Donald Trump has spoken several times of a secret plan to end the war in Ukraine. For this piece, I try to get into the mind of the old man and aspiring World Dictator to see what the deal may be. The Trump exercise is to bring lasting peace to the region, largely through negotiation, without significant military expenditure or loss of life, and, at the same time MAKE AMERICA GREAT.
So far, there are two main options proposed.
1) Russia wants Ukraine to lose occupied territories, and allow them to become Russian.
2) Ukraine wants Russia to give up the occupied territories, and, perhaps, pay reparation for the damage caused through the war.
Obviously, (1) is not acceptable to the US, and would allow China to take over Taiwan and the South China Sea. Setting a precedent of allowed expansion would embolden other nations to follow their expansionist agendas. Russia would also emerge stronger, and a victor.
On the other hand, (2) is not acceptable to Russia, as it would nullify their war effort. Also, should Russia agree to repay for the damages in Ukraine, it would likely lead to national bankruptcy. The war wasn’t even paid for by Ukraine, but by the US and Europe — and, as we know Trump, he should want his money back. After all, it’s fair — why should misbehaving war making nations like Russia and Ukraine end up getting free American money just because they start wars for no good reason?
AND, with only options (1) and (2) on the table, there is no obvious end of the war in sight.
So, here I propose option (3):
3) The disputed territories are ceded by both Russia and Ukraine and shall be administered by the US. They can, at best, become a state or a territory like Puerto Rico. Or, at the very least, be leased for a nominal rent for ever, like Guantanamo Bay.
Crimea is a nice piece of land. It comes with significant oil reserves and would give the US a heavy word to say, and the potential to levy taxes on the gas and oil trade between Russia and Europe. Perhaps more importantly, as the world population collapses, this outpost at the center of Europe, would give the US a good way to recruit high quality European migrants for the domestic market. Making Crimea American would also weaken European Union and prevent a Russia-Europe Union as once attempted by Hitler from forming in the future. With an American territory and buffer zone between Ukraine and Russia, Ukraine would be safe from Russian aggression, and would-be war making nations would learn a lesson of American dominance and be cautions about starting other wars now. Acquiring new land would project an image of American greatness at home and abroad. This would boost the Trump presidency and help him establish a successful dinasty in America.
Who could object?
A)** Ukraine **
Ukraine has de jure ownership of these lands, but Crimea has been de facto Russian for a long time. The other occupied territories will also be very expensive to gain back. Once regained, reconstruction will be very costly and bring little. Also, a new Russian invasion will always remain a possibility.
Ukraine now owes America a lot of money. Much of the military aid was in for of a loan, that Ukraine cannot easily pay back, even if it wins the war and all its land back. America could exchange this debt for the land. American land nearby would bring Ukraine the security guarantees it always wanted alongside migration and economic opportunities its people dream of. Ukraine might even pay Trump’s America money to accept de jure ownership of the Russian occupied land.
B) ** EU **
European Union has already accepted tacitly Russian occupation and annexation of Crimea. Economically speaking, Russia is a country of 145 million poor people. If they allow Russia, they sure would allow America. Plus, EU itself has been expanding. Why not the US? Also, the EU is no serious military power. They’d welcome the added security of an American buffer zone between themselves and Russia. They’ve been reluctant to admit Ukraine in the EU, and they’d be under less pressure to do so once Ukraine is safe from Russian aggression.
C) ** Russia **As a country of 120 million poor people, and soon to be far fewer, Russia may not have so much to say. The end of the war is a good thing. Sharing a border with America is a good thing. NATO bases are already here, so, having American land may not immediately seem to be such a big change. US could offer Russia peace, Russia's blocked money and no obligation to pay back reparations from this war.
D) ** China **China won’t like it, but, does it matter? They already got Hong Kong. Maybe they’ll want Taiwan to agree, or, maybe America can get that too? Overall, an American territory between Ukraine and Russia would be far more successful and easier to maintain than hard won American territorial gains in Afghanistan. The migrants this territory would produce would be of better quality than any recent wars, and very much needed by the US market, as local birth rates fall. Ending the war, with a territorial gain for America, a financial gain for American and without physical fighting would be a great thing for the Trump administration. I wonder if such a proposal might fly before the election, and be the vehicle to win the election. After all, the election is the most important thing right now in the Trump game. Russia may be once again the Trump card.
Trump understands real estate and has a businessman’s instinct for a good deal. He’s tried to buy Greenland before. The US has bought Alaska before. Why not Crimea and the Donbas?
Previous administrations have fought losing wars in Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq. Why not win wars in Europe?
