The world has recently witnessed remarkable scenes in the Oval Office. Donald Trump did a spectacular U-turn in American policy, apparently turning away from Europe and against Ukraine and promoting lines that appear to come straight from Putin’s propaganda. He may be a comical character despised by many, but his administration is not made of stupid people. We should not forget that in all Trump’s elections he got vastly more votes for the dollar than the competition. Trump also had the intellectual upper ground in the Corona situation (ignore the virus, and minimize economic impact). In light of this, I tried hard to find a logical justification for the perplexing scenes we have seen in the Oval Office, and here’s the best I can come with.
War with China?China’s economy is the same size as the US. China is currently the only competitor to the US in the space of Artificial Intelligence. DeepSeek can rival with Open AI or any other American outfit. An alliance between Russian and China, the core nations of BRICS, would be very dangerous to the US. Together, Russia and China would have the largest land area, the largest economy, largest population, largest army and, arguably, largest nuclear arsenal of any nation or alliance in the world. Also, both Russian and China are dictatorships, and, therefore, more fit for war than democracies. Both place little value on human life, enabling them to lose a large number of soldiers without problems for the regime.
The war in Ukraine has, so far, brought Russia and China closer. This is very dangerous for the US and current world order. The Chinese cities, population as well as economic and military targets are relatively undefended and vulnerable to both Russian and American attacks. Russia is however able to hit China with nuclear weapons easier than the US. Thus, having Putin on his side can be seen as important for Trump, and not without reason. In exchange for support against China, Trump could give Putin not only Ukraine, but also the rest of Europe. The Trump administration finds it easiest to give away what's not theirs to give.
Consequences for Ukraine and for Russia.In the current war, Ukraine has relied heavily on US support. Following the Oval Office argument, that support has stopped. It might have stopped anyway, as Trump is averse to spurning money on the matter and friendly towards Putin. There are however a lot of American weapons system in Ukraine. These systems are governed by agreements that protect Russia. Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine was not allowed to to strike deep inside Russia, and was heavily limited in its choice of targets. With American relations broken and American support gone, Ukraine may now be free to strike anything in Russia with the remaining US weapons. This could open to possibility of powerful bombs landing in large cities, with serious loss of Russian life. Economic, military and nuclear sites can also be hit. Symbolic places like the Red Square or Putin’s Palace on the Black Sea made famous by Alexey Navalny can also be targeted.
Sure, Russia would respond, perhaps starting a deadlier phase of World War III. Unfortunately, it does not seem like war is coming to an end. It should given the climate problems it causes, but the leaders of the world seem less reasonable than ever before. WWIII is what Trump warned us about, and, indeed, it is my opinion that World War III is ongoing and won’t stop anytime soon.
