This year, since COVID-19 started, I have made a number of predictions about the virus and the world. We review how they fared.
— I have predicted the mortality rate to be in the 0.2% of the infected people.
The number holds true. One naturally expects most of the population to be infected. There was no country or state where this number was surpassed, although New Jersey and New York come close at 0.199% and 0.181%, repectively.
Sure, the number will be surpassed in some regions, while it will not be reached in others. It can only be a rough estimate, but, looking back a very reasonable one.
— I have predicted the typical mortality rate to be in the region of 0.1% of the entire population, as, perhaps, by the end of this, only half of the people would be infected.
As of today, 12 states and 6 countries have gone above 0.1% mortality.
Only 10 states remain below 0.05% and 30 countries lie between 0.05% and 1%.
Thus, the 0.1% as a realistic and optimistic death toll for COVID-19 seems to be true.
Belgium seems to have come to the end of the epidemic, having lost 0.15% of its population to the lines, whereas Sweden may have gotten away with only 0.0724%.
Sweden is certainly a good example to follow.
— I have predicted 80 000 deaths in Germany. So far, I am lucky to have been wrong. The pandemic hasn’t come to an end here though. Germany has lost 20 000 people and there are certainly many more to go. There is a good chance, and hope, that the upcoming vaccine will cut German losses a lot below my prediction.
Sure, Belgium next door, has lost 0.15% of the population — half-way between my optimistic/realistic 0.1% and the 0.2% expected if the whole population got infected.
My models are fairly basic and can’t distinguish between 2 European nations like Germany and Belgium — similar culture, similar advanced medical systems, same aged population…
— I have predicted that the entire Chinese population was infected and there will be no second wave in China this winter.
So far, there was no second wave in China, although China claims this is due to their highly effective quarantine.
I believe a highly effective quarantine would have resulted in a situation like in Germany, where the virus keeps spreading and becomes rampant every time the measures are relaxed or the weather cools.
This is not what we see. The Chinese picture is only consistent to a population that was thoroughly infected in the first wave and a government that turns a blind eye to the few cases happening now.
Sure, the Chinese government will probably credit the eradication of COVID-19 to their highly effective vaccine and their phenomenal disregard for human rights in the implementation of their superior quarantine.
If they ever do double blind study where half of the people get vaccinated and half get injected with distilled water, my guess is that there will be no difference in COVID-19 deaths between the 2 groups.
— I have predicted a second wave in the fall and have predicted it to be stronger in countries that were successful at implementing the quarantine measures in summer.
I have predicted that successful implementation of infection control will only lead to an unstable situation where the measures will continue to be needed and infections will pick up as the weather cools.
We’ve seen this in Eastern Europe, with North Macedonia, Bosnia and Slovenia, Montenegro and the Czech Republic — all success stories at containing Corona in the summer, having come later to overall mortality rates comparable with the UK and France. Alongside the above, Armenia and Bulgaria have surpassed Sweden, while Romania isn’t far behind.
— I have predicted that COVID-19 will not seriously affect third world countries, despite the poorly developed medical system and overall disregard for human lives.
The reasons were the following
— These counters have a relatively young population. Young people are generally able to clear the infection without much medical help.
— Due to other endemic deadly illnesses (malaria, etc), these countries have relatively few people that are close to death and kept alive by the medical system. Thus, many of those who could have been killed by Corona were already killed by other things (malaria, etc).
This was largely proven true. COVID-19 hasn’t proven to be a problem at all in Africa.
India seems to have come to the end of the first wave with only 0.01% dead. Afghanistan has half of that.
Sure, there are more deaths and cases to come, but nothing near enough to justify a loss of 25% of India’s GDP.
We should not forget that the average Indian dies 10 years too soon, while the average African of Afghan maybe as much as 30 years before his or her time. COVID-19 victims, on average, appear to die about 2 years too soon. Thus, Africa and India would be far better off trying to reduce mortality from causes unrelated to COVID-19 than worrying about COVID-19 itself.
— I have predicted that Trump has placed himself in a position that he can’t leave office safely, as a free man. This has proven true, as illustrated by his desperate fight to steal the electoral victory from his democratic rival, Joe Biden.
— I have predicted that Trump will benefit from the COVID-19 war and win the election.
I hope I was wrong about the election. He certainly had an electoral advantage and scored much higher than expected. I am so very glad Biden won because it gives the world hope.
Trump is still in a position that he can’t peacefully leave office.
He and his allies would rather bring Democracy itself to an end rather than follow will of the people, as measured by an imperfect election and counting mechanisms that are too hard to control.
He seems to have forgotten that this is all a game. It isn’t that important who wins the election. What matters is that the election has a winner and that the loser accepts its faith and the show goes on. This was perfectly illustrated by the Bush vs Gore match, when a different recount in Florida would have likely led to a different president. Yet, the randomness of the choice between shockingly equal candidates was accepter and the show continued. Both Bush and Gore remained respectable free men, perhaps with the slightly wrong one in the White House. It’s not presidential to ruin relations between friends for a silly presidency.
Trump is taking things too personally. He’s placed himself in a position where he can’t leave office peacefully and he is considering ending democracy instead.
If there was any substance to the impeachment process — where he was tried for trying to attack the son of Joe Biden in order to rig the election, his commitment to democracy has now been made crystal clear. His current attempt to rig the current election, done officially, above board, in the US, should be sufficient for impeachment.
— I have called this COVID-19 Phenomenon a World War. I stand by that, despite the absence of nuclear weapons from the fight. We’ll see what comes next. Aliens, maybe?
The changes in human rights, freedom, GDP’s and rankings of world powers is certainly reminiscent of war.
The current situation is a danger to democracy and the current world order.
COVID-19 was, in my view, a trigger and a catalyst in the World’s transition to a war-like state. This state is likely to continue beyond the end of the pandemic.
The pandemic should end soon after the American election gets settled. By January 20, the virus would have infected most people in the countries that matter and, for the rest, there will be a vaccine.
I hope to be proven wrong on this, but I fear the war is likely to continue, perhaps with a different official purpose in mind. Will it be the Environment next time? Maybe.
