ability to pay for rent or food. People are critical of Brazil for not imposing lockdown. However, Peru imposed a very early lockdown and still has around 4000 deaths for its 32 million people, while Brazil has 26,000 deaths and 210,000 people -- so the death rate per capita is a bit higher in Peru than in Brazil, and fewer people go hungry in Brazil.

Lockdown is a popular action, but it's unclear it's saving us from this virus that is very infectious and has already spread throughout the world. I am thankful COVID-19 numbers are not going up even though restrictions have eased. My children ask if, in a few years from now, we will we laugh at these measures and give them an example as a real life version of Idiocracy? Perhaps, if democracy will return and if extreme powers will not take its place. For now, I am thankful for the slow return of human rights. David is starting school on June 2nd, and Andy has purchased a ticket to come see us on June 17. I hope his flight won't be canceled yet again.

How deadly is COVID-19? Looking at data from NY

I have estimated the mortality of the Coronavirus to be about 0.2%. That estimate was published on this blog in mid-March and, later, in the book COVID-19: Observations from a World Upside-down.

Today, I will look at the data in NY —  currently, the most severely affected place in the world — and see how my 0.2% estimate holds.

Surely, if the mortality is vastly higher, say, like 2 or 3%, there would be a place, somewhere in the world, where management is bad enough for this number to be reached. Somewhere, there would be a country or state or county of say 10, 000 people or more where everyone has been infected and 1, 2 or 3% of the people have died. So far, we don’t see that.

Unfortunately, as of today, antibody tests are still not sufficiently reliable to see through the haze and resolve the truth in this maze.

The Heinsberg study in Germany pointed to a mortality rate of 0.37%, which is close enough to my 0.2% estimate. Yes, almost twice, but the uncertainty in these estimates exceeds a factor of 2.

The Santa Clara study in California pointed to a much lower mortality rate — about 0.1%, but it’s a sunny place and the study may have been plagued by false positives.

An antibody study in Madrid put the mortality rate at 1.14%, which suggests that only 10-14% of the population in and around Madrid would have antibodies. If my 0.2% estimate is correct, the number of immune people would be 5 times higher.

In NY, the highest mortality rate was in Bronx — 0.3%. In nearby Manhattan, the mortality is only half that. Naturally, one asks why. The answer appears to lie in the demographics.

Manhattan Demographics.

The racial composition of Manhattan is:
White: 58.9%
Non-Hispanic White: 50.7%
Asian: 10.3%
Black or African American: 15.5%

The racial composition in Bronx is:
White: 40.8%
Non-Hispanic White: 10.5%
Asian: 4.2%
Black or African American: 43.3%
Therefore, Manhattan has 5 times more non-Hispanic whites than Bronx.
Bronx has 3 times more Africans than Manhattan.
Manhattan has 5 times more non-Hispanic whites than Bronx. Bronx has 3 times more Africans than Manhattan. People in Bronx are more likely to be black, Hispanic, obese and poor.  People in Manhattan are more likely to be white and rich. In the US, there is a correlation between obesity and poverty because poor people cannot afford vegetables and other high quality food, and obesity is one of the pre-existent conditions that increases the likelihood of complications and deaths for COVID-19 patients.

Conclusion: The number of COVID-19 reported deaths in NY dropped from a peak of almost 800 a day in April to around 100 a day today, and appears to continue to decrease. So, it seems that this wave is almost over in NY and that the death rate there will stay around my 0.2% estimate. Locally, it varies primarily due to demographics, but the variations are under a factor of 2. If my estimate is correct, NY will have reached herd immunity, and not see a second deadly wave of COVID-19 in the fall.