In a landmark ruling that shocked the world, the US Supreme Court has overthrown Roe and decided a woman's right to terminate a pregnancy shall no longer be protected at federal level.
Donald Trump has rightly hailed this as his victory, as it was the three Supreme Court judges he has appointed to serve for life that have played a decisive role. It is also a reminder that Trump and his movement have a good grip on America that will continue throughout and beyond the Biden presidency.
Internationally, this is very bad news for the world. It means America will concern itself increasingly with its internal problems and pay less attention to the international scene. Thus, The US is more likely to hand Ukraine to Russia and Taiwan to China just like it has recently given Afghanistan to the Taliban, Hong Kong to China and championed the rise of dictators worldwide in the name of the Coronavirus, while people sporting Buffalo horns entered the US capitol chanting "Hang Mike Pence". Mike Pence got out through the back door, but the people whoes rights are disappearing around the world don't have a safe exit. Should Russia decide to send some nuclear bombs to Europe, The US is more likely to watch from afar and concern itself with internal problems instead of protecting its NATO partners.
The US is, as it currently stands, is by no means in a position to enforce a ban on abortion that has statistically relevant effects on the American population. It will however be interesting to see what happens when Putin or someone with similar dictatorial power enacts a similar ban. As a Romanian, I have seen this experiment carried out in my country. The results are interesting, and very much worthy of academic attention.
Thus, what will be the effect of the new Supreme Court ruling? The Supreme Court ruled that it will no longer impose upon state governments the obligation to allow women to have terminations. States are democratic entities that vote on their own and decide on the matter. Most states will not change much. Some states -- not most, but not few -- have already banned abortions altogether. Women in these states are still free to have abortions elsewhere. The Supreme Court ruling thus increases the average cost of a termination by a trip to a state where it is allowed. This is something of order $100 and amounts to a form of government advice.
In the sates where abortion is banned, the cost of the procedure will no longer be covered by health insurance. This will make the situation in the US smilar to Germany, where abortion is strangely illegal, and not covered by health insurance as governmengt health care does not wish to take part in criminal activity. Still, abortion is effectively available to all German women and widely practiced.
Removing terminations from the list of procedures covered by insurance means the cost of the insurance premium will decrease, probably by a few cents, as insurance companies no longer have to pay for the procedure. As such people from these states, the majority of which do not have terminations and half of which are men, will no longer be forced to pay for the abortions of those who require them.
The women having abortions will have to pay themselves, again an added financial burden which is small for middle class Americans.
But, as we all know, not all Americans are middle class. The poor American women who are more likely to be Black, Hispanic and vote democrat are more likely to be swayed into continuing an unwanted pregnancy by this few hundred dollars worth of financial pressure. As such, the homeless, the destitute and drug addicts will often choose to have another fix of heroin or whatever makes them happy, instead of terminating an unwanted pregnancy.
But, not all women are free. Women who are pregnant and jailed in a state that no longer allows terminations will be forced to carry the pregnancy to term. This is the only group where the new law causes a drastic and irreversible change of situation.
Overall, abortion remains available, with no significant changes to most women that matter -- the educated, the rich, the middle class, the feminists, etc. The poor, the destitute, the mentally ill, the criminals and those imprisoned without having committed a crime, will be forced to bear unwanted children and build the America of tomorrow.
Some 20 years following the wide spread introduction of abortions, we have seen a clear drop in criminality in the US. This was not due to better policy, but to the fact that children more likely to be come criminals were less likely to be born ( https://freakonomics.com/podcast/abortion-and-crime-revisited-update/ ). The current ruling will revert this trend. We will thus see an increase in criminality in 20 years time. This is, however, not a problem. The Second Amendment guarantees every American the right to carry a gun and protect himself from criminals. We can enprison the criminals and force them to have more children, at gunpoint, if need be.
Obviously, not all people convicted and jailed are criminals. With current imigration laws, perhaps most are not. Prominent examples are Julien Assange, Alexey Navalny, Nelson Mandela, immigrants held in various centers awaiting deportation or asylum, victims of the Holochaust, etc, etc. How does the Supreme Court justify denying these people the right to a termination, when it is the state that imprisoned them illegally and their free counterparts can access the procedure by traveling to another state? What will be the appropriate reparation the US should pay to a mother and her born child, if the birth of the child is the result of the mother being unfairly imprisoned during her pregnancy? Is this question so politically inconvenient that it makes people uncomfortable reading it?
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